{"id":15532,"date":"2026-06-29T18:06:56","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T22:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=15532"},"modified":"2026-06-29T21:03:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T01:03:45","slug":"erling-haaland-golden-boot-odds","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/erling-haaland-golden-boot-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Erling Haaland Golden Boot Odds: Norway Star’s World Cup 2026 Top Scorer Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Erling Haaland’s Golden Boot odds sit right on top of the Squawka Signal, even as the two prediction markets pull in opposite directions. Four goals into Norway’s World Cup<\/a>, from an expected-goals figure of 3.6, our model puts Haaland at a 5.2% chance of finishing as the tournament’s top scorer. That is our own number, before the market gets a vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set it against the prices and the markets split. Kalshi has him at 4.0%, a shade under our read, while Polymarket sits higher at 6.5%. The blended price lands almost exactly on our 5.2%, which is why the Signal calls him fair, but the two books clearly disagree with each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n