{"id":5739,"date":"2026-05-15T05:54:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T09:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=5739"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:02:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T16:02:59","slug":"match-preview-cruz-azul-vs-atlas-05-09-26-liga-mx-quarterfinals-2nd-leg","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-cruz-azul-vs-atlas-05-09-26-liga-mx-quarterfinals-2nd-leg\/","title":{"rendered":"Cruz Azul vs Atlas: Predictions, odds, picks & stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cruz Azul host Atlas at the Estadio Azteca on Saturday night with one foot already in the Liga MX semi-finals.<\/strong> La M\u00e1quina won the first leg 3-2 in Guadalajara and now have home advantage, the higher seed, and a one-goal cushion. Kick-off is Saturday, May 9, at 11:15 PM ET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The path is short. Cruz Azul advance with a win or a draw. They also go through on a one-goal defeat \u2014 the higher-seeded-advances rule keeps them in if the aggregate ends level after 90 minutes. Atlas, the lower seed, need a 2+ goal win to overturn the deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bet365 priced La M\u00e1quina at -299 to win on the night, an implied 75% chance. Atlas are out at +700, with the draw at +375. The market sees this as one-way traffic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions: Cruz Azul vs Atlas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Cruz Azul to win<\/strong><\/td>\n-299 @ bet365<\/a>
(74.9%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nHome, higher-seeded, leg-1 lead. Cruz Azul lost just 1 in 17 in the regular phase.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-188 @ bet365<\/a>
(65.3%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nLeg 1 produced five goals; Atlas have to chase, and Cruz Azul score from open play.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jos\u00e9 Paradela to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n\u2014 @ bet365
(market not priced)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nParadela<\/strong> top-scored Cruz Azul’s regular phase with 6 goals on 16 shots on target.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n-125 @ bet365<\/a>
(55.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nAtlas have to score, Arturo Gonz\u00e1lez (6 Clausura goals) has been their main man all year.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: 2-1 Cruz Azul<\/strong><\/td>\n+750 @ bet365
<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nCruz Azul win the night and the tie; Atlas grab one as they push.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gabriel Fern\u00e1ndez to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n-125 @ bet365
<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nFern\u00e1ndez<\/strong> has 5 goals and 4 assists from striker \u2014 the focal point alongside Paradela.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: Cruz Azul to win is the lead even at the short price. Stack with Paradela anytime for parlay potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Several markets not yet priced by bet365 \u2014 check the operator for live pricing closer to kick-off. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n

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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Cruz Azul vs Atlas from Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a> are listed below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loading match…<\/div>\n\n\n
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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 8.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Aggregate State<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cruz Azul lead 3-2 from leg one in Guadalajara. La M\u00e1quina advance on a win, draw, or even a one-goal defeat (higher seed advances on level aggregate). Atlas need to win by two or more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leg one was a goal-fest: open, end-to-end, and decided by Cruz Azul’s superior individual quality in the final third. Atlas threatened Camilo Vargas’s opposite number plenty but conceded three. Los Rojinegros need that defensive structure tightened up to keep this within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tabla General \u2014 Clausura 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Cruz Azul<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n+13<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Atlas<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n-2<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cruz Azul finished third in the Tabla General, Atlas sixth. The seven-point gap reflects the difference in attacking output: Cruz Azul scored 31 to Atlas’s 16. Goalkeeper Camilo Vargas kept seven clean sheets to almost rescue Atlas’s regular phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n