{"id":95115,"date":"2026-11-13T11:05:28","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T16:05:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=outright_markets&p=95115"},"modified":"2026-11-13T11:05:46","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T16:05:46","slug":"nhl-stanley-cup-odds","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/nhl-stanley-cup-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27: Signal Model vs Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Squawka Signal model makes the Carolina Hurricanes<\/strong> the 13.5% favorites for the 2026-27 Stanley Cup. Below is the full title race with a twist you won’t find on a sportsbook: our model’s probability for every team sits next to the de-vigged prediction market, so you can see exactly where Signal and the money disagree.<\/p>\n\n

\"SquawkaNHL Stanley Cup<\/span><\/div>

Stanley Cup Odds: Signal vs Market<\/h2>

The Squawka Signal model’s championship probabilities beside the live prediction market, de-vigged to true odds — and the edge on every team. Our biggest disagreement with the market: the Tampa Bay Lightning<\/strong>, where the model sees +5.7 pts<\/strong> of value. Tap any name to back them. Updated November 13, 2026.<\/p>

#<\/span>Team<\/span>Signal<\/span>Market<\/span>Edge<\/span><\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"CarolinaCarolina Hurricanes<\/span><\/span>13.5%<\/span>12.0%<\/span>+1.5<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Carolina Hurricanes: 13.5% model vs 12.0% market. Kalshi fair 11.3%, Polymarket fair 12.1% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Carolina Hurricanes on Kalshi11.3%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

2<\/span>\"ColoradoColorado Avalanche<\/span><\/span>10.1%<\/span>9.2%<\/span>+0.9<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Colorado Avalanche: 10.1% model vs 9.2% market. Kalshi fair 8.9%, Polymarket fair 9.2% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Colorado Avalanche on Kalshi8.9%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

3<\/span>\"TampaTampa Bay Lightning<\/span><\/span>10.1%<\/span>4.4%<\/span>+5.7<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

The model is higher<\/strong> on the Tampa Bay Lightning than the market — Signal 10.1% vs a 4.4% market price, an edge of +5.7 pts<\/strong>. Kalshi fair 4.8%, Polymarket fair 4.4% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Tampa Bay Lightning on Kalshi4.8%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

4<\/span>\"MinnesotaMinnesota Wild<\/span><\/span>8.4%<\/span>7.2%<\/span>+1.2<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Minnesota Wild: 8.4% model vs 7.2% market. Kalshi fair 8.1%, Polymarket fair 7.1% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Minnesota Wild on Kalshi8.1%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

5<\/span>\"EdmontonEdmonton Oilers<\/span><\/span>7.1%<\/span>11.0%<\/span>-3.9<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

The market is higher on the Edmonton Oilers than the model — a 11.0% market price vs Signal’s 7.1% (-3.9 pts). Kalshi fair 8.1%, Polymarket fair 11.1% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Edmonton Oilers on Kalshi8.1%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

6<\/span>\"VegasVegas Golden Knights<\/span><\/span>5.6%<\/span>7.2%<\/span>-1.6<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

The market is higher on the Vegas Golden Knights than the model — a 7.2% market price vs Signal’s 5.6% (-1.6 pts). Kalshi fair 5.6%, Polymarket fair 7.3% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Vegas Golden Knights on Kalshi5.6%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

7<\/span>\"DallasDallas Stars<\/span><\/span>5.1%<\/span>5.3%<\/span>-0.2<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Dallas Stars: 5.1% model vs 5.3% market. Kalshi fair 4.8%, Polymarket fair 5.3% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Dallas Stars on Kalshi4.8%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

8<\/span>\"MontrealMontreal Canadiens<\/span><\/span>5.0%<\/span>4.7%<\/span>+0.3<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Montreal Canadiens: 5.0% model vs 4.7% market. Kalshi fair 4.0%, Polymarket fair 4.7% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Montreal Canadiens on Kalshi4.0%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

9<\/span>\"BostonBoston Bruins<\/span><\/span>4.7%<\/span>2.9%<\/span>+1.8<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

The model is higher<\/strong> on the Boston Bruins than the market — Signal 4.7% vs a 2.9% market price, an edge of +1.8 pts<\/strong>. Kalshi fair 3.2%, Polymarket fair 2.9% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Boston Bruins on Kalshi3.2%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

10<\/span>\"OttawaOttawa Senators<\/span><\/span>3.9%<\/span>3.0%<\/span>+0.9<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Ottawa Senators: 3.9% model vs 3.0% market. Kalshi fair 2.4%, Polymarket fair 3.0% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Ottawa Senators on Kalshi2.4%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

11<\/span>\"NewNew Jersey Devils<\/span><\/span>3.2%<\/span>6.6%<\/span>-3.4<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

The market is higher on the New Jersey Devils than the model — a 6.6% market price vs Signal’s 3.2% (-3.4 pts). Kalshi fair 6.5%, Polymarket fair 6.6% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the New Jersey Devils on Kalshi6.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details>

12<\/span>\"WashingtonWashington Capitals<\/span><\/span>2.8%<\/span>3.4%<\/span>-0.6<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>

Signal and the market agree on the Washington Capitals: 2.8% model vs 3.4% market. Kalshi fair 3.2%, Polymarket fair 3.4% (both de-vigged).<\/p>Back the Washington Capitals on Kalshi3.2%<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/details><\/div>

Trade the Cup on Kalshi<\/a>Trade on Polymarket<\/a><\/div>

“Signal” is the Squawka model’s win probability from a season Monte-Carlo; “Market” is the de-vigged consensus of Kalshi and Polymarket, volume-weighted. Edge = Signal − market. See the full board in our NHL Power Rankings<\/a> and how the model works<\/a>. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/p><\/div><\/div>