{"id":15366,"date":"2026-06-29T12:20:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T16:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=outright_markets&p=15366"},"modified":"2026-06-29T13:31:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:31:26","slug":"vinicius-jr-golden-boot-odds","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/vinicius-jr-golden-boot-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Vinicius Junior Golden Boot Odds: Brazil Star’s World Cup 2026 Top Scorer Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Vinicius Junior’s Golden Boot odds say one thing; the Squawka Signal says something a little more interesting. Four goals into Brazil’s World Cup<\/a>, with an expected-goals figure of 2.4 from a shade over two games of work, our model lands Vinicius at a 6.2% chance of finishing as the tournament’s top scorer. That is our own number, before the market gets a vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set it against the prices and the gap is small but it leans his way. Kalshi has him at 5.5%, Polymarket at 6.0%, both sitting just under our read. In plain terms, the market likes Vinicius a touch less than the math does. Here is what is driving the number, and why Brazil’s route, not his finishing, is the thing keeping a lid on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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