The 2026 World Cup hosts open Group D when United States vs Paraguay kicks off on Friday, June 12 at 9:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM PT, with a packed SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles set for the first night of the United States’ home World Cup.
Our United States vs Paraguay prediction starts with the stakes. A strong start matters in a four-team group, and the hosts want three points before facing Australia and Turkey. Paraguay arrive back on the World Cup stage for the first time since 2010, and they will be happy to frustrate.
The pressure sits with the home side. Pochettino’s group carries the weight of a nation on the opening weekend, and a slow start would turn the volume up quickly. Paraguay, by contrast, can play with freedom and lean on the structure that got them through CONMEBOL qualifying.
bet365 prices the United States at +100 to win, with the draw at +240 and Paraguay out at +275. That line makes the hosts narrow favorites rather than a lock, and it reflects how stubborn Paraguay can be.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price United States at 50%, the draw at 28%, and Paraguay at 24%. Full breakdown below.
United States vs Paraguay: Best Bets & Predictions
We side with the hosts, but the goal markets point toward a controlled, low-scoring opener rather than a comfortable win.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States to Win | +100 @ bet365 (50%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Home advantage and a deeper pool of in-form attackers give the hosts the edge on opening night at SoFi Stadium. |
| Correct Score: 1-0 United States | +650 @ bet365 (13%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Opening games are cagey, and a disciplined Paraguay back line built around Gustavo Gómez keeps the margin slim. |
| Christian Pulisic anytime scorer | Check bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Pulisic scored eight times in Serie A for AC Milan this season and is the most likely source of a goal for the hosts. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -138 @ bet365 (58%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Tournament openers tend to be tight, and Paraguay sit deep and slow the tempo to protect the result. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -111 @ bet365 (52%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Paraguay rarely give much away, so a clean sheet for one side is the likeliest path to the result. |
Our approach: Start with the United States to win, then add Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score No for a tighter, correlated play on a controlled opener.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi has United States as the favourite. Traders are pricing United States at 50% to win, the draw at 28%, and Paraguay at 24%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has United States at 80% to qualify from Group D and 40% to win it.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 16% | 38% | 25% | 16% | 8% | 2% | 2% |
| Paraguay | 34% | 37% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Group D — 2026 FIFA World Cup
Group D pairs the hosts with Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey. The table below reflects the draw rather than any played fixtures, with all four teams level on zero before kick-off. For the full bracket and group breakdown, see our World Cup 2026 hub.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paraguay | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Christian Pulisic (United States): The AC Milan forward scored eight goals and added four assists in Serie A this season, and he is the clearest creative and goal threat the hosts carry.
- Folarin Balogun (United States): The Monaco striker netted 13 times in Ligue 1 this season, giving Pochettino a genuine center forward to lead the line at SoFi Stadium.
- Miguel Almirón (Paraguay): Back at Atlanta United, the winger produced six goals and seven assists in 31 starts in MLS last season and remains Paraguay’s main outlet on the break.
- Julio Enciso (Paraguay): The Strasbourg playmaker recorded three goals and six assists in Ligue 1 this season, and his ability between the lines gives Paraguay a spark in the final third.
Head-to-Head
The United States hold the edge in this series, with five wins, two draws, and two defeats from nine meetings. They also won the most recent encounter, a 2-1 friendly success in November 2025, and have not lost to Paraguay since 2011.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | United States 2-1 Paraguay | Friendly |
| Mar 28, 2018 | United States 1-0 Paraguay | Friendly |
| Jun 11, 2016 | Paraguay 0-1 United States | Copa América Centenario |
| Mar 29, 2011 | United States 0-1 Paraguay | Friendly |
| Jul 2, 2007 | United States 1-3 Paraguay | Copa América |
Form Coming Into the Tournament
The United States reach the finals automatically as co-hosts, which has shaped a long runway of friendlies and Concacaf assignments rather than a qualifying grind. That brings a trade-off: plenty of preparation, but fewer high-pressure games to sharpen the edge. Pochettino leans on a European-based core, with Pulisic, Balogun, and Weston McKennie giving the side real quality, and the SoFi opener is the night they have been building toward.
Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, having come through CONMEBOL qualifying under Gustavo Alfaro with a clear, disciplined identity. They defend deep, stay compact, and look to hurt teams on the counter through Almirón and Enciso. The challenge now is matching that qualifying steel to the intensity of a host-nation opener on the road.
United States vs Paraguay Prediction
This has the makings of a tight, controlled night for the hosts. The United States should see more of the ball and carry the better attacking threat, but Paraguay are well organized and rarely beaten easily, so the margin looks slim. Our lean is the hosts and a low-scoring game, so back the United States to win at +100 with bet365. For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 outright odds page tracks the title picture, and you can read our full bet365 review before you bet. Kick-off is 9:00 PM ET at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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