{"id":15528,"date":"2026-06-29T18:04:48","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T22:04:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=15528"},"modified":"2026-06-29T20:02:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T00:02:58","slug":"lionel-messi-golden-boot-odds","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/lionel-messi-golden-boot-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Lionel Messi Golden Boot Odds: Argentina Star’s World Cup 2026 Top Scorer Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lionel Messi’s Golden Boot odds barely tell the half of it. Six goals into Argentina’s World Cup<\/a>, from an expected-goals figure of 2.8 across roughly three and a half games of work, our model puts Messi at a 65.3% chance of finishing as the tournament’s top scorer. That is a number that towers over the field, and it is our own read before the market gets a vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set it against the prices and the gap is striking. Polymarket has him at 51.8%, Kalshi at 54.5%, both a long way under our read. In plain terms, the market likes Messi a lot, and the Signal likes him even more. He is the one player on the board the model marks as a clear value play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n