{"id":5737,"date":"2026-05-15T05:54:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T09:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=5737"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:02:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T16:02:57","slug":"match-preview-chivas-vs-tigres-05-09-26-liga-mx-quarterfinals-2nd-leg","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-chivas-vs-tigres-05-09-26-liga-mx-quarterfinals-2nd-leg\/","title":{"rendered":"Chivas vs Tigres: Predictions, odds, picks & stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Chivas need a comeback for the ages.<\/strong> Guadalajara host Tigres at Estadio Akron on Saturday night with the Liguilla quarter-final two goals down on aggregate, after los Felinos hammered them 3-1 at the Estadio Universitario in leg 1. Kick-off is Saturday, May 9, at 9:07 PM ET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The path back is narrow. As the higher seed, Chivas only need to overturn the two-goal deficit \u2014 a 2-0 home win takes the tie level and pushes them through on the higher-seeded-advances rule. A 3+ goal win seals it outright. Anything less, and Tigres book a place in the Liga MX<\/a> Clausura semi-finals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bookmakers like Chivas’ chances at home. Bet365 have el Reba\u00f1o Sagrado at +101 on the night, with Tigres out at +260. The angle isn’t whether Chivas can win \u2014 it’s whether they can win by enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions: Chivas vs Tigres<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n-163 @ bet365<\/a>
(62.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nChivas have to chase, Tigres carry an away-leg cushion. Both sides scored in leg 1 and the regular-season meeting.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chivas to win on the night<\/strong><\/td>\n+101 @ bet365<\/a>
(49.8%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nHome advantage and the urgency of needing two goals tilts this; Chivas finished 2nd seed for a reason.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-133 @ bet365<\/a>
<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nChivas need to chase. Leg 1 produced four goals, the season meetings averaged 2.7.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: 2-1 Chivas<\/strong><\/td>\n+800 @ bet365<\/a>
<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nWins the night for Chivas, but Tigres still go through on aggregate \u2014 books value.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Juan Brunetta to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n+175 @ bet365<\/a>
<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nBrunetta<\/strong> has 7 Clausura goals from midfield \u2014 already on the scoresheet in leg 1.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: BTTS Yes is the lead \u2014 comfortable price, both teams motivated to score. Stack with the Over 2.5 Goals and the Chivas night win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Several markets not yet priced by bet365 \u2014 check the operator for live pricing closer to kick-off. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n

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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Chivas vs Tigres from Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a> are listed below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loading match…<\/div>\n\n\n
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\n\t\t\t \n\t\t CODE: ACQUIRE05<\/span>\n\t\t
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Aggregate State<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tigres lead 3-1 on aggregate after a dominant first leg at the Estadio Universitario. To advance, Chivas need to win by two clear goals to take the tie level (the higher-seed advances rule sends them through), or by three or more to win outright. Anything less and Los Felinos book the semi-final spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tigres were the better side at home: clinical in front of goal and disciplined out of possession. The midfield triangle of Correa, Brunetta and Gorriar\u00e1n did most of the damage. Chivas need a different shape, more crosses, and a better start than the one that left them 1-0 down inside 20 minutes last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tabla General \u2014 Clausura 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Chivas<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n+16<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tigres<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n+10<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chivas finished second in the Tabla General, Tigres seventh \u2014 the seeding gap that gives Chivas the advantage on a level aggregate. Across the regular phase, Chivas were the form team; Tigres rallied at the right moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n