Uruguay’s World Cup 2026 winner odds are +8000 at bet365, with an implied probability of 1.2%. That price parks La Celeste well outside the contender tier, yet the combination of a settled squad and a kind group draw means Uruguay get plenty of say in how far this run actually goes.
Few nations carry as much World Cup pedigree per dollar of market respect as Uruguay. The honours board is long, but the last two cycles have not delivered the kind of deep run that would force the sportsbook to shorten them toward the genuine favourites.
The full Group H draw and the knockout route that follows are laid out on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, and you can cross-check the official bracket on FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Uruguay odds to win the World Cup
The era of Uruguay actually lifting the trophy belongs to the black-and-white footage now, but a more modern habit has taken its place: reaching the knockout rounds is treated as the floor, not the ceiling, whenever they turn up at a finals.
That floor gave way in 2022. Defeats to Portugal and South Korea left them eliminated in the group, an early exit that still colours how cautiously the market frames them this time around.
At roughly 80/1, Uruguay are nobody’s idea of a favourite. They belong to the second tier of the outright market instead, grouped with the likes of Mexico, the USA and Croatia, nations the sportsbook rates as live without ever fancying for the title.
Translate that 80/1 line and you land on a 1.2% implied probability of Uruguay being crowned champions in 2026.
Uruguay odds to win Group H
Spain are the clear market choice to top Group H, which leaves Uruguay rated as the second pick to win the section. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde round out the four.
Uruguay stage of elimination odds
Even ranked behind Spain in the group, Uruguay are odds-on to come through it and reach the round of 32. The headline market and the qualification market tell slightly different stories, and it is the second one that flatters them.
A top-two finish books their place outright, but the expanded format does the rest of the heavy lifting: eight of the 12 third-placed teams also advance, so even a stumble against Spain leaves Uruguay with a comfortable cushion to qualify.
The sportsbook prices Uruguay at 1/6 to clear Group H, against 4/1 that they bow out at the first hurdle. The gap between those two numbers is the clearest read on how safe their progression looks.
| Stage of Elimination | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| To qualify from Group H | -600 |
| To not qualify from Group H | +400 |
Uruguay World Cup top goalscorer odds
The Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani years are behind them, but Uruguay are far from short of attacking options, and three of them carry a quote in the tournament top-scorer market.
Darwin Nunez is the shortest of the trio at 66/1, with six goals in 12 outings for Al-Hilal giving the price some recent weight, and his move to Saudi Arabia adds a subplot to the group meeting. Brian Rodriguez follows at 150/1 despite a stop-start spell in Liga MX, while Facundo Pellistri completes the set at 200/1.
You can find full World Cup top goalscorer odds here
| Player | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| +6600 | +6600 |
| +15000 | +15000 |
| +20000 | +20000 |
Uruguay at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Uruguay are in Group H alongside Spain, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Uruguay play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Marcelo Bielsa took charge in 2023 and brings the high-press, vertical identity that defined his Argentina, Chile, Athletic Club and Leeds sides.
Uruguay’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +2500 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 4%. Uruguay sit in the third tier of contenders, with Bielsa lifting the price on tactical reputation alone. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Uruguay’s last semifinal was Brazil 2010, with Diego Forlán winning the Golden Ball. Bielsa’s appointment was designed to rebuild that ceiling. Reaching the quarterfinals is a realistic target; a semifinal would be a major step toward fulfilling the two-time winner’s modern potential.
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