{"id":14129,"date":"2026-06-23T13:48:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T17:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=14129"},"modified":"2026-06-23T14:03:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T18:03:13","slug":"match-preview-turkey-vs-usa-06-25-26-world-cup-2026","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/match-preview-turkey-vs-usa-06-25-26-world-cup-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey vs USMNT: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The World Cup 2026<\/a> Group D finale lands at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, June 25 at 10:00 PM ET \/ 9:00 PM CT \/ 7:00 PM PT, with hosts the United States<\/a> already through and Turkey<\/a> already out.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Turkey vs United States prediction is shaped by the standings as much as the form. Mauricio Pochettino’s side top the group on six points with a +5 goal difference after a 4-1 dismantling of Paraguay in Inglewood and a 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle. Turkey have lost both matches without scoring \u2014 2-0 to Australia in Vancouver, then 1-0 at home in California to Paraguay \u2014 and head into the final group game with nothing on the table beyond pride and a finishing position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

bet365<\/a> prices the United States at -111, Turkey at +250, and the draw at +310, with Over 2.5 goals at +100. The market is reading this as a heavy USA tilt, but the price is shorter than you might expect for an eliminated side facing a host with top spot already banked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market consensus:<\/strong> Kalshi traders price Turkey at 27%<\/strong>, the draw at 22%<\/strong>, and USA at 52%<\/strong>. Full breakdown below<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey vs USMNT: Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The angle here is straightforward: USA are clear favorites, but Pochettino has every reason to rotate, which keeps the Turkey side alive on a draw line and pushes value into the goalscorer and over markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
United States to Win<\/strong><\/td>\n-111 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(52.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nUSA have scored six and conceded one across two games, and Turkey haven’t put a goal on the board yet at this tournament. Even a rotated XI carries the better forward line on the night.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 Goals<\/strong><\/td>\n+100 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(50.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nUSA are averaging three goals a game in this group. Turkey have leaked five across two and now need to chase to finish with anything off the floor.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Folarin Balogun<\/span> Anytime Goalscorer<\/strong><\/td>\n+162 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(38.2%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nBalogun already has two goals in 161 minutes at the tournament, with an xG of 0.88 and three shots on target. The lead striker for the hosts against a back line still searching for a clean sheet.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: Turkey 1-3 United States<\/strong><\/td>\n+2800 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(3.4%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nUSA control with the front line, Turkey grab a consolation chasing the game. Lines up with the Over 2.5 and BTTS legs, speculative price for a multi.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n-150 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(60.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThe market is already short on BTTS Yes for a reason \u2014 Turkey are out and have to push, USA have shipped a goal to Paraguay already. An open second half tilts this way.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: lean on Balogun as the anchor, add Over 2.5 as a natural parlay leg, and let the BTTS-Yes price ride alongside if you want a third leg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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