Everton finish the home programme on Monday night under the lights at Hill Dickinson Stadium. They host a Manchester City side that has just put a serious dent in Arsenal’s Premier League title push.
Our Everton vs Manchester City prediction has the visitors winning 1-2. Haaland to score and BTTS Yes is the natural pairing under the Hill Dickinson lights.
The Toffees have won once in their last five and look short of attacking ideas. City have won three on the spin and are snapping at the leaders’ heels with games in hand still to use.
Kick-off is 8 PM BST (3PM ET) on Monday 4 May 2026, the closing fixture of Premier League Matchday 35.
Bet365 has Manchester City a strong odds-on favourite at -209, with Everton out to +500 and the draw +375. The reverse fixture at the Etihad in October finished 2-0 to City. The Toffees haven’t beaten Pep Guardiola’s side in any of their last six meetings (W0 D1 L5).
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | -209 @ bet365 (67.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Three straight wins, including over Arsenal at the Etihad on April 19. Everton have lost three of their last five and managed just one win in eight |
| Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer | -188 @ bet365 (65.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | City’s top scorer has been a near-constant in the lineup (31 starts, 2,688 minutes). Everton have conceded in nine of their last ten |
| Manchester City Over 2.5 goals | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | City have scored 2+ in every one of their last three; Everton are leaking late at home and chasing the game tends to open up |
| Rayan Cherki anytime goalscorer | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | 10 assists this season but starting to find the net himself. Plus money on a player who’s a regular feature off the bench in attacking phases |
| Correct Score: 1-2 Manchester City | +800 @ bet365 (11.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | City have outscored Everton 13-2 across the last six meetings and have scored 2+ in every one of their last three. Hill Dickinson under the lights will be loud enough to drag a goal out of the home side. But a City two-goal away win with an Everton consolation matches the run-in pattern. |
| Both teams to score — Yes | -134 @ bet365 (57.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | City have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last four away games and Everton have scored in seven of their last nine at home. With a City attack scoring at least twice in every recent fixture, the BTTS line is the cleanest pairing for the 1-2 read. |
Our approach: Manchester City to win with Haaland anytime goalscorer is the clean parlay at bet365. The 1-2 City correct-score line stands up as the value play if you want to swing for the bigger return.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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The block below pulls live Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on Everton vs Manchester City alongside the implied win-probability split. Holding those crowd-funded numbers next to the bet365 lines higher up the page is a quick way to read the room. When prediction-market pricing diverges from the sportsbook, the gap is where the sharper read usually sits.
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Season Form & Standings
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 72 | 40 | +32 | 70 |
| Everton | 13 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 39 |
Arsenal sit top on 73 points with a game more played; City’s win at the Etihad on April 19 closed the gap and the run-in is wide open. Everton are 13 points clear of the drop and looking up towards a European spot.
Potential Match-Winners
Manchester City
- Erling Haaland (Striker) — 31 starts, 2,688 minutes; 7 assists. The Norwegian is comfortably City’s primary goal threat and has played in every meaningful fixture of the run-in.
- Rayan Cherki (Attacking Midfielder) — 17 starts, 1,559 minutes; 10 assists, the highest in the City squad. Has become the chief creator since Kevin De Bruyne’s departure. Adds a goal threat from the edge of the box.
- Phil Foden (Attacking Midfielder) — 21 starts, 1,832 minutes; 3 assists. Back in the starting eleven for the title push and producing his usual late-season uptick in goal involvements.
- Jeremy Doku (Attacking Midfielder) — 16 starts, 1,484 minutes; 5 assists. The matchup against Patterson or Ait-Nouri’s opposite number on Everton’s right is one to watch. Doku has been City’s most direct wide threat.
Everton
- Beto (Striker) — 14 starts, 1,352 minutes across 33 appearances; 1 assist. Everton’s most reliable centre-forward output this season. The obvious focal point against a City back line that has been dipped into recently.
- Iliman Ndiaye (Attacking Midfielder) — 28 starts, 2,426 minutes; 3 assists. Ever-present in the front line and Everton’s best at carrying the ball into the final third from deep.
- Jack Grealish (Attacking Midfielder) — 18 starts, 1,631 minutes; 6 assists, joint-team-high. Facing his parent club for the second time this season after the loan deal in summer 2025.
- James Garner (Defensive Midfielder) — 34 starts, 3,054 minutes; 6 assists. The metronome — whenever Everton have created chances this season Garner has often been the one threading the pass.
Head-to-Head
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | Premier League | Manchester City 2-0 Everton |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Premier League | Everton 0-2 Manchester City |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Premier League | Manchester City 1-1 Everton |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Premier League | Manchester City 2-0 Everton |
| 27 Dec 2023 | Premier League | Everton 1-3 Manchester City |
| 14 May 2023 | Premier League | Everton 0-3 Manchester City |
City have taken 16 points from the last 18 available against Everton (W5 D1 L0) and outscored them 13-2 across that stretch. Everton’s last win in this fixture stretches all the way back to February 2017.
Recent Form
Everton: L L D W L (most recent first)
- 25 Apr 2026: West Ham 2-1 Everton (A)
- 19 Apr 2026: Everton 1-2 Liverpool (H)
- 11 Apr 2026: Brentford 2-2 Everton (A)
- 21 Mar 2026: Everton 3-0 Chelsea (H)
- 14 Mar 2026: Arsenal 2-0 Everton (A)
The pattern-break is the 3-0 over Chelsea on 21 March 2026, but it sits inside a longer run of one win in eight league games for David Moyes’ side. Everton have scored more than once in just two of their last ten. They have not kept a clean sheet at the new ground since beating Burnley 2-0 on 3 March 2026.
Manchester City: W W W D D (most recent first)
- 22 Apr 2026: Burnley 0-1 Manchester City (A)
- 19 Apr 2026: Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal (H)
- 12 Apr 2026: Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City (A)
- 14 Mar 2026: West Ham 1-1 Manchester City (A)
- 4 Mar 2026: Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham Forest (H)
Three wins on the spin including the title-relevant Etihad result against Arsenal. The Chelsea performance was the high mark, a 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge in which Cherki and Haaland combined repeatedly. There’s no question which side is in form coming into Monday.
Everton vs Manchester City Prediction
The numbers, the form, the H2H, the squad depth: it all points the same way. Everton at home are still a tough night out for plenty of teams. But City under Pep Guardiola, in late-season title-chase mode, are a different proposition entirely. The Arsenal scalp on April 19 reset the title race. Everton can scrap and they can be physical. Hill Dickinson under the lights will be loud. But I can’t see the Toffees scoring twice against a City defence that has tightened up. All in all, City to win comfortably. Haaland on the scoresheet, and Cherki good enough plus money to take a swing at as well. 1-2 City looks the right line.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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