{"id":29168,"date":"2026-08-04T20:37:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T00:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=outright_markets&p=29168"},"modified":"2026-08-04T20:39:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T00:39:18","slug":"premier-league-top-goalscorer-odds-2026-27","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/premier-league-top-goalscorer-odds-2026-27\/","title":{"rendered":"Premier League 2026-27 Top Goalscorer Odds: Golden Boot Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Erling Haaland is the clear favourite for the 2026-27 Premier League Golden Boot<\/strong>, and our Squawka Signal model agrees — but the race behind him is where the model and the market part company. Below is our data-led Golden Boot probability for every leading contender, set against the live bet365 Top Goalscorer odds.<\/p>\n\n

Squawka Signal makes Erling Haaland the Golden Boot favourite at 37.0%<\/strong>, projecting around 21 goals, with Alexander Isak (Liverpool) next on 13.7%. The contender list follows the bet365 market, so it reflects the real 2026-27 squads — players who have left the league drop out, and movers show at their new clubs.<\/p>\n

Where the model splits from bet365: it is keener than the market on Alexander Isak (Liverpool) and Cole Palmer (Chelsea)<\/strong>. Pre-season the model leans to the market; those calls firm up or fade as goals are scored through 2026-27.<\/p>\n\n

Premier League 2026-27 Golden Boot odds: model vs market<\/h2>\n\n\n
<\/span>Squawka Signal · Model vs Market<\/div>

Premier League 2026-27 Golden Boot — Squawka Signal<\/h2>

Our model’s Golden Boot probability for every leading contender against the live bet365 Top Goalscorer market. The pool follows the market, so it tracks the actual 2026-27 squads; pre-season it leans on recent scoring form and the market, and sharpens as goals are scored. Tap any player for his projected goals.<\/p>

▲<\/span>Market under our model · value<\/span>▼<\/span>Market over our model · overpriced<\/span>▬<\/span>In line<\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"ManchesterErling HaalandManchester City<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>37.0%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>36.1%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>21<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>37.0%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>36.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>36.1%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
2<\/span>\"LiverpoolAlexander IsakLiverpool<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>13.7%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>6.0%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▲ Value<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>19<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>13.7%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>6.0%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>6.0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
3<\/span>\"BrentfordIgor ThiagoBrentford<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>7.1%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>5.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>15<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>7.1%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>5.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>5.5%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
4<\/span>\"AstonOllie WatkinsAston Villa<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>5.5%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>4.0%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>14<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>5.5%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>4.0%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>4.0%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
5<\/span>\"ChelseaCole PalmerChelsea<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>4.5%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▲ Value<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>15<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>4.5%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.5%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
6<\/span>\"NewcastleYoane WissaNewcastle United<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>4.3%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>15<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>4.3%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.5%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
7<\/span>\"ManchesterBryan MbeumoManchester United<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>4.2%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▲ Value<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>15<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>4.2%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
8<\/span>\"ArsenalViktor GyokeresArsenal<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>3.8%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>2.9%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>13<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>3.8%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>2.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>2.9%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
9<\/span>\"ManchesterBenjamin SeskoManchester United<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>3.8%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>2.9%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>13<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>3.8%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>2.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>2.9%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
10<\/span>\"ChelseaJoao PedroChelsea<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>3.5%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>3.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>12<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>3.5%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>3.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>3.5%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
11<\/span>\"TottenhamDominic SolankeTottenham Hotspur<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>2.8%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.8%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>13<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>2.8%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.8%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
12<\/span>\"ArsenalKai HavertzArsenal<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>2.2%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>12<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>2.2%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.5%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
13<\/span>\"ManchesterAntoine SemenyoManchester City<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>2.0%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>2.3%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>10<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>2.0%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>2.3%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>2.3%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
14<\/span>\"NewcastleNick WoltemadeNewcastle United<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.5%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>11<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>1.5%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
15<\/span>\"LiverpoolCody GakpoLiverpool<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>10<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
16<\/span>\"LeedsDominic Calvert-LewinLeeds United<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.0%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>9<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>1.0%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
17<\/span>\"ChelseaMorgan RogersChelsea<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.0%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>8<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>1.0%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
18<\/span>\"NottinghamMorgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham Forest<\/span><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.0%<\/span><\/span>bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ Fair<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Projected goals<\/span>8<\/b><\/div>
Golden Boot (model)<\/span>1.0%<\/b><\/div>
bet365<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
bet365 Top Goalscorer<\/span>1.2%<\/span>Bet<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div>
Bet the Top Goalscorer market with bet365<\/a><\/div>

Model % = Golden Boot probability across 40,000 season simulations, updated as goals are scored. Value<\/strong> = the market sits below our model, Overpriced<\/strong> = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our bet365 review<\/a> and the Signal methodology<\/a>.<\/p>