{"id":14097,"date":"2026-06-23T13:45:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T17:45:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/?post_type=news&p=14097"},"modified":"2026-06-23T14:03:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T18:03:07","slug":"match-preview-uruguay-vs-spain-06-26-26-world-cup-2026","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us\/news\/world-cup\/match-preview-uruguay-vs-spain-06-26-26-world-cup-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Uruguay vs Spain: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Spain’s quest to top Group H reaches its climax on Friday, June 26 at 8:00 PM ET \/ 7:00 PM CT \/ 5:00 PM PT, when Luis de la Fuente’s side meet Uruguay at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara in the group finale.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spain sit top of Group H with four points and a +4 goal difference after dispatching Saudi Arabia and grinding past Cape Verde. Uruguay are second on two points, having drawn both their matches and now needing at least a point to guarantee a place in the round of 32. A Spanish win, however, would lock in top spot and a kinder round-of-32 draw \u2014 making this a fixture where both sides have something to play for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One material absence shapes the Spain camp: midfielder Pedri picked up his second yellow of the group stage in matchday two and is suspended for this fixture, forcing Luis de la Fuente to reshape his midfield around Rodri and Fabi\u00e1n Ruiz. For Uruguay, Marcelo Bielsa is expected to keep faith with the Valverde-Bentancur-Ugarte spine that has carried them through two competitive draws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

bet365<\/a> price Spain at -209 to win, with the draw at +320 and Uruguay at +600 \u2014 a market reading that reflects both Spain’s tournament-favorite status on the World Cup 2026 outright odds<\/a> board and the difficulty of breaking down a disciplined Bielsa side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market consensus:<\/strong> Kalshi traders price Uruguay at 13%<\/strong>, the draw at 22%<\/strong>, and Spain at 66%<\/strong>. Full breakdown below<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uruguay vs Spain: Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The slate leans into Spain’s superior chance creation, balanced against Uruguay’s defensive structure under Bielsa. Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal are the two priced routes to goal that stand out at value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Sportsbook<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Spain to Win<\/strong><\/td>\n-209 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(67.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nSpain top the group on four points and have outscored opponents 5-1 across their two matches. Uruguay have managed only one goal in 180 minutes of group play.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mikel Oyarzabal<\/strong> to score anytime<\/td>\n+120 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(45.5%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nOyarzabal has been Spain’s most consistent finisher across the qualifying cycle and is the shortest-priced scorer in the bet365 book, ahead of Lamine Yamal and Ferran Torres.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Over 2.5 Goals<\/strong><\/td>\n-111 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(52.6%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nSpain are averaging 2.5 goals per match in the group stage. Uruguay’s two draws (1-1 and 0-0) suggest a tight low-block, but Spain’s xG threat is the higher of the two by a clear margin.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Correct Score: Spain 2-1<\/strong><\/td>\n+800 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(11.1%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nReflects the Spain-to-win + Over 2.5 + BTTS combination in one line. Uruguay’s set-piece threat through Araujo and Gim\u00e9nez keeps them in the scoreline.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score: Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n+100 @ bet365<\/strong><\/a>
(50.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nUruguay carry genuine aerial threat from corners through Ronald Araujo and Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Gim\u00e9nez. Spain’s high defensive line, even in a comfortable win against Saudi Arabia, has conceded chances.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Our approach: Anchor on Spain to win at -209, layer Oyarzabal anytime at plus money, and treat the 2-1 correct score as the natural shape if BTTS lands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n\t\t\t \n\t\t
\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"bet365<\/a>\t\t\t\t
\n \n Bet365<\/a> <\/span>\n \n First Bet Safety Net – Get Up To $1,000 in Bonus Bets<\/a> <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n First Bet Safety Net – Get Up To $1,000 in Bonus Bets<\/a> <\/span>\n <\/div>\n
\n\t\t\t\tGet Offer<\/a>
\n Our Score<\/span>\n 9.5<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n Read our review<\/span>\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t

Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n\n