Egypt face Iran in the Group G finale on Friday, June 26 at 11:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM CT / 8:00 PM PT at Lumen Field in Seattle, the Pharaohs needing only a draw to top the group and Team Melli needing a win — or a draw plus a Belgium slip — to follow them into the round of 32.
Egypt arrive top of World Cup 2026 Group G on four points after Mohamed Salah’s stoppage-time penalty rescued a draw with Belgium on matchday one, then a Marmoush-and-Salah masterclass took apart New Zealand 3-1 in Vancouver. Hossam Hassan’s side can finish first with any non-loss; a Belgium win over the All Whites in the parallel kick-off would still leave the Pharaohs needing a point to be sure of top spot, which is the only seeding scenario that keeps them on the kinder side of the bracket.
Iran sit second, level on points with Belgium but ahead on goals scored after back-to-back draws — 2-2 with New Zealand in Inglewood and a cagey 0-0 with Belgium in Los Angeles. Amir Ghalenoei’s side already have a captain problem: Ehsan Hajisafi picked up a second yellow card against Belgium and is suspended, with veteran cover Milad Mohammadi expected to slot in at left-back. Iran’s tournament odds have drifted as a result, and bet365 prices Egypt at +140 to win, the draw at +180, and Iran at +260 — a market lean towards the Pharaohs that the underlying numbers back up.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Egypt at 40%, the draw at 36%, and Iran at 25%. Full breakdown below.
Egypt vs Iran: Best Bets & Predictions
The shape of the bet is straightforward: Egypt are the better side, but Iran are hard to beat and rarely deliver clean games when they need a result.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt to Win | +140 @ bet365 (41.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The Pharaohs have outscored Iran 4-2 across the group and create the better chances — Salah and Mostafa Mohamed have combined for 4 goal involvements in 2 matches. |
| Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer | +187 @ bet365 (34.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Salah has 1 goal and 2 assists already at this World Cup, with 3 shots on target across 161 minutes; he leads Egypt for xG (0.7) and is the designated penalty taker. |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | +105 @ bet365 (48.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Egypt have conceded in both group games; Iran scored twice against New Zealand and Ramin Rezaeian has already chipped in with a goal and an assist from midfield. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐ | A value play more than a banker — Egypt’s MD2 win sailed past the line and Iran will have to open up if they fall behind. |
| Correct Score 2-1 Egypt | +1000 @ bet365 (9.1%) | ⭐⭐ | Squares the win pick with the BTTS lean — Egypt’s shape under Hassan tends to take a one-goal lead and manage it, and Iran almost always find a way to score against tired legs. |
Our approach: Anchor with Salah Anytime Goalscorer at +187, then layer Egypt to win and BTTS into a parlay for the +600-ish price; the 2-1 correct score is a small-stake top-up.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi has Egypt as the favourite. Traders are pricing Egypt at 40% to win, the draw at 36%, and Iran at 25%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has Egypt at 99% to qualify from Group G and 64% to win it, with Iran at 63% / 12%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 1% | 54% | 33% | 25% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| Iran | 41% | 45% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 4% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
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Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
World Cup Form & Standings
Egypt sit top of Group G on four points; Iran are level with Belgium on two but ahead on goals scored to hold second place. A draw sends Egypt through as group winners and leaves Iran depending on the Belgium-New Zealand result in the parallel kick-off.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| Iran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New Zealand | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Mohamed Salah (Egypt): The Liverpool forward has been Egypt’s pulse at this tournament — 1 goal, 2 assists and 3 shots on target across 161 minutes, with the team’s highest xG (0.7) and a 0.49 xA to go with it. He is the obvious load-bearing leg of any Egypt-themed bet.
- Omar Marmoush (Egypt): The Manchester City forward is bet365’s second-shortest goalscorer price at +260 for a reason — he has been Egypt’s most-direct ball-carrier off the right and ran New Zealand’s defensive line ragged in Vancouver.
- Mostafa Mohamed (Egypt): The Nantes striker has a goal and an assist already and matches Salah for xG at 0.83, with 2 shots on target from his 152 tournament minutes. A useful priced-up alternative to the Salah ticket.
- Mehdi Taremi (Iran): Yet to score at this World Cup but priced at +333 as Iran’s top goal threat. The Inter Milan forward is the player Egypt’s center backs will set up to deal with first.
- Ramin Rezaeian (Iran): Iran’s most productive outfielder so far — 1 goal, 1 assist, and 180 group-stage minutes from right-back. Iran’s set-piece deliveries run through him.
Recent Form
Egypt — D W (Group G)
- Jun 22, 2026: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt (W)
- Jun 15, 2026: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (D)
The Pharaohs have grown into the tournament: the Belgium draw was a smash-and-grab through a stoppage-time Salah penalty, then the MD2 win in Vancouver showed real attacking control — Salah, Marmoush and Mostafa Mohamed all on the scoresheet.
Iran — D D (Group G)
- Jun 21, 2026: Belgium 0-0 Iran (D)
- Jun 16, 2026: Iran 2-2 New Zealand (D)
Two draws and a back four that has not been broken open in 180 minutes. The 0-0 with Belgium at SoFi Stadium was Iran at their most disciplined — block deep, sit on a point, let Beiranvand do the rest. The Hajisafi suspension is a real wrinkle for matchday three.
Egypt vs Iran Prediction
The numbers line up behind the Pharaohs. Egypt have more goals, more xG, the in-form forward line and a tactical incentive — finishing first — that Iran cannot match. Iran’s draw routine will be harder to repeat against an opponent with this much edge from open play, and the Hajisafi suspension chips at their structure. Take Egypt to win, lean on Salah anytime, and shop the bet365 price on BTTS for the parlay. For the bigger tournament picture, the Egypt outright market still has value if you fancy them to grow into the knockouts.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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