{"id":15534,"date":"2026-06-29T18:07:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T22:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=15534"},"modified":"2026-06-29T21:03:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T01:03:55","slug":"ousmane-dembele-golden-boot-odds","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/ousmane-dembele-golden-boot-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Ousmane Dembele Golden Boot Odds: France Star’s World Cup 2026 Top Scorer Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ousmane Dembele’s Golden Boot odds run ahead of the Squawka Signal, and his underlying numbers explain why. Four goals into France’s World Cup<\/a>, but from an expected-goals figure of just 0.8, our model puts Dembele at a 4.3% chance of finishing as the tournament’s top scorer. That is our own number, and it sits under his price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set it against the market and the lean is clear. Polymarket has him at 6.2%, Kalshi at 7.5%, both above our read. In plain terms, the market is pricing four goals at face value, while the Signal sees how those goals were scored and expects them to slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n