{"id":63074,"date":"2026-10-02T11:57:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T15:57:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-usa-vs-mexico-10-03-26-friendly\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T12:14:03","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T16:14:03","slug":"match-preview-usa-vs-mexico-10-03-26-friendly","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/internationals\/match-preview-usa-vs-mexico-10-03-26-friendly\/","title":{"rendered":"USA vs Mexico: Prediction, Best Bets &#038; How to Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Our USA vs Mexico prediction, best bets and odds for Saturday&#8217;s friendly at State Farm Stadium &#8212; the third game of Mauricio Pochettino&#8217;s four-match October window, and the one that actually matters.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kick-off in Glendale, Arizona is 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 3. Full US broadcast details are below.<\/p>\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-bpg{--lime:#a8e039;--glow:#c8f24c;--tx:#f4f8f1;--mut:rgba(244,248,241,.62);--line:rgba(255,255,255,.10);--gold:#F7B500;--b365:#ffdd00;position:relative;overflow:hidden;isolation:isolate;font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;color:var(--tx);max-width:960px;margin:12px auto 30px;border-radius:18px;background:radial-gradient(70% 90% at 18% 0%,rgba(168,224,57,.20) 0%,rgba(168,224,57,0) 60%),linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);box-shadow:0 18px 44px rgba(10,44,31,.32)}\n.sq-bpg *{box-sizing:border-box}\n.sq-bpg__wrap{position:relative;z-index:1;padding:26px 30px 24px}\n.sq-bpg__ttl{font-size:26px;font-weight:800;letter-spacing:-.3px;line-height:1.12;margin:0;color:var(--tx)}\n.sq-bpg__sub{margin:8px 0 0;font-size:14.5px;line-height:1.5;color:var(--mut);max-width:70ch}\n.sq-bpg__list{margin-top:18px;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}\n.sq-bpg__row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 122px;gap:14px;align-items:center;padding:15px 2px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}\n.sq-bpg__pk{font-size:16px;font-weight:800;line-height:1.25;color:var(--tx)}\n.sq-bpg__top{display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;margin-left:8px;font-size:10px;font-weight:800;letter-spacing:.8px;text-transform:uppercase;color:#5b3b00;background:linear-gradient(90deg,#ffe07a,var(--gold));padding:3px 8px;border-radius:6px}\n.sq-bpg__why{display:block;margin-top:5px;font-size:13.5px;line-height:1.5;color:var(--mut)}\n.sq-bpg__pr{text-align:center}\n.sq-bpg__prob{display:block;font-size:26px;font-weight:800;color:var(--lime);line-height:1;text-decoration:none}\na.sq-bpg__prob:hover{text-decoration:underline}\n.sq-bpg__kal{display:block;font-size:20px;font-weight:800;color:#c8f24c;line-height:1;text-decoration:none}\na.sq-bpg__kal:hover{text-decoration:underline}\n.sq-bpg__rule{display:block;height:1px;background:var(--line);margin:9px 14px}\n.sq-bpg__prl{display:block;font-size:10.5px;letter-spacing:.4px;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--mut);margin-top:3px}\n.sq-bpg__approach{margin:15px 0 0;font-size:13.5px;line-height:1.55;color:var(--tx)}\n.sq-bpg__act{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:16px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-top:16px;padding:16px 18px;border-radius:14px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);border:1px solid var(--line)}\n.sq-bpg__act-txt{flex:1;min-width:200px}\n.sq-bpg__act-txt b{display:block;font-size:16px;color:var(--tx)}\n.sq-bpg__act-txt span{display:block;font-size:13px;color:var(--mut);margin-top:2px}\n.sq-bpg__cta{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:6px;font-size:15px;font-weight:800;text-decoration:none;padding:13px 22px;border-radius:11px;white-space:nowrap;background:var(--b365);color:#1a1a1a;box-shadow:0 8px 18px rgba(0,0,0,.28)}\n.sq-bpg__cta--kal{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#a8e039,#c8f24c);color:#08251a;box-shadow:0 8px 18px rgba(168,224,57,.28)}\n.sq-bpg__review{display:inline-block;margin:8px 0 0;font-size:13px;color:var(--mut);text-decoration:underline}\n.sq-bpg__disc{margin:12px 0 0;font-size:11.5px;line-height:1.5;color:rgba(244,248,241,.5)}\n@media(max-width:640px){\n .sq-bpg__wrap{padding:22px 16px 20px}\n .sq-bpg__ttl{font-size:21px}\n .sq-bpg__row{grid-template-columns:1fr 96px;gap:10px}\n .sq-bpg__prob{font-size:22px}\n .sq-bpg__act{padding:14px}\n .sq-bpg__cta{width:100%;justify-content:center}\n}\n@media(max-width:400px){\n .sq-bpg__ttl{font-size:19px}\n .sq-bpg__pk{font-size:15px}\n .sq-bpg__why{font-size:12.5px}\n .sq-bpg__row{grid-template-columns:1fr 82px}\n .sq-bpg__prob{font-size:19px}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"sq-bpg\" id=\"sq-bpg-usamex1003\">\n <div class=\"sq-bpg__wrap\">\n  <h2 class=\"sq-bpg__ttl\">USA vs Mexico: Best Bets &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"sq-bpg__sub\">Form says the United States comfortably. The price says a coin flip. We will take the side of that disagreement.<\/p>\n  <div class=\"sq-bpg__list\">\n<div class=\"sq-bpg__row\"><div><span class=\"sq-bpg__pk\">USA to win<\/span><span class=\"sq-bpg__top\">Top pick<\/span><span class=\"sq-bpg__why\">The United States have won both games of this window 4-1 and 4-2. Mexico have drawn both of theirs 1-1. The market has them close to level, which is pricing the rivalry rather than the form.<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sq-bpg__pr\"><a class=\"sq-bpg__kal\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">40%<\/a><span class=\"sq-bpg__prl\">Kalshi<\/span><span class=\"sq-bpg__rule\"><\/span><a class=\"sq-bpg__prob\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-top-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">+148<\/a><span class=\"sq-bpg__prl\">best price<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"sq-bpg__row\"><div><span class=\"sq-bpg__pk\">Both teams to score: Yes<\/span><span class=\"sq-bpg__why\">Pochettino has conceded in both games even while scoring eight, and Mexico have found the net in each of their two under Rafael M&#225;rquez. Neither back line has looked settled.<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sq-bpg__pr\"><a class=\"sq-bpg__prob\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-top-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">-149<\/a><span class=\"sq-bpg__prl\">best price<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"sq-bpg__row\"><div><span class=\"sq-bpg__pk\">USA &amp; both teams to score<\/span><span class=\"sq-bpg__why\">The value expression of the first two picks. A home win that is not a clean sheet is the single most likely shape of this game and it pays close to four to one.<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sq-bpg__pr\"><a class=\"sq-bpg__prob\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-top-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">+375<\/a><span class=\"sq-bpg__prl\">best price<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <p class=\"sq-bpg__approach\"><b>Our approach:<\/b> back the United States, but take the version of it that expects Mexico to score.<\/p>\n  <div class=\"sq-bpg__act\"><div class=\"sq-bpg__act-txt\"><b>Trade this market on Kalshi<\/b><span>Prices are live CFTC-regulated event contracts and move with the market.<\/span><\/div>\n    <a class=\"sq-bpg__cta sq-bpg__cta--kal\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Trade on Kalshi &rarr;<\/a><\/div>\n  <div class=\"sq-bpg__act\"><div class=\"sq-bpg__act-txt\"><b>Back these with bet365<\/b><span>Prices move quickly on international fixtures &mdash; check bet365 for the latest.<\/span><\/div>\n    <a class=\"sq-bpg__cta\" href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-top-wof-s-spo\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Bet with bet365 &rarr;<\/a><\/div>\n  <a class=\"sq-bpg__review\" href=\"\/us\/bet\/betting-sites\/bet365\/\">bet365 review<\/a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a class=\"sq-bpg__review\" href=\"\/us\/bet\/betting-sites\/kalshi\/\">Kalshi review<\/a>\n  <p class=\"sq-bpg__disc\">Kalshi probabilities reflect live market prices at the time of writing. Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook bets. Sportsbook prices are the best available across the market at the time of writing and are shown in American format; your local odds and offer are served on click. 21+. Eligibility and T&amp;Cs vary by state. Please bet responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/p>\n  <p class=\"sq-bpg__disc\"><strong>bet365 T&amp;Cs:<\/strong> 21+ (18+ in the District of Columbia) and physically located in AZ, CO, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA (permitted parishes only), MD, MI, MO, NJ, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA or WV. New customers only who have never previously claimed a bet365 New Customer Promo. Not available to anyone on an exclusion list. App exclusive: you must claim the promo via the bet365 app (iOS and Android only) within 30 days of registering your account. Minimum $10 deposit required, made in the 7 days before you claim. Place qualifying bets of $10 or more; any straight bet at odds shorter than -500 will not count, and a parlay needs at least one selection at -500 or greater. Qualifying bets must settle within 30 days of claiming. Bonus Bets are non-withdrawable and the Bonus Bets wager is excluded from returns. Bonus Bets expire 7 days after they are credited; if further Bonus Bets are added inside that window, the whole balance expires 7 days after the last addition. Promotion closes to new customers at 08:59 AM ET on 20 October 2026. Full T&amp;Cs apply. In MI, NJ and PA bet365 runs a separate version of this promotion that also awards 50 Spins. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/p>\n  <p class=\"sq-bpg__disc\"><strong>Kalshi T&amp;Cs:<\/strong> Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com\/tc\/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com\/regulatory for more information.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2>Where to watch USA vs Mexico<\/h2>\n<p>USA vs Mexico kicks off at 10:00 PM ET \/ 9:00 PM CT \/ 7:00 PM PT on Saturday, October 3, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Arizona does not observe daylight saving, so that is 7:00 PM locally.<\/p>\n<p>In the United States the game is on TNT and streams on HBO Max in English, with Spanish-language coverage on Telemundo, Universo and Peacock.<\/p>\n\n<h2>USA vs Mexico: what&#8217;s at stake?<\/h2>\n<p>Nothing is on the line and everyone involved knows it, which has never once stopped this fixture from being worth watching. What gives it an edge this time is how differently the two sides have arrived.<\/p>\n<p>Pochettino has won both games of the window, beating Peru 4-1 in Orlando and Chile 4-2 in St. Louis, eight goals in six days from a squad he has openly been rotating. It is the most fluent the United States have looked since the World Cup, where they topped their group and went out to Belgium in the round of 16.<\/p>\n<p>Mexico are three weeks into the Rafael M&#225;rquez era and have drawn both of his first two in charge, 1-1 with Colombia in Baltimore and 1-1 with Peru. Two goals in two games, no defeat either. A new coach taking stock is a reasonable reading; so is a side that has not yet worked out how it wants to attack.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;border:1px solid #e7e2ec;border-radius:14px;overflow:hidden;margin:28px 0;background:#fff;\"><div style=\"background:#17121f;color:#fff;padding:14px 18px;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:12px;flex-wrap:wrap;\"><span style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;flex-wrap:wrap;\"><span style=\"font-size:11px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#b38bff;\">Shop the match<\/span><span style=\"font-size:15px;font-weight:600;\">USA <span style=\"color:#ffffff80;font-weight:400;\">v<\/span> Mexico<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:11.5px;color:#ffffff99;\">Official kits via Fanatics<\/span><\/div><div style=\"display:flex;gap:12px;flex-wrap:wrap;padding:16px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fanatics.93n6tx.net\/c\/2650836\/669352\/9663?prodsku=203965490&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fanatics.com%2Fsoccer-national-teams%2Fusmnt%2Fjerseys%2Fusmnt-nike-2026-home-stadium-replica-jersey-white%2Fo-2523%2Bt-47952715%2Bd-08440101%2Bf-427886430%2Bz-9-1791008422&amp;intsrc=APIG_5042&amp;subId1=shop-the-match&amp;subId2=usa-v-mexico&amp;subId3=squawka-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" style=\"flex:1 1 170px;min-width:170px;display:flex;flex-direction:column;text-decoration:none;color:#17121f;border:1px solid #e7e2ec;border-radius:10px;padding:12px;background:#fff;\"><span style=\"aspect-ratio:1\/1;border-radius:8px;background:#f6f4f8;border:1px solid #eee;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;overflow:hidden;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fanatics.frgimages.com\/usmnt\/mens-nike-white-usmnt-2026-home-stadium-replica-jersey_ss5_p-203965490+pv-1+u-it1nev0d5ux18upodbtk+v-bpkaffazj30helruvqt6.png?_hv=2&amp;w=300\" alt=\"Men&#x27;s Nike White USMNT 2026 Home Stadium Replica Jersey\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width:100%;height:100%;object-fit:contain;\"><\/span><span style=\"margin-top:11px;font-size:11px;font-weight:600;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8b8496;\">Nike<\/span><span style=\"margin-top:4px;font-size:13.5px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.3;flex:1;\">Men&#x27;s Nike White USMNT 2026 Home Stadium Replica Jersey<\/span><span style=\"margin-top:11px;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:8px;\"><span><\/span><span style=\"background:#6f00ff;color:#fff;font-size:12px;font-weight:700;padding:7px 13px;border-radius:8px;\">Shop<\/span><\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/fanatics.93n6tx.net\/c\/2650836\/669352\/9663?prodsku=203487830&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fanatics.com%2Fsoccer-national-teams%2Fmexico-national-team%2Fmexico-national-team-adidas-2026-away-on-field-authentic-jersey-white%2Fo-2590%2Bt-36942004%2Bp-7900369306122%2Bz-9-2716872484&amp;intsrc=APIG_5042&amp;subId1=shop-the-match&amp;subId2=usa-v-mexico&amp;subId3=squawka-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"sponsored nofollow noopener\" style=\"flex:1 1 170px;min-width:170px;display:flex;flex-direction:column;text-decoration:none;color:#17121f;border:1px solid #e7e2ec;border-radius:10px;padding:12px;background:#fff;\"><span style=\"aspect-ratio:1\/1;border-radius:8px;background:#f6f4f8;border:1px solid #eee;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;overflow:hidden;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fanatics.frgimages.com\/mexico-national-team\/mens-adidas-white-mexico-national-team-2026-away-on-field-authentic-jersey_ss5_p-203487830+pv-1+u-1wsss26xqfp8ukjbl8rk+v-adrv64q5bnbfndclemzu.png?_hv=2&amp;w=300\" alt=\"Men&#x27;s adidas White Mexico National Team 2026 Away On-Field Authentic Jersey\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width:100%;height:100%;object-fit:contain;\"><\/span><span style=\"margin-top:11px;font-size:11px;font-weight:600;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8b8496;\">adidas<\/span><span style=\"margin-top:4px;font-size:13.5px;font-weight:600;line-height:1.3;flex:1;\">Men&#x27;s adidas White Mexico National Team 2026 Away On-Field Authentic Jersey<\/span><span style=\"margin-top:11px;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:8px;\"><span><\/span><span style=\"background:#6f00ff;color:#fff;font-size:12px;font-weight:700;padding:7px 13px;border-radius:8px;\">Shop<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n<h2>Team news and talking points<\/h2>\n<p>Both coaches have been explicit that this window is about looking at players, and both have rotated heavily already \u2014 Pochettino across four games in 11 days, M\u00e1rquez across his first three. Expect changes again here, and expect them to matter less than usual to the result. Glendale will be loud and the split in the stands will be nothing like a normal United States home game; State Farm Stadium has long been one of the venues where Mexico travel best. Pochettino closes the window against Canada on Tuesday, and the rest of it is in our <a href=\"\/us\/news\/internationals\/\">international coverage<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<h2>USA vs Mexico prediction<\/h2>\n<p>Mexico are the better name and, right now, the lesser team. M&#225;rquez has not had long enough to impose much and his forwards have managed two goals in two games against opposition the United States put eight past. Pochettino&#8217;s side are rotating and still scoring, and they get to do it in front of a crowd that will at least be partly theirs. Both will score, because neither defence has convinced. Prediction: USA 2-1.<\/p>\n\n<h2>USA vs Mexico FAQ<\/h2>\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">What time is USA vs Mexico?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">USA vs Mexico kicks off at 10:00 PM ET \/ 9:00 PM CT \/ 7:00 PM PT on Saturday, October 3.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">What channel is USA vs Mexico on in the US?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">The game is on TNT and HBO Max in English, and on Telemundo, Universo and Peacock in Spanish.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Where is USA vs Mexico being played?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">USA vs Mexico is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"schema-faq-section\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Who will win USA vs Mexico?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Our prediction is USA 2-1. Our top pick is USA to win at +148.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p><em>21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds correct at time of writing<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our USA vs Mexico prediction, best bets and odds for Saturday&#8217;s friendly at State Farm Stadium &#8212; the third game of Mauricio Pochettino&#8217;s four-match October window, and the one that actually matters. Kick-off in Glendale, Arizona is 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 3. Full US broadcast details are below. USA vs Mexico: Best Bets&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":394,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"usa vs mexico prediction","_yoast_wpseo_title":"USA vs Mexico Prediction, Best Bets & How to Watch | Squawka","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Our USA vs Mexico prediction, best bets and odds for Saturday's friendly at State Farm Stadium, plus how to watch on TNT and HBO Max. Kick-off 10:00 PM ET.","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"news-category":[455],"class_list":["post-63074","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry","news-category-internationals"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>USA vs Mexico Prediction, Best Bets &amp; How to Watch | Squawka<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our USA vs Mexico prediction, best bets and odds for Saturday&#039;s friendly at State Farm Stadium, plus how to watch on TNT and HBO Max. 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