This page explains how Squawka’s World Cup 2026 AI Predictor works: what it reads, how it turns that into a predicted scoreline, how we keep score, and what it deliberately does not try to do. It is a transparent model, not a black box.
At its core, the Predictor is built on live prediction-market prices — the probabilities the market assigns to each result, updated continuously through the tournament. We pair those prices with bet365’s odds so you can see, match by match, where the data and the sportsbook agree, and where they don’t.
What the model reads
The starting point is the live prediction-market price for each fixture: the implied probability of a home win, draw or away win, drawn from where money is actually being staked. Markets move quickly when team news, injuries or red cards land, and the Predictor moves with them.
Those prices are read alongside the context you would expect — recent form, goals scored and conceded, squad strength and availability, and home advantage, which counts for more than usual at a tournament co-hosted by Canada, the United States and Mexico. The market price does the heavy lifting; the surrounding data shapes the most likely scoreline.
How a predicted scoreline is chosen
From the favoured outcome and its probability, the model settles on the single most likely scoreline rather than a hedged range. A heavy favourite against an outsider points to a clear-cut win; a tight market points to a low-scoring game or a draw. The result is one predicted score per match, shown next to the win probability behind it.
How we keep score
Every pick is settled against the final result and logged as a hit or a miss, with a running hit rate so you can judge the model on its record rather than its promises. Completed matches stay visible in the AI Predictor so the track record is always there to see.
What it does not do
The Predictor is a guide, not a guarantee. Soccer is the most unpredictable of the major sports, and a single deflection or red card can undo the cleanest projection. It is not betting advice, and it cannot account for everything — late team news after prices settle, the weather, or the chaos of a knockout shoot-out. Treat it as a smart starting point for your own view.
How often it updates
Because it is driven by live prediction-market prices, the Predictor refreshes throughout the World Cup as those prices move — right up to kick-off. Check back before each round for the latest picks, and follow the goals on our World Cup 2026 stats page.
It reads live prediction-market prices for every World Cup 2026 match — the probabilities the market assigns to each result — and turns the favoured outcome into a single predicted scoreline, shown next to bet365’s odds.
From live prediction-market prices, refreshed through the tournament, combined with form, squad data and home advantage. The market price leads; the data shapes the scoreline.
Every pick is settled against the final result and logged as a hit or a miss, with a running hit rate on the predictor page so you can judge it on its record.
No. It is a guide, not betting advice. Use it as a starting point for your own view, and always gamble responsibly.
The AI Predictor is for guidance only and is not betting advice. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB & QC). Please play responsibly.