{"id":95256,"date":"2026-11-13T18:13:13","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T23:13:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/nhl-mvp-odds\/"},"modified":"2026-11-13T18:13:14","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T23:13:14","slug":"nhl-mvp-odds","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/nhl-mvp-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL MVP Odds 2026-27: Hart Trophy Race"},"content":{"rendered":"

These are the 2026-27 NHL<\/a> MVP odds. They have Connor McDavid<\/strong> in front at 75.5%<\/strong>. The NHL MVP market tells one story. Our WAR value model often tells another.<\/p>

WAR stands for wins above replacement. It measures how much a skater adds over a freely available fill-in. We put it next to each player’s market price. Then we flag the skaters the model rates higher than the market. That gap is the edge these NHL MVP odds can miss.<\/p>\n\n

\"SquawkaNHL MVP Race<\/span><\/div>

Hart Trophy Odds: Market vs the Model<\/h2>

The live Hart Trophy market — each candidate’s implied probability — beside Squawka Signal’s own WAR<\/strong> value model — and a VALUE<\/strong> flag on the skaters our model rates higher than their market price. Our model’s standout value call: Jack Hughes<\/strong>, rated #4 by WAR but only the market’s #6 pick. Tap any name for the read. Updated November 13, 2026.<\/p>

#<\/span>Skater<\/span>Odds<\/span>WAR<\/span>Model<\/span><\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"ConnorConnor McDavid<\/b>EDM · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>75.5%<\/span>1.03<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Connor McDavid. The market price sits at 75.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #1 in this field.<\/p>Back Connor McDavid for the MVP75.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

2<\/span>\"KirillKirill Kaprizov<\/b>MIN · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>7.4%<\/span>0.88<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Kirill Kaprizov. The market price sits at 7.4%, and our WAR model also has him around #2 in this field.<\/p>Back Kirill Kaprizov for the MVP7.4%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

3<\/span>\"NathanNathan MacKinnon<\/b>COL · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>7.0%<\/span>0.54<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

However, the market prices Nathan MacKinnon at #3<\/strong> (7.0% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #6<\/strong> by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.<\/p>Back Nathan MacKinnon for the MVP7.0%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

The Hart Trophy race, priced by the market and checked by the model.<\/b>Trade the MVP on Polymarket<\/a><\/div>
4<\/span>\"MacklinMacklin Celebrini<\/b>SJS · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>3.8%<\/span>0.81<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Macklin Celebrini. The market price sits at 3.8%, and our WAR model also has him around #3 in this field.<\/p>Back Macklin Celebrini for the MVP3.8%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

5<\/span>\"JackJack Eichel<\/b>VGK · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>3.2%<\/span>0.46<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

However, the market prices Jack Eichel at #5<\/strong> (3.2% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #8<\/strong> by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.<\/p>Back Jack Eichel for the MVP3.2%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

6<\/span>\"JackJack Hughes<\/b>NJD · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>2.3%<\/span>0.71<\/span>VALUE<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Our WAR model rates Jack Hughes the #4<\/strong> most valuable forward in this field, ahead of the market’s #6<\/strong> price (2.3% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.<\/p>Back Jack Hughes for the MVP2.3%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

7<\/span>\"NikitaNikita Kucherov<\/b>TBL · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>2.3%<\/span>0.47<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Nikita Kucherov. The market price sits at 2.3%, and our WAR model also has him around #7 in this field.<\/p>Back Nikita Kucherov for the MVP2.3%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

8<\/span>\"LoganLogan Stankoven<\/b>CAR · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>1.8%<\/span>0.57<\/span>VALUE<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Our WAR model rates Logan Stankoven the #5<\/strong> most valuable forward in this field, ahead of the market’s #8<\/strong> price (1.8% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.<\/p>Back Logan Stankoven for the MVP1.8%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

9<\/span>\"LucasLucas Raymond<\/b>DET · F<\/small><\/span><\/span>1.8%<\/span>0.24<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Lucas Raymond. The market price sits at 1.8%, and our WAR model also has him around #10 in this field.<\/p>Back Lucas Raymond for the MVP1.8%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

10<\/span>\"RomanRoman Josi<\/b>NSH · D<\/small><\/span><\/span>1.8%<\/span>0.36<\/span>·<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Overall, model and market broadly line up on Roman Josi. The market price sits at 1.8%, and our WAR model also has him around #9 in this field.<\/p>Back Roman Josi for the MVP1.8%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

11<\/span>—<\/span>Dustin Wolf<\/b>G<\/small><\/span><\/span>1.7%<\/span>—<\/span>—<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Dustin Wolf is a live market candidate, but WAR is a skater metric — our model doesn’t price goaltenders, so there’s no value read here.<\/p>Back Dustin Wolf for the MVP1.7%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

12<\/span>—<\/span>Alexander Ovechkin<\/b>G<\/small><\/span><\/span>1.5%<\/span>—<\/span>—<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Alexander Ovechkin is a live market candidate, but WAR is a skater metric — our model doesn’t price goaltenders, so there’s no value read here.<\/p>Back Alexander Ovechkin for the MVP1.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details><\/div>

Trade the MVP on Polymarket<\/a>See the full WAR board<\/a><\/div>

“Odds” is each candidate’s implied probability on the Polymarket Hart Trophy market. “WAR” is the Squawka Signal value model — wins above replacement, not<\/em> a prediction of the vote; the VALUE<\/strong> flag marks players our model rates higher than the market does. See the full player-value board<\/a> · how Signal works<\/a>. 18+ and in an eligible state. Prediction markets carry risk — trade responsibly.<\/p><\/div><\/div>