Anfield is the setting with Liverpool fourth in the Premier League, Chelsea ninth, and both attacks running on fumes.
Liverpool host Chelsea on Saturday, May 9 at 7:30 AM ET / 6:30 AM CT / 4:30 AM PT, with the Reds chasing a Champions League finish and the Blues still in the European chase but limping into the run-in.
The picture either side of this fixture is messier than the table suggests. Liverpool sit fourth on 58 points and ahead of Aston Villa on goal difference for the last Champions League berth, but they arrive without Mohamed Salah (muscle, due back later this month), Hugo Ekitiké (Achilles, season over) and probably Alexander Isak, who is rated a 75% doubt with a groin issue. Chelsea, ninth on 48 points, have lost five league games in a row and travel north with their own injury issues with goalkeeper Robert Sánchez, Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho doubtful, with Jamie Gittens and Estêvão already ruled out.
The market reads it as a Liverpool home favorite, but a low-scoring one — and that is where this preview’s angle lives.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | +175 @ bet365 (36.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Salah out, Ekitiké done for the season, Isak doubtful — Liverpool’s xG output thins out, and Chelsea have managed two goals or fewer in eight of their last ten league games. |
| Liverpool to win | -120 @ bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Anfield home advantage holds even with a depleted front line, and Chelsea arrive on a five-game losing run with a similarly bruised attack. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | +162 @ bet365 (38.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Chelsea’s attack has been blunt through their five-game losing run, scoring once or fewer in four of those games, and a depleted Liverpool back line still has Van Dijk and Konaté in front of Alisson at home. |
| Federico Chiesa to score anytime | +200 @ bet365 (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | With Salah, Ekitiké and Gakpo all unavailable or doubtful, Chiesa is the senior forward most likely to lead the line at Anfield and price reflects the start. |
| Correct Score: 1-0 Liverpool | +1200 @ bet365 (7.7%) | ⭐⭐ | Lines up cleanly with the Liverpool win and Under 2.5 angle: Anfield edge, Chelsea’s depleted attack, and Salah’s absence all point to a low-scoring home win. |
Our approach treats the Under 2.5 line as the cleanest angle in a stripped-back fixture on both sides, with Liverpool to win the more conservative core call. Use bet365 for these markets and check the latest bet365 review for current welcome offers.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
Kalshi and Polymarket price this Anfield kick-off in line with the sportsbook book — Liverpool favoured, but the line softer than the home record alone would suggest, with Salah’s absence and Chelsea’s run of defeats pulling the price closer to value than blowout. Goals markets lean modestly under, in keeping with the depleted forward lines on both sides. The widget below merges the two venues’ Match Result book; provider toggle helps when one venue moves on news flow before the other.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Season Form & Standings
Liverpool sit fourth in the Premier League standings on 58 points, level with Aston Villa but ahead on goal difference. Chelsea are ninth on 48 points, six off the top six and the European race below the Champions League places.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 4 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 47 | +12 | 58 |
| Chelsea | 9 | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 54 | 48 | +6 | 48 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Federico Chiesa (Liverpool): Senior forward expected to step up at Anfield with Salah, Ekitiké and Gakpo all sidelined or doubtful — bet365 prices him at +200 to score.
- Florian Wirtz (Liverpool): Five goals and three assists from 27 starts, with 6.28 xG and 6.02 xA — the creative load passes through him with Salah missing.
- Liam Delap (Chelsea): Lead striker option with Palmer doubtful and Estêvão, Gittens and Neto unavailable — bet365 +200 to score, and Chelsea need a focal point for the road trip.
- João Pedro (Chelsea): Top scorer with 15 league goals and five assists, plus 33 successful dribbles — a genuine handful even on a road trip.
Head-to-Head
Liverpool edged the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge 1-0 thanks to a first-half goal earlier this season. The wider record is tighter than that one-off result, with Chelsea winning three of the last 10 meetings to Liverpool’s two and five draws.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| October 4, 2025 | Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| May 4, 2025 | Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| October 20, 2024 | Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| January 31, 2024 | Liverpool 4-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| August 13, 2023 | Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
Recent Form
Liverpool — L W L W L
- March 21, 2026: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (L, away)
- April 11, 2026: Liverpool 2-0 Fulham (W, home)
- April 19, 2026: Everton 2-1 Liverpool (L, away)
- April 25, 2026: Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace (W, home)
- May 3, 2026: Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool (L, away)
The pattern is brutally simple: home wins, road defeats. Liverpool have won at Anfield in their last two visits and lost on each of their last three away days, which is exactly the home-form prop the Reds need leaning on with their first-choice attack stripped back.
Chelsea — L L L L L
- March 21, 2026: Everton 3-0 Chelsea (L, away)
- April 12, 2026: Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City (L, home)
- April 18, 2026: Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United (L, home)
- April 21, 2026: Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (L, away)
- May 4, 2026: Chelsea 1-3 Nottingham Forest (L, home)
Five league defeats on the spin, and the Blues have conceded two or more in four of the five. The bigger picture is uglier than the mathematically-safe table position: Chelsea travel to Anfield as the last team in the Premier League any neutral would back to keep a clean sheet right now.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction
Take the pricing at face value and Liverpool are reasonable favorites in the Premier League Saturday lunchtime slot, but the angle that interests us is the goal total. With Salah out, Ekitiké done for the season and Isak a major doubt, Liverpool’s attack is functional rather than fluent, and Chelsea’s road form and missing forwards point the same way. Backing Under 2.5 goals at +175 with bet365 is the cleanest play, with a Liverpool home win the supporting view. For more weekend reading, our Fulham vs Bournemouth preview covers another tight matchday-36 fixture.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER