Iraq open their 2026 FIFA World Cup against Norway on Tuesday, June 16 at 6:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM CT / 3:00 PM PT, a Group I tie at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough that doubles as a homecoming for two long-absent nations.
Our Iraq vs Norway prediction starts with the wait. Iraq are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1986, while Norway have ended a 28-year absence stretching back to 1998. Both arrive carrying a story, but only one carries Erling Haaland.
This is the night Haaland finally gets his World Cup debut, and the bookmakers expect him to make it count. Norway tore through qualifying without dropping a single match, and the Lions of Mesopotamia land as clear underdogs against one of Europe’s most dangerous attacks.
bet365 prices Norway at -450 to win, with the draw at +525 and Iraq out at +1100. That line reflects the gulf in attacking quality, though an opening game against an organized underdog always carries a little tension for the favorite.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Iraq at 7%, the draw at 13%, and Norway at 82%. Full breakdown below.
Iraq vs Norway: Best Bets & Predictions
We lean firmly toward Norway, and the goal markets point to control rather than a shootout.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway to Win | -450 @ bet365 (82%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Norway won all eight qualifiers and scored 37 goals doing it, far more firepower than Iraq can match. |
| Correct Score: 2-0 Norway | +5000 @ bet365 (2%) | ⭐⭐ | A controlled win to nil fits a disciplined Iraq side that will sit deep and protect the box. |
| Erling Haaland anytime scorer | Check bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Haaland scored 16 goals in qualifying, double the next-best mark in Europe, and leads the line on his World Cup debut. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | +130 @ bet365 (43%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | An opener with one clear favorite often turns cagey, and Iraq will park men behind the ball early. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -175 @ bet365 (64%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Iraq managed just one goal across both intercontinental play-off legs, so a blank against Norway is live. |
Our approach: Start with Norway to win, then add Haaland anytime and lean Under 2.5 with Both Teams to Score No for a tight, favorite-led script.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi points firmly toward Norway. Traders are pricing Iraq at 7% to win, the draw at 13%, and Norway at 82%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 89% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Norway | 13% | 34% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 3% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Group I — 2026 FIFA World Cup
Group I pairs Iraq and Norway with France and Senegal. The table below reflects the draw rather than any played fixtures, with all four teams level on zero before the opener. For the full bracket and group breakdown, see our World Cup 2026 hub.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Iraq | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Erling Haaland (Norway): The Manchester City striker scored 16 goals in World Cup qualifying, twice the tally of any other player in Europe, and he reaches his first World Cup at the peak of his powers.
- Alexander Sørloth (Norway): The Atletico Madrid forward led his club’s La Liga scoring charts with 13 goals this season, giving Norway a second genuine penalty-box threat alongside Haaland.
- Martin Ødegaard (Norway): The Arsenal captain also wears the armband for Norway, and his passing range from the number 10 role is the supply line that feeds both strikers.
- Ali Al-Hamadi (Iraq): The striker opened the scoring in Iraq’s 2-1 intercontinental play-off win over Bolivia that sealed qualification, and he carries the central threat for an underdog who must take their chances.
Head-to-Head
This is the first senior meeting between Iraq and Norway. The two national teams have never faced each other in a competitive or friendly international, so there is no head-to-head record to lean on heading into Foxborough.
Form Coming Into the Tournament
Norway arrive in irresistible shape. They won all eight of their UEFA qualifiers and scored 37 goals along the way, sealing their place with a 4-1 win away to Italy in which Haaland struck twice. This is the country’s first World Cup since 1998, and a golden generation built around Haaland, Sørloth and Ødegaard lands with real momentum.
Iraq are at a World Cup for the first time since 1986, a 40-year wait ended in dramatic fashion. As the 48th and final qualifier, they edged Bolivia 2-1 in an intercontinental play-off in Monterrey, with Ali Al-Hamadi and Aymen Hussein on target. They are organized and resilient, but the step up to this attack is steep.
Iraq vs Norway Prediction
Norway should have far too much for Iraq, and a disciplined underdog points toward control rather than chaos. Our lean is a comfortable Norway win without conceding, so back Norway to win at -450 with bet365. For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 outright odds page tracks the title picture, and you can read our full bet365 review before you bet. For another Group-stage angle, see our Mexico vs South Africa preview and our wider soccer predictions. Kick-off is 6:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER