{"id":6187,"date":"2026-05-15T06:03:48","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T10:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=6187"},"modified":"2026-05-27T11:57:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T15:57:42","slug":"match-preview-burnley-vs-aston-villa-10-05-26-premier-league","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-burnley-vs-aston-villa-10-05-26-premier-league\/","title":{"rendered":"Burnley vs Aston Villa: Predictions, odds, picks & stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Burnley vs Aston Villa kicks off at Turf Moor on Sunday, May 10 at 9:00 AM ET \/ 8:00 AM CT \/ 6:00 AM PT, and the table tells you everything about the gap between these two.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Clarets are mathematically down, locked into 19th on 20 points after a 3-1 loss at Leeds last weekend. Aston Villa, by contrast, sit fifth on 58 points, level with Liverpool but behind on goal difference, with the last Champions League<\/a> berth still in their hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Burnley, the season ends in numbers that will sting for a while: 35 goals scored, 71 conceded, a -36 goal difference. There is nothing to chase here except a final home performance worth remembering. Villa arrive with a clearer brief \u2014 keep Bournemouth, six points back in sixth, at arm’s length and stay within touching distance of Liverpool until the final whistle of the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That asymmetry shapes the betting card. Villa are short-priced favorites at bet365<\/a>, the goals market leans heavily towards over 2.5, and the goalscorer prices on Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers reflect a Burnley defense that has shipped goals in 27 of 35 matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Aston Villa to win<\/strong><\/td>\n-167 @ bet365<\/a>
(62.5%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nVilla beat Burnley 2-1 at Villa Park earlier this season and have lost only once on the road in their past five away league trips.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aston Villa to win 3-1<\/strong><\/td>\n+1200 @ bet365<\/a>
(7.7%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nVilla’s away output has them averaging more than two goals on the road, and Burnley have shipped at least one in 13 of their 17 home league games \u2014 a 3-1 visitors’ win lines up with Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ollie Watkins<\/span> to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n+130 @ bet365<\/a>
(43.5%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nWatkins leads Villa with 11 league goals and 9.95 xG; only Morgan Rogers has more shots on target for the away side this season.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-138 @ bet365<\/a>
(58.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nBurnley average just over two goals shipped per match. Villa have scored in 12 of 15 away league fixtures.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both teams to score – Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n-125 @ bet365<\/a>
(55.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nBurnley have scored in eight of their last 10 home league games, and Lyle Foster, Zian Flemming and Jaidon Anthony all carry attacking threat.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The cleanest read is to lean on Villa’s away form and Watkins’ goal-getting record, with the over-2.5 line as a supporting bet. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n

Note for US readers:<\/strong> Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi<\/a>, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a> price Aston Villa as decisive favourites \u2014 the visitors chase fifth and Burnley’s relegation has flattened the home market. The line is wide rather than tight. Goals markets nudge over: Villa’s road output and Burnley’s defensive numbers both feed that side. The widget below merges the two providers’ Match Result book in one view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loading match…<\/div>\n\n\n
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\n\t\t\t \n\t\t CODE: ACQUIRE05<\/span>\n\t\t
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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 8.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at\u00a0ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

Season Form & Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The two clubs sit 38 points and 16 league places apart. The full Premier League table<\/a> shows just how stretched the 2025\/26 season has been at both ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Aston Villa<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n+4<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Burnley<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n71<\/td>\n-36<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n