Correct Score is the longer-odds soccer market — you have to call the exact final scoreline in regulation time, which is why prices typically sit at +500 or longer. Done well, it gives you the biggest payout per stake of any soccer market; done badly, it is the fastest way to burn through a bankroll. Our Correct Score predictions for the matchday-one slate below have all cleared three-star confidence — the bet365 implied probability sits materially below our read of the true probability for each scoreline. For the full picture, compare bet365 with the other best betting sites in Canada, including the newest betting sites.
Across the matchday-one slate we lean toward 1-0 and 2-1 favourite scorelines — tournament openers compress the scoring rate, and the heavier the favourite the more often that opener finishes with one clean-sheet result. The picks below lead with Canada’s host-nation opener and then the marquee fixtures of MD1.
This week’s Correct Score predictions
| Match | Pick | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | Correct Score: 1-0 Canada | +550 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Opening games tend to be cagey, and a disciplined Bosnia block should keep the margin narrow. |
| USA vs Paraguay | Correct Score: 1-0 United States | +650 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Opening games are cagey, and a disciplined Paraguay back line built around Gustavo Gómez keeps the margin slim. |
| Mexico vs South Africa | Correct Score: 1-0 Mexico | +500 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Opening games are cagey, and a disciplined South Africa back line should keep the margin slim. |
| England vs Croatia | Correct Score: 1-0 England | +600 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Openers tend to be cagey, and Croatia rarely concede in bunches, so a single goal could settle it. |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Correct Score: 2-1 Brazil | +800 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Morocco rarely roll over, so a tight Brazil win with a goal conceded fits the way they grind out results. |
| France vs Senegal | Correct Score: 2-1 France | +800 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Senegal carry enough quality to find a goal, so a narrow French win fits the shape of the match. |
Correct Score is one of the few markets where a confidence rating below three stars is worth a small stake on its own merits — the prices are long enough that even a 15% true probability beats the bet365 line. We still publish only three-star calls on this page; the rest of the matchday scorelines sit in the full previews if you want to explore further.
What are Correct Score predictions?
Correct Score is the market on the exact final scoreline of a fixture at the end of regulation time. Stakes are settled on whether the scoreline you backed is the result on the pitch when the referee blows the final whistle — no extra time, no penalty shootouts. Most operators price every plausible scoreline up to 5-5 or so, plus an Any Unquoted Score option that covers the long tail of high-scoring outcomes.
The market suits bettors who already have a view on the match shape — not just who wins, but how the goals are likely to come. If you fancy a heavy favourite to grind out a 1-0 against a deep block, Correct Score gives you the biggest payout per stake on that exact thesis. The trade-off is variance — one deflection or one late equaliser turns a winning 1-0 ticket into a losing 1-1 ticket.
How to spot Correct Score predictions value
Three signals shape our Correct Score calls. The first is goals-for and goals-against rate across the last six competitive matches — sides scoring above 1.5 per game and conceding below 1.0 per game tend to finish tournament-opener fixtures with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline more often than the bet365 line suggests.
The second is shots-per-game profile. A team that creates a lot of low-quality shots from outside the box tends to convert at the long-run rate of those shots, which puts a soft ceiling on their attacking output. The third is opposition defensive set-up — a deep block compresses scorelines, a high line opens them up.
Key stats behind our Correct Score predictions
On matchday-one fixtures across the last three World Cups, the 1-0 favourite-scoreline outcome has hit at roughly 13% of the time — meaningfully higher than the bet365 implied probability on that line, which usually sits around 9% to 10%. The 2-1 favourite outcome has hit at roughly 10%, again above the 7% to 8% the line implies. Those two scorelines drive most of our matchday-one Correct Score value, and they are the calls we lean on when the rest of the fixture profile supports them.
Browse other predictions
Looking at other markets? See our Both Teams to Score picks, Anytime Goalscorer picks and Over 2.5 Goals picks for the same matchday. Or browse all of this week’s soccer predictions.
Correct Score FAQs
Does Correct Score include extra time?
No — Correct Score settles on the scoreline at the end of regulation time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count. If a knockout fixture goes to extra time, your Correct Score ticket has settled on the ninetieth-minute scoreline regardless of what happens after.
What is the “Any Unquoted Score” option?
Any Unquoted Score covers any scoreline not individually priced on the bet365 grid — usually anything 5-5 or above, plus less common high-scoring outcomes like 6-1. It is a useful catch-all if you fancy a particular high-scoring matchup but cannot call the exact scoreline.
Why do most matchday-one Correct Score picks lean to 1-0 or 2-1?
Tournament openers compress the goals market — teams protect against damaging first results, weaker sides sit deep, and favourites tend to be patient with the ball. That funnels scorelines toward the 1-0 or 2-1 outcomes, which historically run roughly four points above the bet365 implied probability on MD1 across recent World Cups.
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