Netherlands and Sweden meet at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday, June 20 at 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 11:00 AM MT / 10:00 AM PT, with a matchday two fixture in Group E that now looks very different to the one most expected before the tournament kicked off.
Sweden tore Tunisia apart 5-1 at Estadio BBVA on matchday one and head into this clash on top of Group E with a +4 goal-difference cushion. The Dutch, by contrast, drew 2-2 with Japan at AT&T Stadium and currently share second on a point each. Three points here puts the Oranje back in the driver’s seat for the group; anything less hands Sweden the keys.
A draw would still leave Sweden ahead on goal difference heading into the final round, and a Swedish win would all but settle qualification on its own. Ronald Koeman knows the side that arrived in the States as group favourites have to be sharper than they were in Arlington.
bet365 still has Netherlands favoured at -150 to win the 90, with the draw at +290 and Sweden out at +400. The line reflects the squad-depth gap that still favours the Dutch, but matchday one tightened the conversation more than the moneyline suggests.
Netherlands vs Sweden: Best Bets & Predictions
We lean Dutch, but Sweden’s matchday-one form is real and the goal markets look the cleaner route in.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result: Netherlands | -150 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | The Dutch still hold the squad-depth edge in this group and can’t afford another slip without giving Sweden the group on a plate. We expect a sharper Dutch performance than the one we saw against Japan. |
| Both Teams To Score: Yes | -111 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Sweden scored five against Tunisia and Netherlands conceded twice to Japan. Both sides carry the threat and both have shown defensive cracks under tournament pressure. |
| Cody Gakpo Anytime Goalscorer | +160 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Gakpo is the Dutch attacker bet365 prices the shortest alongside Brobbey and Depay. He scored at the last World Cup as a starter and remains Liverpool’s most reliable contributor in front of goal. |
| Alexander Isak Anytime Goalscorer | +210 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Isak was central to the rout of Tunisia and has the pace to test a Netherlands back line that looked vulnerable to direct running against Japan. Sweden’s most likely route to a goal. |
| Total Goals: Over 2.5 | -111 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Seven combined goals between these two on matchday one. Both teams need a result here — neither will sit deep and play for a 1-0. |
Our approach: Netherlands to win plus Both Teams To Score Yes for the correlated route in, with Gakpo and Isak as the player-prop legs we like best.
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Group E — 2026 FIFA World Cup
Sweden top Group E after a single matchday on the back of their 5-1 win over Tunisia. Netherlands and Japan share second after their 2-2 draw at AT&T Stadium. For the full bracket and group breakdown, see our World Cup 2026 hub.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Japan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Cody Gakpo (Netherlands): The Liverpool forward gives the Dutch their cleanest finisher and remains a starter under Ronald Koeman. bet365 prices him among the shortest anytime scorers in the fixture, alongside Brian Brobbey and Memphis Depay.
- Memphis Depay (Netherlands): Depay sits alongside Gakpo and Brobbey at the front of bet365’s anytime-scorer market. He carries the experience and the dead-ball threat the Dutch need to break a Sweden block that will sit deeper than Tunisia did.
- Alexander Isak (Sweden): The Newcastle striker was central to Sweden’s matchday-one demolition of Tunisia. He has the pace to test the Dutch back line in transition and is the Swedes’ shortest-priced scorer at bet365.
- Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden): Gyökeres complements Isak in attack and gives Sweden a second elite finisher. His club form for Arsenal has been excellent and bet365 prices him level with Isak in the anytime-scorer market.
World Cup Form So Far
- Netherlands — drew 2-2 with Japan (June 14, AT&T Stadium). Koeman’s side took the lead but couldn’t see it out, conceding twice to a Japan side that pressed cleanly and punished a slow Dutch midfield. The performance flagged the same issue as the warm-ups: enough quality to score against most opponents, not enough control to suffocate them.
- Sweden — beat Tunisia 5-1 (June 14, Estadio BBVA). The matchday-one statement of the group stage. The Swedish front line broke a Tunisia back four that lost shape early, and the margin could have been bigger. The caveat: Tunisia were poor, and Netherlands are a different proposition. But the way Sweden moved the ball forward gave the coaching staff everything they could have asked for.
Netherlands vs Sweden Prediction
This is the genuine pivot of Group E. Sweden play the role of a team with momentum and a points cushion; Netherlands play the role of a team that needs to remind everyone they are still the group’s tournament-grade outfit. Our lean is the Dutch in a higher-scoring game than the moneyline suggests, so back Netherlands to win at -150 with bet365, paired with Both Teams To Score Yes. For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 outright odds page tracks the title picture, and you can read our full bet365 review before you bet. Kick-off is 1:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium in Houston.
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