Brighton host Wolves at the Amex on Saturday, May 9 at 10:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM CT / 7:00 AM PT, and the gap between the two sides is as wide as anything you’ll see this season.
The Seagulls sit 8th in the Premier League on 50 points, comfortable in mid-table and still dreaming of a back-door push at European football. Wolves are 20th on 18 points and mathematically relegated. The season’s last business is dignity.
Brighton are three points behind 7th-placed Brentford in the chase for the Conference League berth, with three matches left and a kind home record to lean on. Fabian Hürzeler’s side beat Chelsea 3-0 here on April 21 and Liverpool 2-1 in March. They lost 3-1 at Newcastle last weekend, but the Amex remains the place where their season has held shape. Against a visiting team with nothing to play for and a goal difference of -38, this is a heavy favorite for a reason.
Bet365 pricing reflects that gulf. Brighton are -350 in the Match Result market, draw is +500, Wolves are +800.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to win | -350 @ bet365 (78%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Brighton are 7-3-7 at home this season; Wolves are mathematically down with a -38 goal difference and have lost three of their last five away from Molineux. |
| Brighton 3-0 | +800 @ bet365 (11%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Aligns with our Over 2.5 and BTTS No reads — Brighton beat Chelsea 3-0 at the Amex on April 21, and Wolves have been shut out in three of their last five road trips. |
| Danny Welbeck anytime scorer | -125 @ bet365 (56%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 13 league goals this season from 8.92 xG — Welbeck is Brighton’s primary penalty-box threat and short for a reason. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -188 @ bet365 (65%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Wolves have leaked 63 league goals this season; Brighton have scored in five of their last six at the Amex. |
| Both Teams to Score — No | -125 @ bet365 (56%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Wolves have scored just 25 goals in 35 league matches and were shut out 4-0 at West Ham and 3-0 at Leeds in their last two road games. |
Lean Brighton, lean home, and stack the goal-line. The straight Brighton win is the play; Welbeck and Over 2.5 are the natural extensions.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
Kalshi and Polymarket both lean clearly to the home side. Wolves’ relegation has emptied the visitor market; Brighton’s home record does the rest. The line is decisive rather than tight, with the goals markets nudging the over — Brighton’s scoring rate at the Amex remains strong and Wolves have shipped freely on the road. Use the widget below to compare the two providers’ Match Result reads in one view.
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Season Form & Standings
Brighton sit 8th, three points off Brentford and the Conference League place. Wolves are 20th and already down. The full Premier League table tells the story plainly.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 35 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 50 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 20 | 35 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Danny Welbeck (Brighton): 13 league goals from 8.92 xG in 34 matches — Brighton’s leading scorer is meaningfully overperforming his expected output and gets the ball in the box late.
- Yankuba Minteh (Brighton): 10 big chances created and 60 successful dribbles in 33 matches; the Seagulls’ most direct creator and a steady supply line for Welbeck.
- Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton): 3.76 xA across 24 matches and a per-game dribble rate that turns Wolves’ wing-backs into a problem.
- Rodrigo Gomes (Wolves): The 21-year-old has three Premier League goals this season and is one of a few threats left in the visitors’ line-up.
Head-to-Head
Brighton have dominated this fixture across the past five meetings, winning two and drawing three. The October 2025 draw at Molineux ended 1-1; the previous May the Seagulls won 2-0 at the same ground.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| October 5, 2025 | Wolves 1-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| May 10, 2025 | Wolves 0-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| October 26, 2024 | Brighton 2-2 Wolves | Premier League |
| January 22, 2024 | Brighton 0-0 Wolves | Premier League |
| August 19, 2023 | Wolves 1-4 Brighton | Premier League |
Recent Form
Brighton & Hove Albion — W W D W L
- March 21, 2026: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (W, home)
- April 11, 2026: Burnley 0-2 Brighton (W, away)
- April 18, 2026: Tottenham 2-2 Brighton (D, away)
- April 21, 2026: Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (W, home)
- May 2, 2026: Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (L, away)
The Newcastle defeat aside, this is a settled team. Three wins in five and a goal-rich pair of home performances against Chelsea and Liverpool. The Amex is doing the heavy lifting.
Wolverhampton Wanderers — D L L L D
- March 16, 2026: Brentford 2-2 Wolves (D, away)
- April 10, 2026: West Ham 4-0 Wolves (L, away)
- April 18, 2026: Leeds 3-0 Wolves (L, away)
- April 25, 2026: Wolves 0-1 Tottenham (L, home)
- May 2, 2026: Wolves 1-1 Sunderland (D, home)
One win in their last 12 league matches, two clean sheets in their last 10, and back-to-back away thrashings at West Ham and Leeds. The Sunderland draw at home was a flicker; the road form is grim.
Brighton vs Wolves Prediction
Brighton’s home record, Welbeck’s penalty-box edge, and Wolves’ road numbers all point the same way. Sunderland vs Manchester United at the same kick-off time is a livelier coin-flip; this one is not. Take Brighton at bet365‘s -350 as the spine, layer on Welbeck anytime at -125, and the Over at -188 is the natural three-leg cover. Final score: Brighton 2-0. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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