{"id":7506,"date":"2026-05-15T07:28:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T11:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=7506"},"modified":"2026-05-21T07:05:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T11:05:34","slug":"match-preview-pumas-vs-pachuca-05-17-26-liga-mx-semifinals-2nd-leg","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-pumas-vs-pachuca-05-17-26-liga-mx-semifinals-2nd-leg\/","title":{"rendered":"Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Pumas UNAM host Pachuca on Sunday, May 17 at 9:00 PM ET \/ 8:00 PM CT \/ 6:00 PM PT at Estadio Ol\u00edmpico Universitario, trailing the Liguilla semifinal tie 1-0 on aggregate after Thursday’s first leg at Estadio Hidalgo, with a place in the Liga MX<\/a> Clausura 2026 final on the line.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca prediction starts with the asymmetric pressure of the tie. Pumas finished as the top seed of the regular season, so an aggregate draw after 90 minutes sends los Universitarios through. There is no extra time at the semifinal stage and no away-goals rule. To get level on aggregate, though, Pumas have to score at least one goal at CU. A 0-0 inside regulation lets Pachuca, the fourth seed, through to face the survivor of Chivas vs Cruz Azul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second variable reshapes the night. Eduardo, Pachuca’s ever-present center-back who played 38 of 38 regular-season matches, picked up a red card in the 91st minute of the first leg and is suspended for the return. los Tuzos lose their most-used defender precisely when they need a clean sheet most. Lines on the match-result market were not yet posted by bet365 at time of writing, with most U.S. operators expected to open prices in the 24 hours before kick-off \u2014 check bet365 for the latest<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca: Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The framing here is the cleanest of the four semifinal legs \u2014 Pumas have to score, Pachuca have to plug a hole in central defense, and the home crowd at CU will demand the early goal. That tilts our card toward Pumas to find a winner and toward goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pumas UNAM to win<\/strong> (Match Result)<\/td>\nLines opening soon @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nPumas need at least one goal to advance and have the home crowd at CU behind them. They won 2-0 at Pachuca on April 25 in the regular season \u2014 the same venue where they fell 0-1 in the first leg \u2014 and Pachuca will be without their most-used defender on Sunday night.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pumas UNAM to win to nil<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nPachuca have scored in only one of their last five matches. With Bauermann suspended and a Keylor Navas-led Pumas defense at home, a clean sheet on the night is the cleanest path to the higher-seed advance scenario.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: 2-0 Pumas UNAM<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThat was the exact result at Estadio Hidalgo on April 25 \u2014 the most recent meeting in which Pumas were the road side, with Robert Morales among the scorers. A repeat at CU clinches the tie outright.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Robert Morales<\/strong> to score anytime<\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nMorales leads the Pumas scoring chart with four Clausura goals from 20 matches and started the April 25 win at Pachuca. With Bauermann ruled out and Pachuca’s central pairing reshuffling, Morales gets the cleanest run at the channel he attacked last month.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 1.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThree of the last four head-to-head meetings between these clubs have produced two goals or more, and Pumas need to score to keep the season alive. A 1-0 either way is the only path that fails this line.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: No<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nPachuca have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches and registered the most recent one in the first leg. With their first-choice center-back unavailable through suspension and Pumas chasing an opening goal, los Tuzos may still struggle to find one on the counter.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Our approach: lead the card with Pumas to advance, layer Robert Morales as the anytime-scorer angle, and pair Over 1.5 goals with Both Teams to Score: No for the controlled-home-win lean. The 2-0 Pumas correct score is the speculative parlay add \u2014 it lands the higher-seed advance and the win-to-nil lean in one ticket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n

Match-specific prediction market pricing for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca has not yet surfaced at time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match once bet365<\/a> opens lines. We will update here if and when Kalshi<\/a> or Polymarket<\/a> list the fixture.<\/p>\n\n

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 8.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Season Form & Standings<\/h2>\n

Pumas UNAM finished as the top seed of the Tabla General<\/a> after MD17, level on points with Chivas at the summit but ahead on goal difference, and three points clear of Cruz Azul and Pachuca. The full Clausura 2026 fixture set<\/a> is locked at 17 regular-phase games \u2014 the table below reflects that final seeding, which is what shapes the aggregate-tie advantage on Sunday night.<\/p>\n

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Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pumas UNAM<\/strong><\/td>\n1<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n+17<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pachuca<\/strong><\/td>\n4<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n+6<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n