{"id":829,"date":"2026-08-21T02:30:30","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T06:30:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=outright_markets&p=829"},"modified":"2026-08-21T02:30:30","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T06:30:30","slug":"premier-league-relegation-odds-2026-27-who-will-go-down","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/premier-league-relegation-odds-2026-27-who-will-go-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Premier League 2026-27 Relegation Odds: Who Will Go Down?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The three promoted clubs — Coventry City, Hull City and Ipswich Town — start the 2026-27 season where the market almost always puts them: at the front of the relegation queue.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Burnley, West Ham and Wolves went down last season; Coventry, Hull and Ipswich come up to replace them. Recent history is unkind to the promoted sides — more often than not at least two of the three go straight back — and that is where the relegation market will open when it does.<\/p>\n

Our Squawka Signal<\/strong> survival model is now live for 2026-27 — a data-led relegation probability for every club, set against the live market. Pre-season it blends recent form with the promoted sides’ Championship level; it sharpens as games are played. Follow the fight on the Premier League hub<\/a> and the live table<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/span>Squawka Signal · Model vs Market<\/div>

Premier League 2026-27 Relegation — Squawka Signal<\/h2>

Our model’s relegation probability for every club against the live Kalshi market. Pre-season it blends five seasons of form with the promoted clubs’ Championship level, and sharpens as results land. Tap any club for its Squawka Rating and survival odds.<\/p>

▲<\/span>Signal sees more danger than the market<\/span>▼<\/span>Signal sees less danger · safer<\/span>▬<\/span>In line<\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"HullHull City<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>61.7%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>74%<\/span><\/span>▼ Much safer<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>28<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>61.7%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>38.3%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>74%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
2<\/span>\"IpswichIpswich Town<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>42.5%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>34<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>42.5%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>57.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>–<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
3<\/span>\"CoventryCoventry City<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>41.5%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>34<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>41.5%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>58.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>–<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
4<\/span>\"LeedsLeeds United<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>16.2%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>46<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>16.2%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>83.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>–<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
5<\/span>\"SunderlandSunderland<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>16.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>22%<\/span><\/span>▼ Safer<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>46<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>16.1%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>83.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>22%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
6<\/span>\"EvertonEverton<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>15.7%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>8%<\/span><\/span>▲ More danger<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>46<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>15.7%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>84.3%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>8%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
7<\/span>\"CrystalCrystal Palace<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>14.6%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>14%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>47<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>14.6%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>85.4%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>14%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
8<\/span>\"FulhamFulham<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>13.7%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>15%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>47<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>13.7%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>86.3%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>15%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
9<\/span>\"NottinghamNottingham Forest<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>12.5%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>10%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>48<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>12.5%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>87.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>10%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
10<\/span>\"TottenhamTottenham Hotspur<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>11.9%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>2%<\/span><\/span>▲ Far more danger<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>48<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>11.9%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>88.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
11<\/span>\"AFCAFC Bournemouth<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>9.8%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>8%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>50<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>9.8%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>90.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>8%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
12<\/span>\"BrentfordBrentford<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>9.2%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>10%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>51<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>9.2%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>90.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>10%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
13<\/span>\"ManchesterManchester United<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>7.4%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▲ More danger<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>53<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>7.4%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>92.6%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
14<\/span>\"AstonAston Villa<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>7.2%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1%<\/span><\/span>▲ More danger<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>53<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>7.2%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>92.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>1%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
15<\/span>\"BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>7.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>3%<\/span><\/span>▲ More danger<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>53<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>7.0%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>93.0%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>3%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
16<\/span>\"NewcastleNewcastle United<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>5.8%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>10%<\/span><\/span>▼ Safer<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>54<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>5.8%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>94.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>10%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
17<\/span>\"ChelseaChelsea<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>5.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1%<\/span><\/span>▲ More danger<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>55<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>5.1%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>94.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>1%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
18<\/span>\"LiverpoolLiverpool<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.8%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>63<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>1.8%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>98.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
19<\/span>\"ArsenalArsenal<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.3%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ In line<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>72<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>0.3%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>99.7%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
20<\/span>\"ManchesterManchester City<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.2%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>7%<\/span><\/span>▼ Safer<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>71<\/b><\/div>
Drop risk<\/span>0.2%<\/b><\/div>
Survival<\/span>99.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>7%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div>
Trade the relegation market on Kalshi<\/a><\/span>Bet the market with bet365<\/a><\/span><\/div>

Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = drop probability across 20,000 season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is how our model’s risk reads against the price: more danger<\/strong> = we make them likelier to go down than the market, safer<\/strong> = less likely. bet365 odds are shown for readers outside the US. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review<\/a>, bet365 review<\/a> and the Signal methodology<\/a>.<\/p>