{"id":5741,"date":"2026-05-15T05:53:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T09:53:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=5741"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:03:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T16:03:49","slug":"match-preview-pachuca-vs-toluca-05-10-26-liga-mx-quarterfinals-2nd-leg","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-pachuca-vs-toluca-05-10-26-liga-mx-quarterfinals-2nd-leg\/","title":{"rendered":"Pachuca vs Toluca: Predictions, odds, picks & stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pachuca defend a slender lead at the Estadio Hidalgo on Sunday night.<\/strong> Los Tuzos won the first leg 1-0 in Toluca thanks to an Enner Valencia strike, and now host Los Diablos Rojos with a one-goal aggregate cushion, plus the higher-seeded-advances rule on their side. Kick-off is Sunday, May 10, at 7:00 PM ET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The maths matter. Pachuca advance with a win, a draw, or a one-goal defeat \u2014 the higher seed (4th vs 5th) goes through if the aggregate ends level. Toluca, the lower seed, need to win by at least two to reach the semi-finals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was a low-scoring leg one \u2014 Valencia the Pachuca matchwinner, Toluca generated chances but couldn’t break Carlos Moreno’s clean sheet. Expect more open play this time as Toluca have to chase, but Pachuca’s defensive structure on home turf is the headline angle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions: Pachuca vs Toluca<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/strong><\/td>Odds & Sportsbook<\/strong><\/td>Confidence<\/strong><\/td>Why We’re Backing It<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
Pachuca to win or draw<\/strong><\/td>-137 @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>Home advantage, higher seed, leg-1 lead \u2014 Pachuca only need to avoid losing by 2.<\/td><\/tr>
Enner Valencia to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>+163 @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>Valencia has 7 2025\/26 goals, 19 shots on target \u2014 and the leg-one winner.<\/td><\/tr>
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>-187 @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>Los Diablos Rojos have to chase a deficit; Paulinho is in form. Both teams scored in 2 of last 3 meetings.<\/td><\/tr>
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>-175 @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>Toluca’s chase opens the game; Pachuca averaged 2 goals per game across their last 7 at home, Toluca scored 4 in their last 2 away games.<\/td><\/tr>
Correct Score: 2-1 Pachuca<\/strong><\/td>+1100 @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>Pachuca seal the tie at home; Toluca grab one as they push for a second.<\/td><\/tr>
Paulinho to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>-105 @ bet365<\/a><\/td>\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>Paulinho has 6 Clausura goals on 17 shots on target \u2014 Toluca’s clearest threat.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: Pachuca to win or draw covers the path to the semi. Stack Valencia anytime as the cleaner secondary play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Bet365 had not priced Match Result, BTTS or Over\/Under at time of writing \u2014 check the operator for live pricing closer to kick-off. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n

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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Pachuca vs Toluca from Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a> are listed below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loading match…<\/div>\n\n\n
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Aggregate State<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pachuca lead 1-0 from leg one in Toluca. Win, draw, or one-goal defeat sees Los Tuzos through. Toluca need to win by 2+ on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first leg was scrappier than expected \u2014 Toluca’s high-pressing system never quite locked Pachuca into their own half, and Valencia’s late finish punished the misses. Toluca’s leg-two plan has to start with a faster opening 30 minutes; if it gets to half-time goalless, the maths gets ugly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tabla General \u2014 Clausura 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pachuca<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n+6<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toluca<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n+12<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Just one point and one place split these two in the Tabla General. Toluca had the better goal difference and only three defeats all phase \u2014 the best record of any non-top-three side. Pachuca were rougher around the edges but more clinical when it mattered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n