{"id":825,"date":"2026-08-20T02:30:22","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T06:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=outright_markets&p=825"},"modified":"2026-08-20T02:30:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T06:30:22","slug":"premier-league-title-odds-2026-27-who-will-win-epl","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/premier-league-title-odds-2026-27-who-will-win-epl\/","title":{"rendered":"Premier League 2026-27 Title Odds: Winner Predictions & Favourites"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arsenal defend the title they finally landed in 2025-26, and the market makes them favourites again — but a long way from a shoo-in.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 2026-27 Premier League opens on August 21, and the title market has settled into a familiar shape: Arsenal out in front, Manchester City the standing threat, and Liverpool and Manchester United a tier back with Chelsea.<\/p>\n\n

Our Squawka Signal<\/strong> model is now live for 2026-27 — a data-led title probability for every club, set against the live market. Pre-season it leans on recent form across the last five seasons; it sharpens as games are played. Follow the race on the Premier League hub<\/a> and the live table<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/span>Squawka Signal · Model vs Market<\/div>

Premier League 2026-27 Winner — Squawka Signal<\/h2>

Our model’s title probability for every club against the live Kalshi market. Pre-season it leans on last season’s team-strength ratings, regressed for a fresh campaign, and sharpens as results land. Tap any club for its Squawka Rating and top-four odds.<\/p>

▲<\/span>Market under our model · value<\/span>▼<\/span>Market over our model · overpriced<\/span>▬<\/span>In line<\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"ArsenalArsenal<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>30.7%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>39%<\/span><\/span>▼ Slight lay<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>72<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>30.7%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>71.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>39%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
2<\/span>\"ManchesterManchester City<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>27.2%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>19%<\/span><\/span>▲ Value<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>71<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>27.2%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>67.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>19%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
3<\/span>\"LiverpoolLiverpool<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>10.8%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>13%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>63<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>10.8%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>43.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>13%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
4<\/span>\"ChelseaChelsea<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>4.5%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>9%<\/span><\/span>▼ Slight lay<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>55<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>4.5%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>25.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>9%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
5<\/span>\"NewcastleNewcastle United<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>4.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1%<\/span><\/span>▲ Value<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>54<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>4.1%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>23.4%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>1%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
6<\/span>\"ManchesterManchester United<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>3.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>11%<\/span><\/span>▼ Slight lay<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>53<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>3.1%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>20.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>11%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
7<\/span>\"AstonAston Villa<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>3.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>2%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>53<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>3.0%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>20.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
8<\/span>\"BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>3.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>53<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>3.0%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>19.6%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>1%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
9<\/span>\"BrentfordBrentford<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>2.4%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>51<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>2.4%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>16.6%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
10<\/span>\"AFCAFC Bournemouth<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>2.2%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>50<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>2.2%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>15.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
11<\/span>\"TottenhamTottenham Hotspur<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.7%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>4%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>48<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.7%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>12.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>4%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
12<\/span>\"NottinghamNottingham Forest<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.6%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>48<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.6%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>12.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
13<\/span>\"FulhamFulham<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.4%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>47<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.4%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>11.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
14<\/span>\"CrystalCrystal Palace<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>47<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.1%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>9.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
15<\/span>\"EvertonEverton<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>46<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.0%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>9.0%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
16<\/span>\"LeedsLeeds United<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>46<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.0%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>8.7%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
17<\/span>\"SunderlandSunderland<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>46<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.0%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>9.4%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
18<\/span>\"CoventryCoventry City<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>34<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.1%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>2.0%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>–<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
19<\/span>\"IpswichIpswich Town<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.1%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>34<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.1%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>1.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>–<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details>
20<\/span>\"HullHull City<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.0%<\/span><\/span>Kalshi<\/span>–<\/span><\/span>▬ —<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>0%<\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span><\/span><\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>28<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.0%<\/b><\/div>
Top four<\/span>0.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/span>bet365 market<\/span>0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div>
Trade the title market on Kalshi<\/a><\/span>Bet the market with bet365<\/a><\/span><\/div>

Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = title probability across 20,000 season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is our read on each price: Value<\/strong> = the market sits below our model, Overpriced<\/strong> = above it. bet365 odds are shown for readers outside the US. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review<\/a>, bet365 review<\/a> and the Signal methodology<\/a>.<\/p>