New Zealand’s World Cup 2026 winner odds are -188 at bet365, with an implied probability of 65.22%. The headline price flatters a side the market still treats as long shots, yet the draw and the personnel hand the All Whites a clear say in how far this run actually goes.
Few nations in the outsider tier carry as much tournament pedigree as New Zealand, but the past few cycles have stopped short of the kind of result that would force the sportsbooks to shorten them meaningfully.
The Group G fixtures and the full knockout route are laid out on our 2026 World Cup schedule page, with the complete bracket available at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
New Zealand odds to win the World Cup
Lifting the trophy is, realistically, off the table for this group, and the price tells you as much. The All Whites drift out to 1500/1 to go all the way, longer even than Romania and Northern Ireland, who sit nearer 1000/1 despite still having qualifying play-offs to navigate. That gap is the clearest read on where the market files New Zealand: behind sides that have not yet booked their place.
Part of the reason is the level the squad operates at week to week. Only a thin scattering play in the EFL, among them Port Vale forward Ben Waine and Millwall goalkeeper Max Crocombe, while the defence carries plenty of mileage. Michael Boxall is 37, and 35-year-old Tommy Smith is now turning out for National League side Braintree Town.
There is a longer game at work too. A second New Zealand club, Auckland FC, has joined Australia’s A-League, and that should lift the domestic ceiling over the next few years. Auckland names such as Logan Rogerson, Nando Pijnaker and Francis de Vries will fancy their chances of a squad place, lining up next to the familiar Wellington Phoenix contingent.
For now, though, everything still funnels through Chris Wood. The Nottingham Forest striker is already New Zealand’s record scorer on 45 international goals, and fitness permitting he should overtake the appearance record before a ball is kicked. A nation will lean on the 34-year-old, even after a stop-start 2025/26 with his Premier League club.
Qualifying was kinder this time. The expanded format handed the OFC a direct berth, sparing New Zealand the inter-confederation play-off against an Americas side that had so often ended their previous campaigns. With Australia having opted to compete through the Asian confederation, the Kiwis came through their own region without alarm.
The catch is that none of those fixtures stretched them. The step up in class this summer is steep, and New Zealand will need to find a level they simply have not had to reach in qualifying.
New Zealand odds to win Group G
New Zealand are the longest shots in Group G. Belgium are the clear favourites, Egypt are the next most likely to advance, and Iran occupy the space between the All Whites and that leading pair.
New Zealand group stage qualification odds
Leading sportsbook bet365 prices up every nation on whether it reaches the knockout rounds. Because three sides go through from most groups at this tournament, New Zealand are given a genuine look at the last 32 for the first time, available at 11/8 to qualify. The opposite call, an early exit at the group stage as most expect, comes in at 8/15.
| Market | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| To be knocked out in the group stage | -188 |
| To qualify from the group | +138 |
New Zealand World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds
Only one All White registers in the Golden Boot market, and that is no surprise. Chris Wood sits around 200/1, a price that has as much to do with how few games the sportsbooks expect New Zealand to play as it does with the striker himself. Without a long run, there are simply not enough minutes on offer to trouble the leading scorers.
Wood has managed just eight Premier League outings this season because of injury, but his record when available speaks for itself. He struck 20 times in 36 Nottingham Forest appearances last term, and he remains New Zealand’s all-time leading scorer with 45 goals in 88 caps. His international form lately has been excellent too, with 11 goals in his last 14 outings.
You can find full World Cup Top Goalscorer odds here
| Player | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| +20000 | +20000 |
New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
New Zealand are in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and Iran. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
New Zealand play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Darren Bazeley is English and took charge in 2024, bringing experience from the Australian youth system.
New Zealand’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +100000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.1%. New Zealand sit at the bottom of the outright market, aligned with OFC sides without modern knockout history. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
New Zealand went unbeaten in three matches at South Africa 2010 (three draws) but did not advance. Their other previous appearance was Spain 1982. With the expanded 48-team format, breaking the group-stage ceiling is the realistic target — Group G with Belgium, Egypt and Iran is demanding.
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