Iran drew 2-2 with New Zealand at the SoFi Stadium in their 2026 World Cup opener. The point keeps options open with two group games still to play.
Iran World Cup 2026 odds put Team Melli at +50000 to lift the trophy, an implied probability of 0.2%. The market reads them as outsiders, but the squad and the schedule give Iran the chance to dictate which kind of outsider story this becomes.
Iran have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group ? and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Iran’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-16 | New Zealand | D 2-2 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 61% to qualify from Group G, and 11% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Iran’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 38% | 46% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Iran odds to win the World Cup
With odds of 500/1, Iran aren’t absolute outsiders, but you wouldn’t count them among the darkhorses like Japan (100/1), Denmark (200/1) or Turkey (250/1) either.
They’re joined on 500s by the likes of South Korea, Ghana and Ukraine, so they’re definitely being viewed as a dangerous side in the group stage, capable of springing a surprise.
Iran odds to win Group G
Iran sit third-favorite in Group G. Belgium are the heavy market choice and Egypt the realistic alternative. New Zealand fill out the group as outsiders.
The Polymarket market in the widget below shows the live picture. With three of four sides typically advancing, Iran’s realistic path is qualification via a third-place finish into the Round of 32.
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Iran stage of elimination odds
Iran are 1/2 on to make it out of the group stage. This would be a first in the nation’s history, but it reflects their superiority over New Zealand. A comfortable win over the All Whites could all but guarantee one of the best third-place spots, while Iran are well capable of surprising both Belgium and Egypt.
| Group qualification | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -200 |
| No | +150 |
Iran World Cup top goalscorer odds
It’ll come as no surprise to see Mehdi Taremi as Iran’s best bet for the World Cup Golden Boot award. The former Inter and Porto striker — now at Olympiacos, where he’s third in the Super League scoring charts — is priced at 150/1 by Bet365.
Iran at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Iran are in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Iran play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Amir Ghalenoei is Iranian and took charge in 2023, bringing extensive experience from clubs in the Iranian Premier League.
Iran’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +25000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.5%. Iran sit in the outsider tier, aligned with AFC regulars without group-stage breakthroughs. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Iran have never advanced past the group stage in six previous World Cups — the worst active record among the most consistent AFC qualifiers. With the expanded 48-team format and the country’s deepest squad in years, breaking that ceiling is Team Melli’s most realistic shot in history.