New Zealand drew 2-2 with Iran at the SoFi Stadium in their 2026 World Cup opener. The point keeps options open with two group games still to play.
New Zealand World Cup 2026 odds put the All Whites at -188 to lift the trophy, an implied probability of 65.22%. The market reads them as outsiders, but the squad and the schedule give New Zealand the chance to dictate which kind of outsider story this becomes.
New Zealand have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group G and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
New Zealand’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-16 | Iran | D 2-2 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 32% to qualify from Group G, and 3% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices New Zealand’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 70% | 26% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
New Zealand odds to win the World Cup
Winning the World Cup is basically impossible for this New Zealand outfit and that is reflected in the odds available from the bookmakers. You can get odds as long as 1500/1 for New Zealand to win the tournament while teams like Romania and Northern Ireland, who still have to go through qualifying play-offs, are only available at around 1000/1.
Not many players in this All Whites squad are playing at a particularly high domestic level, with a handful featuring in the EFL such as Port Vale’s Ben Waine and Millwall goalkeeper Max Crocombe – but an ageing defence includes the 37 year old Michael Boxall and 35 year old Tommy Smith, who now players for National League outfit Braintree Town.
The inclusion of a second New Zealand outfit in Australia’s A-League is certainly likely to do wonders for football in the country in the coming years. Auckland FC players such as Logan Rogerson, Nando Pijnaker and Francis de Vries will expect to be in the squad alongside the usual crop of Wellington Phoenix stars.
Still however, the star name remains Chris Wood. The Nottingham Forest striker is already his nation’s all-time leading goalscorer with 45 international goals and he’ll likely become their most-capped player before the tournament kicks off, fitness depending. A nation’s hopes will be pinned on the 34 year old who has struggled for fitness with his Premier League club so far in the 2025/26 campaign.
The extended tournament has led to at least one qualifying place being assigned to the OFC, which made New Zealand’s task much easier this time around. Where they have traditionally lost out to opponents in the Americas in an inter-confederation play-off before, the Kiwis avoided that altogether this time and cruised through to the finals – with rivals Australia choosing to play in the Asian Football Confederation instead.
But the reality is that those games don’t offer much of a test to this New Zealand side who will now need to dramatically step up their game against much stronger opponents this summer.
New Zealand odds to win Group G
New Zealand are the outsiders of Group G, with Belgium the heavy favorite and Egypt the realistic alternative. Iran sit between New Zealand and the contender band.
The Polymarket market in the widget below shows the live picture across Group G. The realistic New Zealand target is to finish third and survive into the Round of 32 via the third-place qualifier path. Topping the group would be an extraordinary outcome.
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New Zealand group stage qualification odds
Hugely popular bookmaker bet365 are offering odds on every team’s group stage performance in terms of whether they’ll be able to progress into the knock-out stages or not. Given that three teams will qualify from the majority of groups at this tournament, the bookmakers have given New Zealand a reasonable chance of making it through to the knock-out stages for the first time at 11/8. Alternatively, you can get odds of 8/15 on the All Whites to be knocked out in the group stage as expected.
| Market | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| To be knocked out in the group stage | -188 |
| To qualify from the group | +138 |
New Zealand World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds
Unsurprisingly there’s only one man in the New Zealand considered to be in the running for the World Cup top goalscorer gong by the bookmakers. Chris Wood is priced at around 200/1, which reflects the fact the bookmakers don’t expect the All Whites to play enough games for any player to really threaten the Golden Boot market.
At the time of writing, Wood has only managed eight Premier League appearances this season due to injury, but when fit he remains a goalscoring threat having scored 20 times in 36 Nottingham Forest appearances last term. He is New Zealand’s all-time top goalscorer with 45 goals in 88 appearances and he’s been in particularly good form for his nation in the last two years, scoring 11 times in 14 outings.
You can find full World Cup Top Goalscorer odds here
| Player | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| +20000 | +20000 |
New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
New Zealand are in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and Iran. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
New Zealand play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Darren Bazeley is English and took charge in 2024, bringing experience from the Australian youth system.
New Zealand’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +100000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.1%. New Zealand sit at the bottom of the outright market, aligned with OFC sides without modern knockout history. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
New Zealand went unbeaten in three matches at South Africa 2010 (three draws) but did not advance. Their other previous appearance was Spain 1982. With the expanded 48-team format, breaking the group-stage ceiling is the realistic target — Group G with Belgium, Egypt and Iran is demanding.