{"id":95257,"date":"2026-11-13T18:13:16","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T23:13:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/nhl-norris-trophy-odds\/"},"modified":"2026-11-13T18:13:16","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T23:13:16","slug":"nhl-norris-trophy-odds","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/nhl-norris-trophy-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Norris Trophy Odds 2026-27"},"content":{"rendered":"

These are the 2026-27 Norris Trophy odds. They have Evan Bouchard<\/strong> in front at 36.4%<\/strong>. The NHL<\/a> Norris market tells one story. Our WAR value model often tells another.<\/p>

WAR stands for wins above replacement. It measures how much a defenceman adds over a freely available fill-in. We put it next to each player’s market price. Then we flag the defencemans the model rates higher than the market. That gap is the edge these Norris Trophy odds can miss.<\/p>\n\n

\"SquawkaNHL Norris Race<\/span><\/div>

Norris Trophy Odds: Market vs the Model<\/h2>

The live Norris Trophy market — each candidate’s implied probability — beside Squawka Signal’s own WAR<\/strong> value model — and a VALUE<\/strong> flag on the defencemans our model rates higher than their market price. Our model’s standout value call: Brandt Clarke<\/strong>, rated #5 by WAR but only the market’s #8 pick. Tap any name for the read. Updated November 13, 2026.<\/p>

#<\/span>Defenceman<\/span>Odds<\/span>WAR<\/span>Model<\/span><\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"EvanEvan Bouchard<\/b>EDM · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>36.4%<\/span>0.74<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

However, the market prices Evan Bouchard at #1<\/strong> (36.4% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #4<\/strong> by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.<\/p>Back Evan Bouchard for the Norris36.4%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

2<\/span>\"QuinnQuinn Hughes<\/b>MIN · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>25.0%<\/span>1.10<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Quinn Hughes. The market price sits at 25.0%, and our WAR model also has him around #1 in this field.<\/p>Back Quinn Hughes for the Norris25.0%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

3<\/span>\"MikhailMikhail Sergachev<\/b>UTA · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>9.5%<\/span>-0.11<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

However, the market prices Mikhail Sergachev at #3<\/strong> (9.5% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #9<\/strong> by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.<\/p>Back Mikhail Sergachev for the Norris9.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

The Norris Trophy race, priced by the market and checked by the model.<\/b>Trade the Norris on Polymarket<\/a><\/div>
4<\/span>\"LaneLane Hutson<\/b>MTL · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>7.6%<\/span>0.78<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Lane Hutson. The market price sits at 7.6%, and our WAR model also has him around #3 in this field.<\/p>Back Lane Hutson for the Norris7.6%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

5<\/span>\"CaleCale Makar<\/b>COL · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>7.5%<\/span>0.23<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Cale Makar. The market price sits at 7.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #6 in this field.<\/p>Back Cale Makar for the Norris7.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

6<\/span>\"MacKenzieMacKenzie Weegar<\/b>UTA · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>4.6%<\/span>-0.14<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

However, the market prices MacKenzie Weegar at #6<\/strong> (4.6% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #11<\/strong> by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.<\/p>Back MacKenzie Weegar for the Norris4.6%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

7<\/span>\"BowenBowen Byram<\/b>CHI · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>4.5%<\/span>-0.11<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

However, the market prices Bowen Byram at #7<\/strong> (4.5% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #10<\/strong> by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.<\/p>Back Bowen Byram for the Norris4.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

8<\/span>\"BrandtBrandt Clarke<\/b>LAK · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>4.5%<\/span>0.27<\/span>VALUE<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Our WAR model rates Brandt Clarke the #5<\/strong> most valuable defenceman in this field, ahead of the market’s #8<\/strong> price (4.5% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.<\/p>Back Brandt Clarke for the Norris4.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

9<\/span>\"KrisKris Letang<\/b>PIT · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>4.5%<\/span>-0.06<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Kris Letang. The market price sits at 4.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #8 in this field.<\/p>Back Kris Letang for the Norris4.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

10<\/span>\"MoritzMoritz Seider<\/b>DET · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>4.2%<\/span>1.07<\/span>VALUE<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Our WAR model rates Moritz Seider the #2<\/strong> most valuable defenceman in this field, ahead of the market’s #10<\/strong> price (4.2% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.<\/p>Back Moritz Seider for the Norris4.2%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

11<\/span>\"RykerRyker Evans<\/b>SEA · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>4.2%<\/span>0.18<\/span>VALUE<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Our WAR model rates Ryker Evans the #7<\/strong> most valuable defenceman in this field, ahead of the market’s #11<\/strong> price (4.2% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.<\/p>Back Ryker Evans for the Norris4.2%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

12<\/span>\"NealNeal Pionk<\/b>WPG · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>3.5%<\/span>-0.26<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Neal Pionk. The market price sits at 3.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #12 in this field.<\/p>Back Neal Pionk for the Norris3.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details><\/div>

Trade the Norris on Polymarket<\/a>See the full WAR board<\/a><\/div>

“Odds” is each candidate’s implied probability on the Polymarket Norris Trophy market. “WAR” is the Squawka Signal value model — wins above replacement, not<\/em> a prediction of the vote; the VALUE<\/strong> flag marks players our model rates higher than the market does. See the full player-value board<\/a> · how Signal works<\/a>. 18+ and in an eligible state. Prediction markets carry risk — trade responsibly.<\/p><\/div><\/div>