{"id":7677,"date":"2026-05-25T22:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=7677"},"modified":"2026-06-09T05:06:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T09:06:43","slug":"cruz-azul-vs-pumas-liga-mx-final-2026-predictions","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/cruz-azul-vs-pumas-liga-mx-final-2026-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul Predictions: Liga MX Clausura 2026 Final Picks & Odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul take the Liga MX<\/a> Clausura 2026 Final into a decisive leg 2 at the Estadio Ol\u00edmpico Universitario on Sunday, May 24, after a goalless first leg in Mexico City. Kick-off is 9pm ET \/ 6pm PT. Pumas advance with any drawn aggregate \u2014 Cruz Azul must win on the night.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Cruz Azul vs Pumas predictions land at the end of a Liguilla that has produced two very different paths to the title match. Pumas advanced past Club Am\u00e9rica in the Quarterfinals (6-6 on aggregate, through on regular-phase seeding) and edged Pachuca in the Semifinals (1-1 on aggregate, through on seeding again) after Jord\u00e1n Carrillo’s right-footed free kick rebounded off the post and in for the only goal of the second leg at Estadio Ol\u00edmpico Universitario. Keylor Navas’s late save from Gael \u00c1lvarez kept the tie alive in stoppage time. Cruz Azul are the only side to have won both their Liguilla ties on the scoreboard, beating Atlas 4-2 across the Quarterfinals and Guadalajara 4-3 in the Semifinal \u2014 sealed by Agust\u00edn Palavecino’s 66th-minute winner at Estadio AKRON. The opening leg of the Final, played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes on Thursday May 21, ended 0-0: Cruz Azul outshot Pumas 24-4 across the 90 but couldn’t break through, and Pumas absorbed the pressure to bank the away draw \u2014 effectively a half-step toward the trophy given the seeding tiebreaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market has hardened around Pumas after the leg-1 draw. bet365<\/a> carry Pumas as outright favorites \u2014 1st in the Tabla General on 36 points and plus-17 goal difference, hosting leg 2 at Ol\u00edmpico Universitario, and the side that advances on any drawn aggregate. Cruz Azul, the 3rd seed on 33 points and plus-13, now need a straight 90-minute win on the road to take the title. The leg-2 lines \u2014 Match Result, Correct Score, Over\/Under 2.5, Both Teams to Score \u2014 are live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Leg 1 finished goalless. Pumas now need a draw at home to lift the trophy; Cruz Azul need to win on the scoreboard. The leg-2 lines below are our picks heading into Sunday’s decider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pumas UNAM to win Liga MX Clausura 2026<\/strong><\/td>\nBet now @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\n\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nPumas advance on any drawn aggregate after the goalless leg 1. Tabla General champions, hosting leg 2 at Ol\u00edmpico Universitario, and Keylor Navas behind a back four that survived 24 Cruz Azul shots in Mexico City. The format protects them \u2014 they only need to avoid defeat.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pumas to win or draw leg 2 (Double Chance)<\/strong><\/td>\nBet now @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\n\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThe leg-2 expression of the outright pick. Pumas advance with any draw, so a Pumas-or-draw 90-minute result wins the trophy \u2014 a single price covering both routes home.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cruz Azul to win Liga MX Clausura 2026<\/strong><\/td>\nBet now @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\n\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nCruz Azul produced 24 shots and two big chances in leg 1 without scoring \u2014 the territorial volume is there, the conversion isn’t. La M\u00e1quina need a 90-minute win on the road to lift the trophy, but they were the only Liguilla side to win both previous ties on the scoreboard. The value side if you back finishing variance to correct.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gabriel “Toro” Fernandez<\/strong> to score anytime in leg 2<\/td>\nBet now @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\n\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nCruz Azul’s top scorer at 14 goals across the 2025\/26 cycle, and the side carrying the only urgency on the night. Cruz Azul must score to win; Toro is the natural anytime read.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Guillermo “Memote” Martinez<\/strong> to score anytime in leg 2<\/td>\nBet now @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\n\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nPumas’s leading scorer with 9 goals on the season. The natural striker outlet against a Cruz Azul side that has to push out and chase the game.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jord\u00e1n Carrillo<\/strong> to score anytime in leg 2<\/td>\nBet now @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\n\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nScored the Semifinal winner from a set piece against Pachuca. Pumas’s most in-form match-winner heading into the trophy leg.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach to these Pumas vs Cruz Azul predictions: the 0-0 leg 1 has narrowed the picture sharply. Pumas now need only a draw on Sunday to lift the trophy \u2014 three structural edges remain, and the format is doing most of the work. Cruz Azul threw 24 shots in leg 1 without scoring, so the eye-test argument for them is intact even if the scoreboard didn’t reward it. Toro Fernandez is the cleanest anytime-scorer read because Cruz Azul are the side that has to chase the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Note for US readers:<\/strong> Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi<\/a>, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prediction-market depth on Liga MX<\/a> is thinner than on European competitions, but Polymarket<\/a> traders typically open Liga MX Final winner markets in the days before kick-off, and Kalshi<\/a> has run Liga MX contracts intermittently across the Liguilla. We will reflect Polymarket and Kalshi pricing here once the Final markets list, with the seeding edge expected to push Pumas slightly inside Cruz Azul on the implied-probability read \u2014 the same shape bet365’s outright board carries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Liga MX Clausura 2026 Final \u2014 Dates, Venues & How to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Final is two-legged with aggregate goals deciding the title. The lower seed hosts leg 1; the higher seed hosts the return. Any tie level on aggregate after 180 minutes advances the higher-seeded side \u2014 in this case Pumas, the regular-phase points leader. Away goals do not separate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Leg<\/th>\nDate<\/th>\nHost<\/th>\nVenue<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Leg 1<\/td>\nThursday, May 21<\/td>\nCruz Azul<\/td>\nEstadio Ciudad de los Deportes, Mexico City \u2014 finished 0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Leg 2<\/td>\nSunday, May 24<\/td>\nPumas UNAM<\/td>\nEstadio Ol\u00edmpico Universitario, Mexico City \u2014 9pm ET kick-off<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Leg 2 kicks off Sunday May 24 at 9pm ET \/ 6pm PT (8pm Mexico City local). In the US, Liga MX coverage runs across TUDN, ViX and FOX Deportes depending on the fixture; the Final broadcast partner is confirmed by Liga MX closer to the whistle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cruz Azul’s Road to the Final<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The case behind these Cruz Azul vs Pumas predictions for La M\u00e1quina is the cleanest knockout run of the bracket. Cruz Azul finished third in the Tabla General on 33 points and plus-13 goal difference, then dispatched both Liguilla opponents on the scoreboard \u2014 the only side in the bracket to do so. The Quarterfinal against Atlas was won 4-2 on aggregate: a 3-2 road win in Guadalajara, then a 1-0 home result to lock in the tie. The Semifinal against Guadalajara was tighter \u2014 2-2 at home in leg 1, then a 2-1 road win at Estadio AKRON in leg 2 with Agust\u00edn Palavecino’s 66th-minute strike the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cruz Azul are chasing their tenth league title and their first since the Guard1anes 2021 Clausura \u2014 the 2021 celebration was muted by the Covid pandemic, and a 2026 trophy would be the club’s first proper title celebration in over a decade. Gabriel “Toro” Fernandez has carried the goal load with 14 across the 2025\/26 cycle; Jose Paradela’s 10 goals supply the secondary attacking edge, and Carlos Rodriguez’s midfield work has anchored the back-to-front balance through the Liguilla. In leg 1 of the Final at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes, Cruz Azul produced 24 shots and two big chances but failed to score against a deep Pumas block \u2014 they head to Ol\u00edmpico Universitario knowing only a win takes them through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pumas UNAM’s Road to the Final<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pumas finished as Tabla General champions on 36 points and plus-17 goal difference. The Liguilla has been less emphatic. The Quarterfinal against Club Am\u00e9rica ended 6-6 on aggregate across two 3-3 draws \u2014 at Estadio Azteca in leg 1 and at Estadio Ol\u00edmpico Universitario in leg 2 \u2014 with Pumas advancing on regular-phase position. The Semifinal against Pachuca followed the same template: a 1-0 leg 1 loss at Estadio Hidalgo, then a 1-0 home win at Ol\u00edmpico Universitario with Jord\u00e1n Carrillo’s right-footed free kick rebounding off the post and in for the only goal. Pachuca had two clear stoppage-time chances to take the tie outright; Keylor Navas saved one and Salom\u00f3n Rond\u00f3n skied the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pumas are chasing their eighth Liga MX title and their first since the 2011 Clausura \u2014 a 15-year drought ending would be the loudest story of the cycle. Guillermo “Memote” Martinez leads the line with 9 goals; Robert Morales and Olavinho add 8 apiece. Coach Efra\u00edn Ju\u00e1rez has built a side that has survived two knockout ties without winning a 90-minute scoreline \u2014 the price the seeding advantage carries. Leg 1 of the Final followed the same shape \u2014 a 0-0 in Mexico City with Cruz Azul taking 24 of the match’s 28 shots and Pumas riding the seeding tiebreaker into a home decider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Head-to-Head: Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The H2H this season favors Pumas: one Pumas win and one draw across the 2025\/26 cycle, with Pumas outscoring Cruz Azul 5-4 across the two meetings. Importantly, neither result landed at the seeded home. Pumas’s only win came as the away side at Cruz Azul’s home in November 2025, winning 3-2. Cruz Azul’s only positive result came as the away side at Estadio Ol\u00edmpico Universitario in March, coming back from 0-2 down at half-time to draw 2-2. The editorial point for the Final: each side has shown they can score on the other on the road \u2014 including, for Cruz Azul, at the venue that decides leg 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nMatch<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\nCompetition<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Mar 15, 2026<\/td>\nPumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\nLiga MX Clausura<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nov 9, 2025<\/td>\nCruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM<\/td>\n2-3 (Pumas)<\/td>\nLiga MX Apertura<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cruz Azul<\/h3>\n\n\n\n