{"id":5733,"date":"2026-05-15T06:04:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T10:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-arsenal-vs-atletico-madrid-05-05-26-champions-league\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T11:57:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T15:57:17","slug":"match-preview-arsenal-vs-atletico-madrid-05-05-26-champions-league","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-arsenal-vs-atletico-madrid-05-05-26-champions-league\/","title":{"rendered":"Arsenal vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid: Predictions, odds, picks & stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Arsenal welcome Atl\u00e9tico Madrid to the Emirates on Tuesday night. A Champions League final is on the line, and Diego Simeone\u2019s bench has filled back up just in time.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kick-off is Tuesday, May 5 at 3:00 PM ET. The tie sits level at 1-1 from a tense draw at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Arsenal vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid prediction has shifted with the latest team news. Atl\u00e9tico rested Juli\u00e1n \u00c1lvarez, Alexander S\u00f8rloth and Giuliano Simeone at Valencia on Saturday \u2014 knocks rather than tournament-ending injuries. All three are expected to be available. Centre-back Jos\u00e9 Gim\u00e9nez also travels after eight games out. Only Pablo Barrios (hamstring) and Nicol\u00e1s Gonz\u00e1lez (thigh) are confirmed absentees. Mikel Arteta has Martin \u00d8degaard and Kai Havertz back in his matchday squad. Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino remain Arsenal\u2019s only long-term outs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arsenal know what beating Atl\u00e9tico looks like. They thumped them 4-0 at this same ground in the Champions League<\/a> league phase back in October. The bookmakers still side firmly with the hosts. bet365 have the Gunners at -175 to win on the night, with Atl\u00e9tico out at +450.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions: Arsenal vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Our Arsenal vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid prediction headlines a Best Bets card stacked around the goals markets and Arsenal\u2019s home form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Arsenal to win<\/strong><\/td>\n-175 @ bet365<\/a>
(63.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nAtl\u00e9tico’s attack is back but Arsenal still won the previous meeting 4-0 here, and the Emirates has been a hard ground to score on this season.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Viktor Gy\u00f6keres<\/strong> to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n+125 @ bet365<\/a>
(44.4%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nFive UCL goals on an xG of 5.20 \u2014 the focal point of the Arsenal attack and Atl\u00e9tico are without anchor midfielder Pablo Barrios in front of the back four.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n-106 @ bet365<\/a>
(51.5%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nWith \u00c1lvarez and S\u00f8rloth restored, Atl\u00e9tico can carry a threat into the Emirates, and Arsenal have conceded in three of their last four UCL ties.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-111 @ bet365<\/a>
(52.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nA 1-1 first leg leaves Atl\u00e9tico needing the game, not the result. They have to push, which opens space for Arsenal’s counter.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: 2-1 Arsenal<\/strong><\/td>\n+750 @ bet365<\/a>
(11.8%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nSquares with the BTTS-Yes and Over 2.5 reads \u2014 an Arsenal win with Atl\u00e9tico landing one in reply is the cleanest big-price scoreline.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Juli\u00e1n \u00c1lvarez<\/strong> to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n+300 @ bet365<\/a>
(25.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nTen Champions League goals this season and Atl\u00e9tico’s only proven match-winner \u2014 fresh after a weekend off and priced at a tournament-high level.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gabriel Martinelli<\/strong> to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n+260 @ bet365<\/a>
(27.8%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nTop-scoring Gunner in the tournament with six. The Atl\u00e9tico right side gets stretched if Simeone is short of training minutes.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: Lead with Arsenal to win. Add Gy\u00f6keres anytime as the strongest player prop. \u00c1lvarez anytime is the under-priced add now that he\u2019s fit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n

Note for US readers:<\/strong> Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi<\/a>, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The merged Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a> read sides clearly with Arsenal in our Arsenal vs Atl\u00e9tico Madrid prediction. Traders have the Gunners as the favourite on a 1-1 leg with Atl\u00e9tico needing the game. The draw is second, the visitors a distant third \u2014 even with \u00c1lvarez and S\u00f8rloth restored to the matchday squad. That broadly tracks bet365’s -175 line, and prediction markets and sportsbooks point the same way. The live widget below pulls Kalshi and Polymarket pricing into one view and updates through kick-off. Click into either venue for a position outside the sportsbook market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loading match…<\/div>\n\n\n
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\n\t\t\t \n\t\t CODE: ACQUIRE05<\/span>\n\t\t
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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 8.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Champions League Run & Aggregate State<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The tie sits 1-1 going into Tuesday after Mikel Merino\u2019s first-half opener was cancelled out at the Wanda. Arsenal had the better chances over the 90 minutes but couldn\u2019t find a second; Jan Oblak kept the visitors level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arsenal got here by topping their league phase and coming through Sporting CP in the round of 16. Atl\u00e9tico\u2019s path went through Barcelona. A 2-0 win at the Camp Nou and a 2-1 defeat at home saw the Spanish side advance on aggregate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday is straight 90 minutes plus extra-time and penalties if level on aggregate at the final whistle. No away-goals tiebreak. Score one and Arsenal hold all the cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n