{"id":7505,"date":"2026-05-15T07:23:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T11:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=7505"},"modified":"2026-05-21T07:05:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T11:05:33","slug":"match-preview-chivas-vs-cruz-azul-05-16-26-liga-mx-semifinals-2nd-leg","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-chivas-vs-cruz-azul-05-16-26-liga-mx-semifinals-2nd-leg\/","title":{"rendered":"Chivas vs Cruz Azul: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Level at 2-2 after a wild first leg at Estadio Azteca, Chivas host Cruz Azul on Saturday, May 16 at 9:07 PM ET \/ 8:07 PM CT \/ 6:07 PM PT in a Liga MX<\/a> Clausura 2026 semifinal second leg with a place in the final on the line.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Chivas vs Cruz Azul prediction has to start with the relocation: Estadio Akron is unavailable for the second leg with 2026 World Cup prep work locking the venue, so el Reba\u00f1o Sagrado have moved this Liguilla tie down the road to Estadio Jalisco. It is still a home leg, still a sold-out Chivas crowd \u2014 just a different postcode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The wider stakes are clean. Chivas finished as the second seed of the Clausura regular season, Cruz Azul as the third seed, and with no extra time and no away-goals rule at the semifinal stage, an aggregate draw sends Chivas through on regular-season seeding. La M\u00e1quina cannot afford another tie. Lines on the match-result market were not yet posted by bet365 at time of writing, with most U.S. operators expected to open prices in the 24 hours before kick-off \u2014 check bet365 for the latest<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chivas vs Cruz Azul: Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The framing for this fixture is unusual \u2014 Chivas only have to avoid defeat in 90 minutes to advance, while Cruz Azul need a winner and have to chase it on the road. That tilts our card toward goals and the home side staying alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Chivas to win<\/strong> (Match Result)<\/td>\nLines opening soon @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nChivas have lost only three of 17 league matches all Clausura \u2014 fewer than any side in the top three \u2014 and the home crowd at Estadio Jalisco with progression on the line is a powerful nudge to chase the winner.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chivas Double Chance (1X)<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThe aggregate-tie math means a Chivas win or a draw both deliver progression; the Double Chance hedge captures the wider edge across both outcomes that send el Reba\u00f1o Sagrado to the final.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: 2-1 Chivas<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nCruz Azul have scored in 23 consecutive matches so a clean sheet is a hard ask, but Chivas opening at home and adding a second is the cleanest path to the higher-seed advance scenario.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Armando Gonz\u00e1lez<\/strong> to score anytime<\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThe 22-year-old has 24 goals in 35 matches across all competitions this season, the most of any Liga MX player heading into the second leg, and he was on target in leg one at Azteca.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThe first leg cleared this line and three of the last four H2H meetings between these clubs have produced three goals or more. Cruz Azul need a goal and Chivas can score in transition.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>\nCheck bet365 for latest<\/strong><\/a>
(prices TBC)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nCruz Azul have scored in 23 straight Liga MX matches, and Chivas have not been blanked at home in their last four. Both nets have been broken in four of five H2H meetings stretching back to August.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Our approach: lead the card with Chivas to advance, layer the Armando Gonz\u00e1lez anytime scorer for player-prop value, and pair Over 2.5 with Both Teams to Score for the goals lean. The 2-1 Chivas correct score is the speculative parlay add \u2014 it lands the higher-seed advance and the goals lean in one ticket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\t\tGet Offer<\/a>
\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Match-specific prediction market pricing for Chivas vs Cruz Azul has not yet surfaced at time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match once bet365<\/a> opens lines. We will update here if and when Kalshi<\/a> or Polymarket<\/a> list the fixture.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 8.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Season Form & Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chivas finished as the second seed of the Tabla General<\/a> after MD17, separated from Cruz Azul by three points and by goals scored on the secondary tiebreaker. The full Clausura 2026 fixture set<\/a> is locked at 17 regular-phase games \u2014 the table below reflects that final seeding, which is what shapes the aggregate-tie advantage on Saturday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Chivas<\/strong><\/td>\n2<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n+16<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cruz Azul<\/strong><\/td>\n3<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n+13<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n