Mexico host England in the round of 16 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Sunday, July 5, kicking off at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM MT / 5:00 PM PT, with a place in the quarter-finals on the line and extra time and penalties waiting if the sides can't be separated.
Two teams have reached the last 16 by very different routes. Mexico have won all four of their matches without conceding once, feeding off the altitude and the noise at the Azteca. England have scored more freely but looked shakier at the back, and they arrive as the side the sportsbooks trust to go deepest at World Cup 2026.
bet365 make England the favourites at +150, with Mexico out to +200 and the draw priced at +210. England's squad is stacked with Premier League quality, but the venue and Mexico's clean-sheet run give the hosts plenty to hang their hopes on. You can see how the pair sit in the wider market on our World Cup 2026 outright betting odds page.
Mexico vs England: Best Bets & Predictions
A disciplined Mexico against England's heavier firepower reads like a tight, low-scoring knockout — the sort of night where the visitors' edge in quality is the most likely thing to decide it.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| England to Win | +150 @ bet365 (40.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Our model has England 62% to go through, and Harry Kane leads the more dangerous attack. The market sees them as the side likelier to reach the last eight, and we agree. |
| Harry Kane to score anytime | +150 @ bet365 (40.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Five goals from an xG of 3.27, plus nine shots on target — the sharpest striker left in the draw and the shortest price of any scorer on the night. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -188 @ bet365 (65.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Mexico have kept four clean sheets in a row, and knockout soccer only tightens the margins further. The numbers point to a cagey, low-scoring night. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -143 @ bet365 (58.8%) | ⭐⭐ | Four shutouts tell you all you need about Mexico's back line. One end staying quiet looks more likely than an open, end-to-end game. |
| Correct Score: Mexico 0-1 England | +600 @ bet365 (14.3%) | ⭐⭐ | The natural shape of a narrow England win over a well-drilled Mexico, and one of the shorter scorelines on the board. |
How we're playing it: England to win anchors the slate, Kane anytime adds a bigger price, and the Under plus a 1-0 scoreline sit in behind as supporting picks.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 16
Mexico topped their group with a perfect record and a shutout in every game, seeing off South Africa, Korea Republic and the Czech Republic before edging Ecuador 2-0 in the round of 32. It hasn't been eye-catching, but at the Azteca it has been ruthless and hard to break down.
England had the tougher group, thumping Croatia 4-2, drawing with Ghana and beating Panama, then getting past Congo DR 2-1 in the last 32. On the numbers, England are the side more likely to reach the quarter-finals — though by a finer margin than the headline prices suggest.
Mexico vs England Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
Mexico
4-3-3
England
4-2-3-1Potential Match-Winners
- Harry Kane (England): Five goals from an xG of 3.27 and nine shots on target, firmly in the Golden Boot conversation and the obvious focal point of England's attack.
- Jude Bellingham (England): Two goals from an xG of 1.49 and six shots on target, breaking from midfield to give England a second scoring threat behind Kane.
- Julian Quinones (Mexico): The hosts' leading scorer on three goals from an xG of 1.44 and five shots on target — the likeliest source of a Mexico goal.
- Roberto Alvarado (Mexico): Three assists already, Mexico's main creator and the man asked to unpick a well-drilled England back line.
Recent Form
Mexico: W W W W
- Jun 30, 2026: Mexico 2-0 Ecuador (W)
- Jun 24, 2026: Czech Republic 0-3 Mexico (W)
- Jun 18, 2026: Mexico 1-0 Korea Republic (W)
- Jun 11, 2026: Mexico 2-0 South Africa (W)
Four wins, four clean sheets: no team left in the draw has defended better, and the Azteca crowd has helped tilt every close game Mexico's way.
England: W W D W
- Jul 1, 2026: England 2-1 Congo DR (W)
- Jun 27, 2026: Panama 0-2 England (W)
- Jun 23, 2026: England 0-0 Ghana (D)
- Jun 17, 2026: England 4-2 Croatia (W)
England have found goals throughout, but the narrow win over Congo DR and the goalless draw with Ghana hint at a defence that can be got at — Mexico's clearest way back into the tie.
Mexico
Mexico vs England Prediction
Mexico will make this awkward, the way they have all tournament, and the Azteca is a rough place to be chasing a game. But England have the better players and the more reliable route to goal, and the model's 62% feels about right. We're going England to win at +150 with bet365, with Harry Kane anytime and a 1-0 scoreline behind it, in a tie that could easily need extra time. The bet365 review has the current terms. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
Mexico vs England kicks off at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM MT / 5:00 PM PT on Sunday, July 5, 2026 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, in the World Cup round of 16.
It is a knockout tie, so if the score is level after 90 minutes the game goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and to a penalty shootout if it is still level.
bet365 price England at +150 to win, the draw at +210 and Mexico at +200. Harry Kane is the shortest-priced anytime scorer at +150. Odds correct at the time of writing.
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