{"id":1516,"date":"2026-08-17T02:35:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T06:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=outright_markets&p=1516"},"modified":"2026-08-17T02:35:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T06:35:10","slug":"liga-mx-apertura-2026-winner-odds","status":"publish","type":"outright_markets","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/outright-markets\/liga-mx-apertura-2026-winner-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Liga MX Apertura 2026 Title Odds: Contenders & Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Liga MX resets this weekend, and the Apertura 2026 title market opens with a twist: it is Guadalajara, not the reigning champions Cruz Azul, that the money makes favourite.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cruz Azul lifted the Clausura 2026 from third on the Tabla General, their first title since 2021, seeing off Pumas UNAM over two legs. A new tournament wipes that slate clean — eighteen clubs, seventeen matchdays, a fresh Liguilla — and the market treats it as the open race it usually is.<\/p>\n\n

Our Squawka Signal<\/strong> model is now live for Apertura 2026 — a data-led title probability for every club that runs the whole Liguilla, set against the live market. It updates after every matchday. Follow the race on the Liga MX hub<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

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<\/span>Squawka Signal · Model vs Market<\/div>

Liga MX Apertura 2026 Champion — Squawka Signal<\/h2>

Our model’s Apertura 2026 title probability for every club against the live Kalshi market — run all the way through the Liguilla, 10,000 times. It leans on last season plus the games played so far, and sharpens every matchday. Tap any club for its Squawka Rating and Liguilla odds.<\/p>

▲<\/span>Market under our model · value<\/span>▼<\/span>Market over our model · overpriced<\/span>▬<\/span>In line<\/span><\/div>
1<\/span>\"TolucaToluca<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>21.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>66<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>21.5%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>88.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
2<\/span>\"ClubClub Am\u00e9rica<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>16.8%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>62<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>16.8%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>89.7%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
3<\/span>\"GuadalajaraGuadalajara<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>10.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>60<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>10.2%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>74.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
4<\/span>\"TijuanaTijuana<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>10.1%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>56<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>10.1%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>84.4%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
5<\/span>\"CruzCruz Azul<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>9.7%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>62<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>9.7%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>66.6%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
6<\/span>\"PumasPumas UNAM<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>9.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>58<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>9.5%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>75.7%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
7<\/span>\"MonterreyMonterrey<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>7.3%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>55<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>7.3%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>72.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
8<\/span>\"TigresTigres UANL<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>5.1%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>62<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>5.1%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>36.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
9<\/span>\"PachucaPachuca<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>4.7%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>56<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>4.7%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>46.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
10<\/span>\"AtlasAtlas<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.7%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>44<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.7%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>46.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
11<\/span>\"Quer\u00e9taroQuer\u00e9taro<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.3%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>44<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.3%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>40.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
12<\/span>\"NecaxaNecaxa<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>1.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>44<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>35.6%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
13<\/span>\"Atl\u00e9ticoAtl\u00e9tico San Luis<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>45<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.5%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>14.1%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
14<\/span>\"AtlanteAtlante FC<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.2%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>37<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.2%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>11.8%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
15<\/span>\"Le\u00f3nLe\u00f3n<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.1%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>36<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.1%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>4.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
16<\/span>\"PueblaPuebla<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.1%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>34<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.1%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>7.9%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
17<\/span>\"Ju\u00e1rezJu\u00e1rez<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.0%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>41<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.0%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>2.5%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details>
18<\/span>\"SantosSantos Laguna<\/a><\/span>Squawka<\/span>0.0%<\/span><\/span><\/span>▬ No market<\/span>▾<\/span><\/summary>
Squawka Rating<\/span>36<\/b><\/div>
Win the title<\/span>0.0%<\/b><\/div>
Reach Liguilla<\/span>1.2%<\/b><\/div><\/div>
Kalshi market<\/span>–<\/span>Trade<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/details><\/div>
Trade the Liga MX title market on Kalshi<\/a><\/div>

Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = Apertura title probability across 10,000 simulations of the run-in and Liguilla, updated each matchday. Value<\/strong> = the market sits below our model, Overpriced<\/strong> = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review<\/a> and the Signal methodology<\/a>.<\/p>