Germany vs Ivory Coast wraps the Saturday MD2 slate of Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Saturday, June 20 at 4:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM CT / 1:00 PM PT, with the two sides meeting at BMO Field in Toronto.
Our Germany vs Ivory Coast prediction has a clear starting point. Germany blew Curaçao away 7-1 in their opener at NRG Stadium — the biggest scoreline of the tournament so far — while Ivory Coast ground out a 1-0 win over Ecuador at Lincoln Financial Field. Two wins, two very different shapes.
That sets the stakes. Both sides know a win all but books a place in the knockouts and starts the bigger contest of who finishes top of Group F. Germany have the goal-difference cushion and the better-looking attack; Ivory Coast have the defensive shape that will be harder for Julian Nagelsmann’s side to break than Curaçao’s was.
bet365 prices Germany at -182 to win, the draw at +320 and Ivory Coast out at +475. The line reflects the squad-depth gap, but Ivory Coast’s matchday-one performance was the kind that earns respect — and money on the under.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Germany at 65%, the draw at 20%, and Ivory Coast at 16%. Full breakdown below.
Germany vs Ivory Coast: Best Bets & Predictions
Germany are the right lean, but the value sits in the goal markets and the scorer props rather than the moneyline alone.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany to Win | -182 @ bet365 (65%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Germany hammered Curaçao 7-1 and arrive at the front of the class in this group. Ivory Coast are sharper than that opener suggested but the Dutch-Bundesliga spine of this German side carries the squad-depth gap. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -138 @ bet365 (58%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Germany have just scored seven goals in a single match and Ivory Coast’s win over Ecuador came with chances at both ends. Neither manager will park the bus from minute one. |
| Kai Havertz | +110 @ bet365 (48%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Havertz leads bet365’s anytime-scorer market and is Germany’s central striker under Julian Nagelsmann. He has the movement and finishing range to feast on chances created against a back four that gave Ecuador’s forwards openings. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -125 @ bet365 (56%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Germany conceded once against the lowest-ranked side in the group, and Ivory Coast have the pace in transition to find at least a moment against a German side that pushes its full-backs high. |
| Nick Woltemade | +140 @ bet365 (42%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Woltemade gives Nagelsmann a contrasting target option and sits joint-second behind Havertz in the scorer market. Expect rotation in the second half regardless of scoreline. |
Our approach: Germany to win, paired with Over 2.5 Goals and Havertz to score for a correlated route in.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Kalshi traders still favour Germany at 65% after the 7-1 demolition, with the tie at 20% and Ivory Coast at 16%. Both sides took the maximum from matchday one, so the market reflects squad depth rather than form.
Across the wider group, Germany sit comfortably to qualify and lead the group-winner market by a clear margin. Ivory Coast’s 1-0 win has them tracking through to the knockouts at a markedly higher implied rate than before kick-off.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 3% | 26% | 34% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 5% |
| Ivory Coast | 8% | 63% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Group F — 2026 FIFA World Cup
Both Germany and Ivory Coast took the maximum from their openers, so this MD2 fixture decides who heads the group. Ecuador and Curaçao sit at the bottom with everything to play for in their parallel fixture later in the day. For the full bracket and group breakdown, see our World Cup 2026 hub.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 3 |
| Ivory Coast | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Curaçao | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Kai Havertz (Germany): Havertz leads Germany’s anytime-scorer market at bet365 and is the central striker in Nagelsmann’s 4-2-3-1. He has the movement on the shoulder to convert the chances Germany create from wide.
- Florian Wirtz (Germany): Bayern’s playmaker controls the German midfield and arrives in form. He sits among the shortest priced for an anytime goal and is the line-breaking threat that pulled Curaçao’s shape apart on matchday one.
- Amad Diallo (Ivory Coast): The Manchester United winger gives the Ivorians their main attacking threat from wide. He is the player most likely to test a German full-back pushed high under Nagelsmann.
- Evann Guessand (Ivory Coast): Guessand offers Ivory Coast a direct line-leader and a target for the early ball into channels that hurt Ecuador’s centre-backs in their opener.
World Cup Form So Far
Germany — beat Curaçao 7-1 (June 14, NRG Stadium). The biggest scoreline of the group stage so far. Nagelsmann’s side scored at will once Havertz opened it up and never let Curaçao back in. The caveat: the opponent was the group’s weakest defensive unit by some distance. The way Germany moved the ball and pressed in the front third was the real read.
Ivory Coast — beat Ecuador 1-0 (June 14, Lincoln Financial Field). A measured, disciplined opener. Ivory Coast defended deep when they had to, broke quickly when the chance arrived, and saw out a 1-0 win against opponents who carried real attacking threat. Exactly the foundation a team needs to take into a tougher MD2 fixture.
Germany vs Ivory Coast Prediction
Germany should still control this. Their best players sit further forward than Ivory Coast’s and the attacking output we saw on matchday one is hard to argue with even if the opposition was poor. The risk: Ivory Coast’s shape will mean Germany have to be patient, and that opens the door for a Ivory Coast goal on the counter. Back Germany to win at -182 with bet365, paired with Over 2.5 Goals.
For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 outright odds page tracks the title picture, and you can read our full bet365 review before you bet. Kick-off is 4:00 PM ET at BMO Field, Toronto.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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