{"id":15530,"date":"2026-06-29T18:06:40","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T22:06:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=15530"},"modified":"2026-06-29T20:03:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T00:03:06","slug":"kylian-mbappe-golden-boot-odds","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/kylian-mbappe-golden-boot-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Kylian Mbappe Golden Boot Odds: France Star’s World Cup 2026 Top Scorer Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kylian Mbappe’s Golden Boot odds and the Squawka Signal are not telling the same story. Four goals into France’s World Cup<\/a>, from an expected-goals figure of 1.9, our model puts Mbappe at a 7.7% chance of finishing as the tournament’s top scorer. That is our own number, and it sits a long way under his price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set it against the market and the gap jumps out. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have him at 22.5%, almost three times our read. In plain terms, the market backs Mbappe far harder than the math does, which is why the Signal flags him as the most overpriced name on the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n