Egypt and Iran meet in the Group G finale on Friday, June 26 at Lumen Field in Seattle — 11 PM ET / 10 PM CT / 9 PM MT / 8 PM PT — with qualification permutations that make this one of the more compelling group-stage finales on the card.
Egypt arrive at the top of World Cup 2026 Group G on four points. Hossam Hassan’s side were rescued by a Mohamed Salah penalty in stoppage time against Belgium on matchday one, then they dismantled New Zealand 3-1 in Vancouver — Salah, Omar Marmoush and Mostafa Mohamed all on the scoresheet — to take full command of the group. Any result other than a loss sends them through; a draw guarantees first place unless Belgium beat the All Whites in the parallel kick-off and take the group on goal difference, which the numbers make unlikely.
Iran come in second, level with Belgium on two points but holding that position on goals scored after back-to-back draws — 2-2 with New Zealand in Inglewood and a disciplined 0-0 with Belgium at SoFi Stadium. What Amir Ghalenoei’s side cannot paper over is the loss of captain Ehsan Hajisafi to suspension: two yellow cards at this tournament, and now he watches the decider from the stands. Milad Mohammadi is expected to cover at left-back. The market has noticed — bet365 price Egypt at +140 to win, the draw at +180, and Iran at +260.
Egypt vs Iran: Best Bets & Picks
Egypt are the better side across almost every metric that matters in a group-stage finale with something to win. Iran are hard to break down but they cannot sit for a draw when they need at least a point themselves — which should open proceedings up.
| Our Pick | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt to Win | +140 @ bet365 (41.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Egypt have outscored Iran 4-2 across the group stage and carry the superior xG, forward depth and tactical incentive — finishing top keeps them on the kinder side of the bracket. |
| Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer | +187 @ bet365 (34.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | One goal, two assists and three shots on target in 161 minutes. He leads Egypt for xG (0.7), takes the penalties, and Iran will be tracking Marmoush and Mostafa Mohamed too — that creates space for Liverpool’s captain to operate. |
| Both Teams to Score — Yes | +105 @ bet365 (48.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Egypt have conceded in both group games; Iran scored twice against New Zealand and Ramin Rezaeian has contributed a goal and an assist from right-back. Neither defence has been watertight. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐ | More of a value lean than a banker — Egypt’s win over New Zealand cleared this line with room to spare, and Iran will need to push forward if they concede early. |
| Correct Score: Egypt 2-1 | +1000 @ bet365 (9.1%) | ⭐⭐ | Ties the win pick with the BTTS lean — Hassan’s side tend to manage a single-goal lead rather than chase a second, and Iran almost always find a way onto the scoresheet against tiring legs. |
The approach: anchor the ticket with Salah Anytime Goalscorer at +187, add Egypt to Win, and combine them into a parlay for roughly +600. The 2-1 correct score is a small-stake speculative addition that squares neatly with the other two picks.
Odds correct at time of writing. Please bet responsibly. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC).
World Cup Form & Standings
Egypt sit top of Group G on four points. Iran and Belgium share second place on two points apiece, separated by goals scored — Iran edge that battle, hence their current position. A draw on Friday is enough to send Egypt through as group winners; Iran need at minimum a point and must hope Belgium do not beat New Zealand in the other simultaneous kick-off.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| Iran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New Zealand | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Mohamed Salah (Egypt): The Liverpool forward has been Egypt’s creative heartbeat throughout the group stage — one goal, two assists, three shots on target across 161 minutes, the team’s highest xG at 0.7, and a 0.49 xA to go with it. He takes the penalties. He is the obvious load-bearing pick in any Egypt-centred bet.
- Omar Marmoush (Egypt): The Manchester City forward has been Egypt’s most direct ball-carrier from the right channel. He ran New Zealand’s defensive line ragged in Vancouver and is the second-shortest goalscorer price on Egypt’s roster at +260. Iran will know he is there.
- Mostafa Mohamed (Egypt): The Nantes striker already has a goal and an assist across 152 tournament minutes. His xG (0.83) edges Salah’s, and his body-type creates different problems for a central defensive unit that has spent two matches dealing with technical players. A well-priced alternative to the Salah ticket.
- Mehdi Taremi (Iran): Yet to score at this World Cup but still the focal point of Iran’s attack and priced at +333 as their principal goal threat. The Inter Milan forward is the player Egypt’s centre-backs will have their instructions set around.
- Ramin Rezaeian (Iran): Arguably Iran’s most productive outfield player in the group stage — one goal, one assist, and 180 minutes banked from right-back. Iran’s set-piece deliveries run through him, and he has the licence to arrive late into the box.
Recent Form
Egypt — D W (Group G)
- Jun 22, 2026: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt (W)
- Jun 15, 2026: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (D)
The Pharaohs have improved markedly between matchdays. The Belgium result looked scrambled at 1-1 until Salah’s penalty made it flattering to neither side; the New Zealand win in Vancouver was something more purposeful — all three forwards contributed to the scoresheet and Egypt showed they can dictate as well as absorb. That growth across the group is why the market has them as clear favourites here.
Iran — D D (Group G)
- Jun 21, 2026: Belgium 0-0 Iran (D)
- Jun 16, 2026: Iran 2-2 New Zealand (D)
Two draws, two points, and an unbroken defensive record across the ninety minutes of each game — neither opponent managed to win when they needed to. The 0-0 with Belgium at SoFi Stadium showed Team Melli at their most organised: a low defensive block, Beiranvand commanding his area, and a willingness to let the game drift into a stalemate. The Hajisafi suspension complicates that structure. It is not a catastrophic loss, but Hajisafi’s reading of the game and his ability to control midfield tempo is the kind of resource Iran cannot readily replace from the bench.
Egypt vs Iran Prediction
The underlying numbers are consistent: Egypt have more goals, better xG, the stronger attacking unit and a tactical prize — finishing first — that Iran simply cannot replicate as a motivator. Hajisafi’s absence chips at the structure that kept Belgium and New Zealand at bay. Egypt will need to be patient — Iran do not open easily — but the quality in the forward line is sufficient to find a way through.
The primary pick is Salah Anytime Goalscorer at +187, combined with Egypt to Win into a parlay. If you want a single, Egypt at +140 is a clean, grounded bet. The BTTS lean at +105 makes sense as a complement to both Egypt’s conceding record and Iran’s knack of finding a goal. For the Group G companion match, see our New Zealand vs Belgium preview.
Odds correct at time of writing. Please bet responsibly. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | GameSense: 1-888-795-6111 (BC) | 1-866-332-2322 (AB)