{"id":5615,"date":"2026-05-15T06:05:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T10:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=5615"},"modified":"2026-06-03T21:17:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T01:17:00","slug":"match-preview-leeds-vs-burnley-01-05-26-premier-league","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/match-preview-leeds-vs-burnley-01-05-26-premier-league\/","title":{"rendered":"Leeds vs Burnley: Predictions, odds, picks & stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Leeds welcome already-relegated Burnley to Elland Road on Friday night with the hosts unbeaten in five and looking to keep their late-season run going against a Clarets side that has lost four on the bounce.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Leeds vs Burnley prediction has the home side winning, Calvert-Lewin to score and value on Over 2.5 against the league’s leakiest defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market reflects the gap between them; the form lines underline it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kick-off is 8:00 PM local (3:00 PM ET) on Friday, May 1. Leeds are 15th in the Premier League<\/a> on 40 points, six clear of the drop zone with four games to play and effectively safe. Burnley are 19th on 20 points, mathematically relegated already, and have not won a Premier League match since beating Crystal Palace 3-2 at Selhurst Park on 11 February. The Clarets did the double over Leeds last time these sides met, winning 2-0 at Turf Moor in October \u2014 the home side will be looking to settle that score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

bet365 make Leeds heavy home favourites at -239 with Burnley out at +650. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s eleven Premier League goals make him the cleanest anytime-goalscorer pick on the card at -111.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Leeds to win<\/strong><\/td>\n-239 @ bet365<\/a>
(70.5%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nUnbeaten in five at home and on the road, hosting a side already down and on a four-match losing run. Form, venue and stakes all line up.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dominic Calvert-Lewin anytime goalscorer<\/strong><\/td>\n-111 @ bet365<\/a>
(52.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nEleven league goals, 30 shots on target and an xG of 11.38 from 31 matches. Leeds’ top scorer against the league’s leakiest defence.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-150 @ bet365<\/a>
(60.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nBurnley have shipped 68 goals (most in the league) and conceded three or more in four of their last six. Leeds put three past Wolves a fortnight ago.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both teams to score \u2014 Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n-106 @ bet365<\/a>
(51.4%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nBurnley have scored in three of their last five even on the losing run; Leeds have conceded in four of their last five at Elland Road.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: 2-1 Leeds<\/strong><\/td>\n+850 @ bet365<\/a>
(10.5%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nLeeds have produced multi-goal home wins lately (3-0 over Wolves, 2-1 at Old Trafford) while Burnley have conceded three or more in four of their last six. A two-goal cushion with a late Burnley consolation fits the form lines.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: Leeds to win with Calvert-Lewin anytime goalscorer is the clean parlay at bet365<\/a>; Over 2.5 goals stands up as the value single.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n

Note for US readers:<\/strong> Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi<\/a>, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The block below pulls live Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a> pricing on Leeds vs Burnley alongside the implied win-probability split. Holding those crowd-funded numbers next to the bet365 lines higher up the page is a quick way to read the room: when prediction-market pricing diverges from the sportsbook, the gap is where the sharper read usually sits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loading match…<\/div>\n\n\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Kalshi\"<\/a>\t\t\t\t
\n \n Kalshi<\/a> <\/span>\n \n Trade $10, Get $10 Bonus<\/a> <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Trade $10, Get $10 Bonus<\/a> <\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n\t\t\t\tTrade Markets<\/a>
\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

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\n Our Score<\/span>\n 8.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at\u00a0ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

Season Form & Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Leeds sit 15th, six points clear of the drop zone and effectively safe with four to play; Burnley are 19th and already down, alongside Wolves. The full Premier League standings<\/a> show the gap between the comfortable mid-table sides and the two clubs already planning for next season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Leeds United<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n-7<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Burnley<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n68<\/td>\n-34<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n