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2.88-3.15c1.23-.74 2.61-1.12 4.14-1.12 1.67 0 3.08.36 4.21 1.08 1.14.73 1.98 1.73 2.54 3.03s.85 2.8.85 4.51v1.7h-11.56c.08.89.32 1.68.71 2.38.39.68.92 1.23 1.59 1.62s1.45.58 2.35.58c1.83 0 3.3-.71 4.42-2.14l2.18 2.09c-.65.94-1.55 1.71-2.68 2.35zm-1.05-9.77h-7.44c.18-1.32.61-2.35 1.26-3.09.65-.73 1.51-1.11 2.59-1.11 1.2 0 2.09.36 2.65 1.09s.88 1.65.94 2.79zm15.37 10.31c-.79.26-1.67.39-2.65.39-1.44 0-2.58-.39-3.41-1.18s-1.24-2.05-1.24-3.76v-9.89h-2.88v-2.97h2.88v-4.26h4.07v4.26h3.11v2.97h-3.11v9.6c0 .73.15 1.23.45 1.5.3.26.76.39 1.38.39.44 0 .89-.06 1.39-.17v3.11zM42.76 24.28V0L0 12.04v28.93l42.76 12.04V24.27zm-4.13-1.16V5.42L7.21 14.27zm-3.08 3.39L4.14 17.66v17.69l31.42-8.85zM7.21 38.75l31.42 8.85V29.89L7.21 38.74v.02z"/><path d="M109.72 38.13V13.32h-4.07v24.81h4.07zm-40.05-8.7v8.7h-4.24V14.62h9.16c1.8 0 3.36.32 4.68.95s2.32 1.53 3 2.67 1.03 2.42 1.03 3.88-.35 2.83-1.03 3.92c-.68 1.11-1.68 1.94-2.98 2.51s-2.88.88-4.71.88zm0-3.36h4.92c1.51 0 2.64-.35 3.36-1.05.73-.7 1.09-1.65 1.09-2.88 0-.76-.15-1.44-.47-2.08s-.8-1.14-1.47-1.51c-.67-.38-1.5-.58-2.5-.58h-4.92v8.09h-.02zm24.16 12.38c1.7 0 3.17-.38 4.41-1.15 1.24-.76 2.2-1.82 2.86-3.17s.98-2.86.98-4.57v-.33c0-1.7-.33-3.23-.98-4.57-.67-1.35-1.62-2.41-2.86-3.18-1.26-.77-2.73-1.15-4.44-1.15s-3.15.38-4.39 1.15-2.2 1.83-2.86 3.18c-.67 1.35-.98 2.86-.98 4.57v.33c0 1.7.33 3.23.98 4.57.67 1.35 1.62 2.41 2.86 3.17 1.26.76 2.73 1.15 4.42 1.15zm-3.15-4.82c.7 1.06 1.74 1.59 3.15 1.59.92 0 1.71-.26 2.33-.76s1.09-1.18 1.39-2.03.45-1.8.45-2.88v-.33c0-1.06-.15-2.01-.45-2.86-.3-.86-.77-1.53-1.39-2.05-.64-.5-1.42-.76-2.36-.76s-1.7.26-2.33.76c-.62.5-1.09 1.18-1.38 2.05-.3.86-.45 1.82-.45 2.86v.33c0 1.65.35 3.01 1.05 4.07zm28.49 10.26c-.83.86-2.03 1.3-3.58 1.3-.53 0-1.18-.09-1.95-.29v-3.09l.76.03c.97 0 1.71-.17 2.23-.52.52-.33.91-.94 1.21-1.79l.56-1.48-6.23-17.41h4.41l3.68 11.73 3.58-11.73h4.35l-7.06 20.13c-.45 1.21-1.09 2.24-1.92 3.11h-.03zm15.3-5.76V25.5c.65-1.26 1.76-1.89 3.33-1.89 1.03 0 1.8.24 2.33.74s.79 1.33.79 2.5v11.27h4.07V26.11c.23-.76.64-1.38 1.2-1.82.58-.45 1.29-.68 2.14-.68 1.03 0 1.82.23 2.33.7.52.47.77 1.3.77 2.5v11.32h4.07v-11.3c0-2.26-.5-3.89-1.48-4.94-1-1.05-2.42-1.56-4.3-1.56-1.2 0-2.24.23-3.17.7-.92.47-1.68 1.12-2.27 1.97-.45-.91-1.09-1.58-1.92-2.01-.83-.44-1.8-.65-2.92-.65s-2.06.18-2.92.56-1.59.91-2.18 1.61l-.14-1.85h-3.83v17.48h4.07l.03.02zm33.19-.21c-.77.35-1.65.53-2.64.53-1.15 0-2.2-.23-3.11-.68-.92-.45-1.64-1.08-2.15-1.88s-.77-1.7-.77-2.68c0-1.86.7-3.29 2.11-4.29 1.41-.98 3.39-1.48 5.97-1.48h2.45V26.3c0-.92-.26-1.65-.77-2.17-.52-.52-1.27-.79-2.27-.79-.61 0-1.14.11-1.59.3s-.82.48-1.06.83c-.26.35-.38.76-.38 1.2h-4.07c0-.94.3-1.82.91-2.64s1.47-1.48 2.59-1.98 2.39-.76 3.85-.76c1.35 0 2.54.23 3.59.68s1.85 1.14 2.44 2.03.88 2.01.88 3.32v7.71c0 1.59.23 2.86.67 3.8v.27h-4.17c-.18-.38-.33-.92-.45-1.64-.56.59-1.23 1.06-2 1.42l-.02.02zm-1.84-2.68c-.86 0-1.53-.23-2.01-.67-.48-.45-.73-1.03-.73-1.74 0-.91.36-1.62 1.09-2.14.73-.5 1.8-.76 3.23-.76h2.14v3.26c-.3.56-.79 1.05-1.45 1.44s-1.42.59-2.27.59l.02.02zm15.96-9.02v11.91h-4.07V20.65h3.88l.12 1.97c.45-.73 1-1.3 1.67-1.7.67-.39 1.44-.59 2.32-.59.23 0 .48.02.77.06s.5.09.65.15l-.03 3.8c-.55-.09-1.09-.14-1.62-.14-1.82 0-3.04.67-3.67 2.01h-.02zm11.86 11.91v-5.67l1.79-1.79 5.17 7.47h4.71l-7.26-10.21 6.57-7.27h-4.91l-4.85 5.41-1.21 1.48V13.33h-4.06v24.81h4.06l-.02-.02zm25.5-.62c-1.15.62-2.53.94-4.17.94-1.73 0-3.24-.36-4.53-1.11s-2.27-1.74-2.97-3.03-1.03-2.71-1.03-4.32v-.67c0-1.8.35-3.38 1.05-4.74s1.67-2.41 2.88-3.15c1.23-.74 2.61-1.12 4.14-1.12 1.67 0 3.08.36 4.21 1.08 1.14.73 1.98 1.73 2.54 3.03s.85 2.8.85 4.51v1.7h-11.56c.08.89.32 1.68.71 2.38.39.68.92 1.23 1.59 1.62s1.45.58 2.35.58c1.83 0 3.3-.71 4.42-2.14l2.18 2.09c-.65.94-1.55 1.71-2.68 2.35zm-1.05-9.77h-7.44c.18-1.32.61-2.35 1.26-3.09.65-.73 1.51-1.11 2.59-1.11 1.2 0 2.09.36 2.65 1.09s.88 1.65.94 2.79zm15.37 10.31c-.79.26-1.67.39-2.65.39-1.44 0-2.58-.39-3.41-1.18s-1.24-2.05-1.24-3.76v-9.89h-2.88v-2.97h2.88v-4.26h4.07v4.26h3.11v2.97h-3.11v9.6c0 .73.15 1.23.45 1.5.3.26.76.39 1.38.39.44 0 .89-.06 1.39-.17v3.11zM42.76 24.28V0L0 12.04v28.93l42.76 12.04V24.27zm-4.13-1.16V5.42L7.21 14.27zm-3.08 3.39L4.14 17.66v17.69l31.42-8.85zM7.21 38.75l31.42 8.85V29.89L7.21 38.74v.02z"/></g></svg>')}.sqop__go--big .sqop__lg{height:15px}.sqop__go--big .sqop__lg--k{width:58px}.sqop__go--big .sqop__lg--p{width:66px}\n@media(max-width:560px){\n .sqop{padding:18px 13px 20px}.sqop__hdr{display:none}\n .sqop__hd{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 10px}\n .sqop__who{flex:1 1 100%}.sqop__st{flex:1 1 0;text-align:left}\n .sqop__st em{display:block;font-style:normal;font-size:9px;text-transform:uppercase;color:rgba(168,224,57,.85);font-weight:800;margin-bottom:1px}\n .sqop__st .src{display:none}.sqop__vwrap{flex:1 1 100%;text-align:left}\n .sqop__book{flex-wrap:wrap}.sqop__book .bp{flex:1 1 100%}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"sqop\">\n  <span class=\"sqop__mk\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewBox=\"0 0 696 696\" fill=\"#a8e039\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" style=\"flex:0 0 auto\"><path d=\"M473.282 222.72H696.002C696.002 99.6672 596.335 0 473.282 0H250.562C250.562 123.053 350.23 222.72 473.282 222.72Z\"\/><path d=\"M222.72 445.44V0C99.6672 0 0 99.6672 0 222.72C0 345.773 99.6672 445.44 222.72 445.44Z\"\/><path d=\"M473.281 250.563V696.003C596.334 696.003 696.001 596.336 696.001 473.283C696.001 350.231 596.334 250.563 473.281 250.563Z\"\/><path d=\"M222.72 473.277H0C0 596.33 99.6672 695.997 222.72 695.997H445.44C445.44 572.944 345.773 473.277 222.72 473.277Z\"\/><\/svg>Squawka Signal &middot; Super Bowl<\/span>\n  <h2 class=\"sqop__ttl\">NFL <b>Super Bowl<\/b> odds &amp; Signal model<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"sqop__lede\">Signal makes <b>Buffalo Bills<\/b> the Super Bowl favorite at <b>18%<\/b>. Every team below carries our model&#8217;s Super Bowl probability for every team, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.<\/p>\n  <p class=\"sqop__upd\">Updated October 10, 2026 &middot; refreshed daily<\/p>\n  <div class=\"sqop__hdr\"><span><\/span><span>Model<\/span><span>Market<\/span><span>Read<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__list\"><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/BUF.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Buffalo Bills<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>17.8%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>10.7%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#7ee0811f;color:#7ee081\">Value<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">10.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">11.0%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/MIN.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Minnesota Vikings<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>16.0%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>3.1%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#a8e0391f;color:#a8e039\">Strong value<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">3.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.9%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/JAC.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Jacksonville Jaguars<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>11.4%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>6.1%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#7ee0811f;color:#7ee081\">Value<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">6.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">5.7%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/SF.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">San Francisco 49ers<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>10.4%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>9.8%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">10.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">9.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/SEA.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Seattle Seahawks<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>9.2%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>8.2%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">8.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">8.2%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/KC.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Kansas City Chiefs<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>6.3%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>9.6%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#f0b4291f;color:#f0b429\">Priced in<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">9.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">9.8%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/DEN.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Denver Broncos<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>4.9%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>3.3%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">3.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">3.2%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/LA.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Los Angeles Rams<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>4.9%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>11.7%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#f0b4291f;color:#f0b429\">Priced in<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">11.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">12.0%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/NE.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">New England Patriots<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>4.7%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>2.7%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.5%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.9%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/BAL.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Baltimore Ravens<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>4.2%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>6.8%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">6.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">7.3%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/CHI.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Chicago Bears<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>2.5%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>5.1%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">5.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">4.7%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/PHI.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Philadelphia Eagles<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>2.0%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>2.4%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.5%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.2%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/CIN.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Cincinnati Bengals<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>1.5%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>3.5%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">3.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">3.7%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/DET.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Detroit Lions<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>1.4%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>2.6%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.5%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">2.8%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/ATL.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Atlanta Falcons<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>0.6%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>1.4%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">1.5%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">1.4%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><div class=\"sqop__row\"><div class=\"sqop__hd\"><div class=\"sqop__who\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sqop__crest\" src=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/wp-content\/themes\/squawka\/inc\/NFL\/assets\/team-logos\/PIT.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"><div style=\"min-width:0\"><div class=\"nm\">Pittsburgh Steelers<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--s\"><em>Model<\/em><b>0.6%<\/b><\/div><div class=\"sqop__st sqop__st--m\"><em>Market<\/em><b>0.6%<\/b><span class=\"src\">Kalshi + Polymarket<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sqop__vwrap\"><span class=\"sqop__vd\" style=\"background:#9fb6aa1f;color:#9fb6aa\">In line<\/span><\/div><\/div><details><summary>Kalshi &amp; Polymarket prices<\/summary><div class=\"sqop__dr\"><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"bp\">0.5%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><div class=\"sqop__book\"><span class=\"bk\">Polymarket<\/span><span class=\"bp\">0.6%<\/span><a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p \" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div>\n  <div class=\"sqop__ctas\">\n    <a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--k sqop__go--big\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--k\"><\/span><\/span>Trade the Super Bowl market on Kalshi<\/a>\n    <a class=\"sqop__go sqop__go--p sqop__go--big\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"sqop__lchip\"><span class=\"sqop__lg sqop__lg--p\"><\/span><\/span>Trade on Polymarket<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n  <h2 class=\"sqop__h\">How to read it<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"sqop__p\"><b>Model<\/b> is Squawka Signal&#8217;s probability for each team &#8212; a data-led read built from team strength and simulated to the end of the season. <b>Market<\/b> is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market column is a consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, de-vigged; the per-book split is in each row&#8217;s drawer. Where only one book prices a market, we show it tagged and the other joins automatically once it trades.<\/p>\n  <h2 class=\"sqop__h\">FAQ<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"sqop__p\"><b>Who is favorite for the NFL Super Bowl?<\/b> Buffalo Bills at 18% on Signal&#8217;s model. The full order, with the market&#8217;s view alongside, is in the table.<\/p>\n  <p class=\"sqop__p\"><b>How often does this update?<\/b> Every day. Signal re-simulates the season as results land, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.<\/p>\n  <h2 class=\"sqop__h\">More from Squawka Signal<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"sqop__p\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/nfl\/nfl-news\/nfl-signal-methodology\/\" style=\"color:#a8e039;text-decoration:underline\">How Squawka Signal works<\/a> &middot; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/nfl\/nfl-news\/nfl-ai-predictor\/\" style=\"color:#a8e039;text-decoration:underline\">NFL AI Predictor<\/a> &middot; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/nfl\/\" style=\"color:#a8e039;text-decoration:underline\">NFL on Squawka<\/a><\/p>\n  <p class=\"sqop__note\">21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Squawka Signal &middot; Super Bowl NFL Super Bowl odds &amp; Signal model Signal makes Buffalo Bills the Super Bowl favorite at 18%. Every team below carries our model&#8217;s Super Bowl probability for every team, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree. Updated October 10, 2026 &middot;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":393,"featured_media":36229,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"nfl super bowl odds","_yoast_wpseo_title":"NFL Super Bowl LXI Odds 2027: Model vs Market | Squawka | US","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Live NFL Super Bowl LXI odds from the Squawka Signal model vs the prediction market (Polymarket + Kalshi), with a value verdict on every team. 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