Our NHL season predictions for 2026-27, division by division, with the awards, the bracket and a Stanley Cup pick. Every call is built from where teams actually finished last season. No vibes.
These NHL season predictions lean on goal difference rather than points, because goal difference travels better from one year to the next. Where the two disagree, we have followed the goals.
The season opens on Tuesday 29 September and runs to 10 April. It is 84 games this year, up from 82, which is 1,344 games in total and the first change to the schedule length in three decades.
| Prediction | Our pick |
|---|---|
| Stanley Cup | Colorado Avalanche |
| Eastern champion | Carolina Hurricanes |
| Western champion | Colorado Avalanche |
| Best Canadian team | Montréal Canadiens |
| Hart Trophy | Connor McDavid |
| Calder Trophy | Gavin McKenna |
| Rocket Richard | Cole Caufield |
| Biggest riser | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Biggest faller | Buffalo Sabres |
How these NHL season predictions were built
Last season finished with Colorado on 121 points and a goal difference of plus 99, both the best in the league by a distance. Carolina won the Stanley Cup from second on 113. Vegas reached the final from 13th.
That last detail matters. A 13th-place team reached the final, and the Cup went to a club that did not top the standings, so treating the regular-season table as a ranking of contenders is a mistake. We have weighted goal difference more heavily than points, because it travels better from one season to the next.
Atlantic Division
| Predicted | Team | 2025-26 finish | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montréal Canadiens | 3rd | 106 | +27 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2nd | 106 | +59 |
| 3 | Buffalo Sabres | 1st | 109 | +47 |
| 4 | Ottawa Senators | 5th | 99 | +32 |
| 5 | Florida Panthers | 7th | 84 | -25 |
| 6 | Boston Bruins | 4th | 100 | +22 |
| 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 8th | 78 | -46 |
| 8 | Detroit Red Wings | 6th | 92 | -17 |
Montréal to win it. The Canadiens were the best Canadian team last season and kept the group together. Nick Suzuki put up 101 points, Cole Caufield scored 51, Lane Hutson added 78 from the blue line and Ivan Demidov signed an eight-year extension. Jakub Dobes went 29-10-4 and got three years. That is a core entering its prime with no obvious hole.
Buffalo won the division on 109 and we have them third, which needs explaining. Their goal difference was plus 47 against Tampa Bay’s plus 59 from the same points total, and division titles won on shootout records rarely repeat.
Toronto is the interesting one. They finished 28th overall with a minus 46 goal difference and responded by signing Sergei Bobrovsky for three years and adding Gavin McKenna. Seventh looks harsh for a team that has done that much, but the defensive numbers were bad enough that one goaltender does not fix them alone.
Metropolitan Division
| Predicted | Team | 2025-26 finish | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 1st, champions | 113 | +56 |
| 2 | Washington Capitals | 4th | 95 | +19 |
| 3 | New Jersey Devils | 7th | 87 | -24 |
| 4 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5th | 92 | 0 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2nd | 98 | +25 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Flyers | 3rd | 98 | +7 |
| 7 | New York Islanders | 6th | 91 | -8 |
| 8 | New York Rangers | 8th | 77 | -12 |
Carolina are the defending champions and the only Metro team with a goal difference above plus 25. They repeat. Behind them the division is unusually flat: five clubs finished between 87 and 98 points, and the gaps are small enough that a good October decides it.
Washington gets the nod for second on the strength of Alex Ovechkin returning for a 22nd season. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia both finished on 98 with goal differences of plus 25 and plus 7, which suggests neither was as good as the table said.
Central Division
| Predicted | Team | 2025-26 finish | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Avalanche | 1st | 121 | +99 |
| 2 | Dallas Stars | 2nd | 112 | +53 |
| 3 | Minnesota Wild | 3rd | 104 | +32 |
| 4 | Utah Mammoth | 4th | 92 | +28 |
| 5 | St. Louis Blues | 5th | 86 | -27 |
| 6 | Nashville Predators | 6th | 86 | -22 |
| 7 | Winnipeg Jets | 7th | 82 | -29 |
| 8 | Chicago Blackhawks | 8th | 72 | -62 |
This is the one division we expect to finish exactly as it did. Colorado’s plus 99 was 40 clear of the next best in the conference, and nothing about their summer changed that.
Winnipeg is the club to watch, for the wrong reasons. The Jets finished 26th overall and then suspended Connor Hellebuyck after he requested a trade. A team that was already conceding more than it scored now has its goaltending unresolved.
Utah in fourth is not a downgrade. Their plus 28 was better than four teams that finished above them, and the Mammoth are the most likely club in this group to jump.
Pacific Division
| Predicted | Team | 2025-26 finish | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton Oilers | 2nd | 93 | +13 |
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights | 1st, finalists | 95 | +15 |
| 3 | Anaheim Ducks | 3rd | 92 | -15 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Kings | 4th | 90 | -22 |
| 5 | Seattle Kraken | 6th | 79 | -37 |
| 6 | San Jose Sharks | 5th | 86 | -41 |
| 7 | Calgary Flames | 7th | 77 | -47 |
| 8 | Vancouver Canucks | 8th | 58 | -100 |
The weakest division in hockey, and it is not close. Vegas won it on 95 points, a total that would have finished 13th in the East. Only two Pacific clubs had a positive goal difference.
Edmonton to win it. Connor McDavid put up 138 points, Evan Bouchard 95 from defence and Leon Draisaitl 97 in only 65 games. Three players at a point a game or better is more than anyone else in the division has, and the Oilers are +900 to win the Cup, the shortest Canadian price.
Vancouver finished last in the league on 58 points with a goal difference of minus 100, the worst figure in the NHL. Quinn Hughes played 26 games. Brock Boeser finished at minus 48. Thatcher Demko opens this season on injured reserve. There is no quick fix there, and our NHL season predictions have them last again.
The bracket our NHL season predictions produce
Eight from each conference: three division qualifiers and two wild cards.
| Conference | Division winners | Wild cards |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern | Montréal, Carolina, Tampa Bay | Buffalo, Washington |
| Western | Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas | Minnesota, Vegas |
Conference finals: Carolina over Montréal in the East, Colorado over Edmonton in the West.
Stanley Cup: Colorado over Carolina. The Avalanche were 8 points and 43 goals better than anyone else last season and lost in a league where the best regular-season team rarely gets the trophy. At +750 they are the pick. Full outright prices are on our NHL Stanley Cup odds page.
Awards
| Award | Our pick | The case |
|---|---|---|
| Hart Trophy | Connor McDavid | 138 points last season, 41 clear of his own teammate |
| Art Ross | Connor McDavid | Led the league and has the supporting cast to repeat |
| Norris Trophy | Lane Hutson | 78 points and plus 36 from the Montréal blue line |
| Calder Trophy | Gavin McKenna | First overall, three-year deal, and playing in Toronto |
| Rocket Richard | Cole Caufield | 51 goals at a shooting percentage just under 20 |
| Vezina Trophy | Jakub Dobes | 29-10-4 at 2.78 behind a defence that kept improving |
Evan Bouchard has a real Norris case at 95 points, more than Hutson. We went with Hutson anyway. He did it at plus 36 on a better defensive team, and voters have tended to reward that. Prices for each are on our NHL awards odds page.
Three NHL season predictions we might regret
Toronto seventh in the Atlantic. They have added the best available goaltender and the first overall pick. If Bobrovsky plays to his history, this is too low.
Florida fifth. They finished 25th overall and are still the shortest price on the board at +640, which means the market thinks last season was an injury year rather than a decline. The market is often right about that.
No Canadian team in the final. The drought reaches 33 years in 2027. Montréal and Edmonton are both good enough to reach a conference final and neither is good enough to be favoured in one.
Colorado. Our NHL season predictions have the Avalanche lifting it: they finished 2025-26 on 121 points with a goal difference of plus 99, both the best in the league, and are priced around +750.
Montreal. The Canadiens finished 6th overall last season on 106 points, the best mark by a Canadian club, and kept their core together while extending Ivan Demidov and Jakub Dobes.
84 games per team, up from 82. That is 1,344 games in total, the first change to the schedule length in three decades. The season runs 29 September 2026 to 10 April 2027.
Gavin McKenna, the first overall pick, who signed a three-year entry-level contract with Toronto in July.
Not on our predictions. The drought reaches 33 years in 2027. Edmonton is the shortest Canadian price at +900 and Montreal next at +2250.
We will revisit these NHL season predictions at the quarter mark and mark our own homework. Some of it will look silly by then. That is the point of writing them down.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Predictions are our opinion and nothing here is a guarantee. Odds quoted are from our Stanley Cup odds board dated 30 July 2026 and change constantly. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.