Paraguay opened the 2026 World Cup with a 4-1 defeat to USA at the SoFi Stadium. With two group matches still to play, Paraguay will need a result in their next fixture to keep their tournament path open.
Paraguay World Cup 2026 odds sit at +30000, an implied probability of 0.33%. Paraguay arrive at North America with the squad, the path, and the question the market has not yet answered. Whether La Albirroja produce a knockout-stage moment or settle for the group-stage tour depends on the next two months.
Paraguay have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group D and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Paraguay’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-13 | USA | L 4-1 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 64% to qualify from Group D, and 17% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Paraguay’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 37% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Paraguay odds to win the World Cup
At odds of around 300/1 with most bookmakers, it’s clear that Paraguay are not one of the main contenders to win this summer’s World Cup – but nor are they complete underdogs, either.
The likes of Haiti and Jordan are available at a much longer price than la Albirojja and you can find teams like Egypt and Ivory Coast at a similar price to the South American side which may give you some idea as to where the bookmakers rank this side at the moment.
It helps that they don’t really face any of the major footballing superpowers in the group stages, giving Gustavo Alfaro and his side a strong chance of progression, particularly with the new schedule allowing three teams to progress from the majority of the groups.
A run to the quarter-finals ala 2010 however, may be beyond this current crop of Paraguayan players.
Paraguay odds to win Group D
Group D hands Paraguay USA as the top seed, Turkey as the second-favorite, and Australia as the long-odds outsider. Paraguay arrive as third-favorite in a competitive field.
The Polymarket market in the widget below has USA clear, Turkey the realistic challenger, and Paraguay in the third-favorite band. With three teams from most groups advancing under the expanded format, qualification remains very much in play.
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Paraguay stage of elimination odds
Despite making Paraguay third favorites to win Group D, the bookmakers actually do expect them to progress. Eight of the 12 groups will see the team that finishes third go through, giving the South American side a strong chance at odds of 2/5 of making it to the knock-out stages.
Only a fourth-placed finish would guarantee Paraguay being knocked out at 7/4 and given that this is one of the best-matched groups of the tournament, the bookies clearly expect teams to take points off each other in this group and this to be one of the groups that sees three teams progress. Of course, a top two finish will secure qualification to the next round regardless which is definitely possible for this side.
| Market | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| To be knocked out in the group stage | +175 |
| To qualify from the group | -250 |
Paraguay World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds
Goals are an issue for this Paraguay side. No player in the squad has managed to reach 10 international goals as yet with Miguel Almiron’s total of nine the highest of any current Paraguay player. As a result, it’s not a surprise that none of their players are considered to be genuine contenders in the Golden Boot chase this summer.
The only two players you can get odds on are striker Antonio Sanabria who’s priced at 100/1 with BetMGM and Strasbourg’s Julio Enciso, who you can back at around 350/1 with 10bet.
You can find full World Cup Top Goalscorer odds here
| Player | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| +10000 | N/A |
| N/A | +35000 |
Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Paraguay are in Group D alongside USA, Turkey and Australia. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Paraguay play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Gustavo Alfaro is Argentine and took charge in 2024 after leading Ecuador to the 2022 World Cup round of 16.
Paraguay’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +30000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.3%. Paraguay sit in the outsider tier, having ended a 16-year qualifying drought. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Paraguay’s best World Cup finish remains the 2010 quarterfinal under Gerardo Martino. Returning after 16 years and reaching the round of 32 from Group D would be the realistic target. Their toughest group opponent is the co-host USA.