{"id":192,"date":"2026-06-18T13:05:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T17:05:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/?post_type=news&#038;p=192"},"modified":"2026-06-18T13:05:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T17:05:07","slug":"predicciones-mundial-2026","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/news\/mundial-2026\/predicciones-mundial-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026: Polymarket, Kalshi y Mercados de Predicci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style>\n.sq-wc26 {\n  --sq-forest-deep: #002a23;\n  --sq-forest:      #003d33;\n  --sq-green:       #00c752;\n  --sq-lime:        #b0eb00;\n  --sq-gut:         24px;\n  --sq-max:         1240px;\n  --sq-display:     \"Oswald\", \"Helvetica Neue\", Arial, sans-serif;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs {\n  position: sticky; top: 0; z-index: 40;\n  background: var(--sq-forest-deep);\n  border-bottom: 3px solid var(--sq-green);\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__inner {\n  display: flex; align-items: center;\n  max-width: var(--sq-max); margin: 0 auto;\n  padding: 0 var(--sq-gut); overflow-x: auto; scrollbar-width: none;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__inner::-webkit-scrollbar { display: none; }\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__brand {\n  display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px;\n  padding: 16px 16px 14px 0; margin-right: 8px;\n  font-family: var(--sq-display); font-weight: 700;\n  font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: .2em; text-transform: uppercase;\n  color: var(--sq-lime); border-right: 1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.12);\n  flex-shrink: 0; white-space: nowrap;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__brand::before {\n  content: \"\"; width: 7px; height: 7px; border-radius: 50%;\n  background: var(--sq-lime); box-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(176,235,0,.8); flex-shrink: 0;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a {\n  flex: 0 0 auto; padding: 18px 18px 16px;\n  font-family: var(--sq-display); font-weight: 600;\n  font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: .12em; text-transform: uppercase;\n  color: rgba(255,255,255,.65); border-bottom: 3px solid transparent;\n  text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;\n  transition: color .15s, border-color .15s, background .15s; margin-bottom: -3px;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a:hover { color: #fff; background: rgba(255,255,255,.04); }\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a.is-active { color: #fff; border-bottom-color: var(--sq-lime); background: rgba(255,255,255,.04); }\n@media (max-width: 720px) {\n  .sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a { padding: 15px 14px 13px; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: .08em; }\n  .sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__brand { font-size: 11px; padding-right: 12px; }\n}\n@media (max-width: 480px) {\n  .sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a { padding: 13px 11px 11px; font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: .06em; }\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"sq-wc26\">\n  <nav class=\"sq-tabs\" aria-label=\"Mundial 2026 navegaci\u00f3n\">\n    <div class=\"sq-tabs__inner\">\n      <span class=\"sq-tabs__brand\">M26<\/span>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/mundial-2026\/\">Hub<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/calendario-mundial-2026\/\">Calendario<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/posiciones-mundial-2026\/\">Posiciones<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/outright-markets\/apuestas-mundial-2026\/\">Momios<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/news\/predicciones-mundial-2026\/\" class=\"is-active\">Predicciones<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/news\/final-copa-del-mundo-2026\/\">La Final<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La jornada 2 del Mundial 2026 ya tiene su segundo gran resultado: <strong>Noruega 4-1 Irak<\/strong> en el Gillette Stadium, sumando a Noruega seis puntos y +3 de diferencia de gol en la cima del Grupo I, tras el Francia 3-1 Senegal de m&aacute;s temprano. <strong>Los mercados de predicci&oacute;n reaccionaron en ambos casos<\/strong>: Francia se separa a&uacute;n m&aacute;s de Espa&ntilde;a en Polymarket y Kalshi, y Noruega acorta en los mercados de pase a octavos y ganador de grupo. Inglaterra firme como tercera fuerza alrededor del 10%. Dieciocho de los 48 partidos de fase de grupos ya est&aacute;n disputados. El patr&oacute;n dominante de la jornada 1 sigue vigente &mdash; Espa&ntilde;a (0-0 con Cabo Verde), B&eacute;lgica (1-1 con Egipto) y Uruguay (1-1 con Arabia Saudita) se alargaron en los momios de campe&oacute;n &mdash; y Brasil empat&oacute; 1-1 con Marruecos. Argentina vs Argelia arranca el Grupo J durante la madrugada; m&aacute;s tarde llegan Austria vs Jordania, Portugal vs Congo DR, Inglaterra vs Croacia, Ghana vs Panam&aacute; y Uzbekist&aacute;n vs Colombia para cerrar la jornada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u00fan as\u00ed, en esta p\u00e1gina tienes el desglose actualizado de las predicciones del Mundial 2026 en los dos mercados de predicci\u00f3n m\u00e1s relevantes en Estados Unidos: <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> (mercado descentralizado, basado en blockchain) y <strong>Kalshi<\/strong> (mercado regulado por la CFTC). Ambos est\u00e1n disponibles para usuarios estadounidenses con condiciones espec\u00edficas en cada caso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Nota para usuarios en EE.UU.:<\/strong> Polymarket ya est\u00e1 en vivo para operar con dinero real en EE.UU. tras su adquisici\u00f3n de QCX en 2025, un exchange regulado por la CFTC, disponible en la mayor\u00eda de los estados con excepci\u00f3n de Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada y Ohio. Los nuevos usuarios pueden reclamar un bono del 100% hasta $50 con el c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05. Los precios mostrados son cifras reales de la plataforma Polymarket. <a href=\"\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/kalshi\/\">Kalshi<\/a>, tambi\u00e9n regulada por la CFTC, opera en los 50 estados.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"que-son-mercados\">Qu\u00e9 son los mercados de predicci\u00f3n<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Por ello, un <strong>mercado de predicci\u00f3n<\/strong> es una plataforma donde los usuarios compran y venden contratos sobre el resultado de un evento futuro. Cada contrato paga una cantidad fija (t\u00edpicamente USD 1) si el resultado se cumple, y nada si no. El precio del contrato \u2014 entre 0 y 1 USD \u2014 se interpreta como la <strong>probabilidad impl\u00edcita<\/strong> que el mercado le asigna al resultado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Por ejemplo: si un contrato &#8220;Espa\u00f1a gana el Mundial 2026&#8221; se vende a USD 0.18, eso implica que el mercado le asigna a Espa\u00f1a una probabilidad de aproximadamente 18% de ganar el torneo. La diferencia frente a una casa de apuestas tradicional es que ese precio surge del trading entre usuarios, no de las decisiones de un operador.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"polymarket\">Polymarket: predicciones del Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Polymarket<\/strong> es el mayor mercado de predicci\u00f3n del mundo por volumen. Funciona en blockchain (USDC en la red Polygon) y opera de forma descentralizada. Para los usuarios en Estados Unidos, el acceso depende del estado y de las condiciones legales locales \u2014 Polymarket ha tenido restricciones de acceso desde EE.UU. en momentos espec\u00edficos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En resumen, el mercado del Mundial 2026 en Polymarket lleva activo desde finales de 2024 con volumen importante. Los cinco favoritos concentran los precios m\u00e1s altos: Espa\u00f1a (~18%), Francia (~14%), Argentina (~13%), Inglaterra (~11%) y Brasil (~10%). Las probabilidades impl\u00edcitas se mueven en l\u00ednea con los momios tradicionales pero reaccionan con mayor rapidez a las noticias (lesiones, sorteo, partidos amistosos).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para m\u00e1s detalles sobre c\u00f3mo funciona Polymarket y c\u00f3mo registrarte, consulta nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/polymarket-review\/\">rese\u00f1a completa de Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-prediction-markets-futures pm-futures-root\" data-sport=\"Soccer\" data-league=\"FIFA World Cup\" data-event-id=\"polymarket_30615\" data-market-types=\"[]\" data-provider-filter=\"polymarket\" data-selected-market=\"poly-futures-558934\">Loading futures&#8230;<\/div>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"147\"\n            data-offer-id=\"657\"\n    >\n\t\t            <span class=\"sq-toplist__label\">C\u00d3DIGO: ACQUIRE05<\/span>\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#ffffff\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18142018\/polymarket-1.svg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a>\t\t\t\t                <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer-box\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__bookmaker\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"brand_name\">Polymarket<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-tablet-visible\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">100% hasta $50 con el c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-mobile-visible\">\n                    <a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">100% hasta $50 con el c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05<\/a>                <\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"cta\" class=\"sq-btn sq-btn--secondary sq-btn--full\">\u00a1OPERA AHORA!<\/a>                <div class=\"sq-rating\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__text\">Our Score<\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__value\">8.5<\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/polymarket\/\" class=\"sq-review-link\">\n                    <span>Read our review<\/span>\n                <\/a>\n            <\/div>\n\t\t\t        <\/div>\n\t\t            <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\"><p>Debes tener al menos 18 a\u00f1os y contar con una direcci\u00f3n residencial legal en EE. UU. dentro del estado correspondiente, D.C. o territorios de EE. UU. No disponible en AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV ni OH. \u00bfProblemas con el juego? Llama o env\u00eda un mensaje al 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat disponible en <a href=\"https:\/\/na0messaging.icarol.com\/ConsumerRegistration.aspx?org=65800&amp;pid=57&amp;cc=en-US&amp;RIF1=651580\">ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"kalshi\">Kalshi: predicciones del Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kalshi<\/strong> es el primer mercado de predicci\u00f3n <strong>regulado por la CFTC<\/strong> (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, el regulador estadounidense de derivados) y la \u00fanica plataforma de mercados de predicci\u00f3n donde los usuarios en EE.UU. pueden operar con dinero real hoy mismo, en los 50 estados, con d\u00f3lares estadounidenses. Polymarket, aunque tiene la v\u00eda regulatoria federal tras su adquisici\u00f3n de QCX, ya admite trading con dinero real para cuentas estadounidenses en la mayor\u00eda de los estados (excepto AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV y OH), con un bono del 100% hasta $50 (c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05) para nuevos usuarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Por tanto, el mercado del Mundial 2026 en Kalshi est\u00e1 activo y muestra probabilidades muy similares a Polymarket: Espa\u00f1a como favorita absoluta seguida del bloque de cuatro favoritas. Como Kalshi opera bajo regulaci\u00f3n estadounidense, el spread (diferencia entre comprar y vender) suele ser ligeramente mayor que en Polymarket, pero la fricci\u00f3n de acceso es muy menor para usuarios estadounidenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para m\u00e1s detalles sobre Kalshi, consulta nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/kalshi\/\">rese\u00f1a completa de Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<!--KALSHI_192_WIDGET_START-->\n\n<div class=\"sq-markets\" id=\"prediction-markets\">\n  <style>\n    .sq-markets { --bg:#03261a; --panel:#0a2c1f; --line:#2a5841; --txt:#f4f8f1;\n      --mut:#88a89a; --accent:#a8e039;\n      max-width:640px; margin:28px auto; background:var(--panel);\n      border:1px solid var(--line); border-radius:18px; overflow:hidden;\n      box-shadow:0 24px 60px rgba(0,0,0,.45);\n      font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n      color:var(--txt); }\n    .sq-markets *, .sq-markets *::before, .sq-markets *::after { box-sizing:border-box; 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}\n    .sq-markets__back:hover { transform:translateY(-1px); filter:brightness(1.06); }\n    .sq-markets__cta { margin:6px 16px 18px; background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29,#08251a);\n      border:1px solid var(--accent); border-radius:14px; padding:16px 18px;\n      display:flex; align-items:center; gap:14px; }\n    .sq-markets__cta-txt { flex:1; }\n    .sq-markets__cta-h { font-weight:800; font-size:15px; color:#fff; }\n    .sq-markets__cta-p { font-size:12.5px; color:var(--mut); margin-top:2px; }\n    .sq-markets__cta-p b { color:#0a2c1f; background:var(--accent); padding:2px 7px;\n      border-radius:5px; letter-spacing:.5px; font-weight:900; }\n    .sq-markets__cta a { display:inline-flex; align-items:center; gap:9px;\n      background:var(--accent); color:#0a2c1f !important; font-weight:900; font-size:13.5px;\n      padding:11px 16px; border-radius:10px; text-decoration:none !important;\n      white-space:nowrap; }\n    .sq-markets__cta a img { height:16px; width:auto; filter:brightness(0); }\n    .sq-markets__foot { font-size:10.5px; color:var(--mut); text-align:center;\n      padding:0 22px 18px; line-height:1.5; }\n    @media (max-width:600px) {\n      .sq-markets__row { flex-wrap:wrap; }\n      .sq-markets__back { margin-left:auto; }\n    }\n  <\/style>\n\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__top\">\n    <div class=\"sq-markets__brand\"><svg width=\"28\" height=\"28\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 28\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" style=\"margin-right:9px;flex-shrink:0\"><path d=\"M17.024 10.977H22.4C22.4 8.006 19.994 5.6 17.024 5.6H11.648C11.648 8.571 14.054 10.977 17.024 10.977Z\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M10.976 16.353V5.6C8.006 5.6 5.6 8.006 5.6 10.977C5.6 13.947 8.006 16.353 10.976 16.353Z\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M17.023 11.649V22.401C19.993 22.401 22.399 19.996 22.399 17.025C22.399 14.055 19.993 11.649 17.023 11.649Z\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M10.976 17.024H5.6C5.6 19.995 8.006 22.4 10.976 22.4H16.352C16.352 19.43 13.946 17.024 10.976 17.024Z\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><\/svg>Squawka <span class=\"sq-markets__brand-tag\">Mercados<\/span><\/div>\n    <div class=\"sq-markets__powered\">momios de<br><b>Kalshi<\/b><\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <h2 class=\"sq-markets__h1\">\u00bfQui\u00e9n gana el Mundial 2026?<\/h2>\n  <p class=\"sq-markets__sub\">Probabilidad impl\u00edcita en vivo de 48 mercados por selecci\u00f3n &middot; 18 Jun 2026, 17:05 UTC<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__stats\">\n    <div class=\"sq-markets__stat\"><div class=\"sq-markets__stat-k\">Volumen total<\/div><div class=\"sq-markets__stat-v\">364.0M <small>contratos<\/small><\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"sq-markets__stat\"><div class=\"sq-markets__stat-k\">Volumen 24h<\/div><div class=\"sq-markets__stat-v\">27.7M<\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"sq-markets__stat\"><div class=\"sq-markets__stat-k\">Inter\u00e9s abierto<\/div><div class=\"sq-markets__stat-v\">315.3M<\/div><\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__secthead\"><h3 class=\"sq-markets__secthead-h\">Movimiento &middot; \u00faltimos 90 d\u00edas<\/h3><\/div>\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__chartwrap\"><canvas id=\"sq-markets-mv\"><\/canvas><\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__secthead\"><h3 class=\"sq-markets__secthead-h\">Top 5 favoritos ahora<\/h3><\/div>\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__list\">\n        <div class=\"sq-markets__row\">\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__rank\">1<\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__team\">\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tname\">France<\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tmeta\">16.9M operados <span class=\"sq-markets__delta up\">&#9650; 0.7<small>pts 30d<\/small><\/span><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__prob\">18.5%<\/div>\n          <a class=\"sq-markets__back\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\"\n             href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\">Operar en Kalshi &rarr;<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"sq-markets__row\">\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__rank\">2<\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__team\">\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tname\">Spain<\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tmeta\">13.0M operados <span class=\"sq-markets__delta down\">&#9660; 3.1<small>pts 30d<\/small><\/span><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__prob\">13.3%<\/div>\n          <a class=\"sq-markets__back\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\"\n             href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\">Operar en Kalshi &rarr;<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"sq-markets__row\">\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__rank\">3<\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__team\">\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tname\">England<\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tmeta\">11.0M operados <span class=\"sq-markets__delta up\">&#9650; 1.9<small>pts 30d<\/small><\/span><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__prob\">13.0%<\/div>\n          <a class=\"sq-markets__back\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\"\n             href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\">Operar en Kalshi &rarr;<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"sq-markets__row\">\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__rank\">4<\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__team\">\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tname\">Argentina<\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tmeta\">11.8M operados <span class=\"sq-markets__delta up\">&#9650; 1.1<small>pts 30d<\/small><\/span><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__prob\">11.0%<\/div>\n          <a class=\"sq-markets__back\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\"\n             href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\">Operar en Kalshi &rarr;<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"sq-markets__row\">\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__rank\">5<\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__team\">\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tname\">Portugal<\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-markets__tmeta\">20.3M operados <span class=\"sq-markets__delta down\">&#9660; 0.2<small>pts 30d<\/small><\/span><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"sq-markets__prob\">8.4%<\/div>\n          <a class=\"sq-markets__back\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\"\n             href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\">Operar en Kalshi &rarr;<\/a>\n        <\/div><\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__cta\">\n    <div class=\"sq-markets__cta-txt\">\n      <div class=\"sq-markets__cta-h\">Opera el Mundial en Kalshi<\/div>\n      <div class=\"sq-markets__cta-p\">Empieza ya &mdash; <b>USA EL C\u00d3DIGO SQUAWKA<\/b><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\">\n      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/13\/2026\/04\/13053924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled.png\" alt=\"Kalshi\" width=\"56\" height=\"14\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n      Reclamar oferta &rarr;\n    <\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"sq-markets__foot\">\n    Probabilidades derivadas de precios en vivo de Kalshi (lado Yes, mid\/last). Los mercados se mueven &mdash; no es asesor\u00eda financiera. 21+. Aplican t\u00e9rminos y condiciones.\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<script src=\"https:\/\/cdn.jsdelivr.net\/npm\/chart.js@4.4.1\/dist\/chart.umd.min.js\"><\/script>\n<script>\n(function() {\n  if (!window.Chart) { setTimeout(arguments.callee, 100); return; }\n  var canvas = document.getElementById('sq-markets-mv');\n  if (!canvas || canvas.dataset.sqInit) return;\n  canvas.dataset.sqInit = '1';\n  new Chart(canvas, {\n    type:'line',\n    data:{ labels: [\"Mar 21\", \"Mar 22\", \"Mar 23\", \"Mar 24\", \"Mar 25\", \"Mar 26\", \"Mar 27\", \"Mar 28\", \"Mar 29\", \"Mar 30\", \"Mar 31\", \"Apr 01\", \"Apr 02\", \"Apr 03\", \"Apr 04\", \"Apr 05\", \"Apr 06\", \"Apr 07\", \"Apr 08\", \"Apr 09\", \"Apr 10\", \"Apr 11\", \"Apr 12\", \"Apr 13\", \"Apr 14\", \"Apr 15\", \"Apr 16\", \"Apr 17\", \"Apr 18\", \"Apr 19\", \"Apr 20\", \"Apr 21\", \"Apr 22\", \"Apr 23\", \"Apr 24\", \"Apr 25\", \"Apr 26\", \"Apr 27\", \"Apr 28\", \"Apr 29\", \"Apr 30\", \"May 01\", \"May 02\", \"May 03\", \"May 04\", \"May 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': ' + c.parsed.y + '%'; } } }\n      },\n      scales:{\n        x:{ ticks:{ color:'#88a89a', maxTicksLimit:6, font:{size:10} },\n             grid:{ color:'rgba(255,255,255,.04)' } },\n        y:{ ticks:{ color:'#88a89a', callback:function(v){ return v + '%'; }, font:{size:10} },\n             grid:{ color:'rgba(255,255,255,.06)' } }\n      }\n    }\n  });\n})();\n<\/script>\n\n<!--KALSHI_192_WIDGET_END-->\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"141\"\n            data-offer-id=\"11\"\n    >\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Bet365\"data-placement=\"toplist-offers\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" 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Score<\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__value\">9.5<\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/bet365\/\" class=\"sq-review-link\">\n                    <span>Read our review<\/span>\n                <\/a>\n            <\/div>\n\t\t\t        <\/div>\n\t\t            <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\"><p>Dep\u00f3sito requerido. Pagado en Bonus Bets. La apuesta de Bonus Bets queda excluida del pago. Solo clientes nuevos. Aplican T&amp;Cs, l\u00edmites de tiempo y exclusiones.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"146\"\n            data-offer-id=\"656\"\n    >\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#ffffff\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"77\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-300x77.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-300x77.png 300w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-1024x263.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-768x197.png 768w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-1536x394.png 1536w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-2048x526.png 2048w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-400x103.png 400w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-600x154.png 600w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-234x60.png 234w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-150x38.png 150w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-288x74.png 288w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\t\t\t\t                <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer-box\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__bookmaker\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"brand_name\">Kalshi<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-tablet-visible\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Opera $10, recibe $10 de bono<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-mobile-visible\">\n                    <a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Opera $10, recibe $10 de bono<\/a>                <\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"cta\" class=\"sq-btn sq-btn--secondary sq-btn--full\">Operar mercados<\/a>                <div class=\"sq-rating\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__text\">Our Score<\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__value\">9.5<\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/kalshi\/\" class=\"sq-review-link\">\n                    <span>Read our review<\/span>\n                <\/a>\n            <\/div>\n\t\t\t        <\/div>\n\t\t            <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\"><p>Solo mayores de 21 a\u00f1os. \u00bfProblemas con el juego? Llama o env\u00eda un mensaje al 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat disponible en ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"diferencias\">Mercados de predicci\u00f3n vs. casas de apuestas: \u00bfen qu\u00e9 se diferencian?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Origen del precio:<\/strong> en una casa de apuestas, el operador fija los momios y absorbe el riesgo. En un mercado de predicci\u00f3n, los precios surgen del trading entre usuarios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Margen del operador:<\/strong> las casas de apuestas tienen un margen integrado en los momios (t\u00edpicamente 5\u201310% en mercados l\u00edquidos). Los mercados de predicci\u00f3n cobran comisiones expl\u00edcitas por trade y suelen tener menor margen total.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Liquidez:<\/strong> las casas de apuestas tienen liquidez garantizada por el operador. Los mercados de predicci\u00f3n dependen de que haya contraparte para cada trade \u2014 en mercados grandes esto rara vez es un problema, pero en mercados peque\u00f1os s\u00ed puede serlo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trading vs. apuesta:<\/strong> en un mercado de predicci\u00f3n puedes vender tu posici\u00f3n antes del evento, capturando ganancias o limitando p\u00e9rdidas. En una casa de apuestas tradicional, una vez colocada la apuesta queda fija (salvo cash-out parcial en algunos operadores).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regulaci\u00f3n:<\/strong> Kalshi est\u00e1 regulado por la CFTC en EE.UU. Polymarket opera de forma descentralizada (regulaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s limitada). Las casas de apuestas estadounidenses est\u00e1n reguladas estado por estado por las comisiones de juego correspondientes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"comparativa\">Comparativa: mercados de predicci\u00f3n vs. casas de apuestas para el Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Selecci\u00f3n<\/th><th>Polymarket<\/th><th>Kalshi<\/th><th>Casas de apuestas (impl\u00edcita)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Espa\u00f1a<\/td><td>~18%<\/td><td>~18%<\/td><td>~17\u201318%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Francia<\/td><td>~14%<\/td><td>~14%<\/td><td>~14\u201315%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Argentina<\/td><td>~13%<\/td><td>~13%<\/td><td>~12\u201313%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inglaterra<\/td><td>~11%<\/td><td>~11%<\/td><td>~11\u201312%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brasil<\/td><td>~10%<\/td><td>~10%<\/td><td>~10\u201311%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Probabilidades impl\u00edcitas aproximadas. Los precios cambian con el mercado.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, la consistencia entre las tres fuentes refleja un mercado eficiente: ni Polymarket ni Kalshi ni los operadores tradicionales tienen una ventaja de informaci\u00f3n significativa. Las peque\u00f1as diferencias suelen reflejar la fricci\u00f3n de acceso (hubs en Polymarket, comisiones en Kalshi, m\u00e1rgenes operativos en casas de apuestas).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cuando-mover\">Cu\u00e1ndo se mueven m\u00e1s los precios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Por su lado, los precios en los mercados de predicci\u00f3n del Mundial 2026 se mover\u00e1n especialmente en estas ventanas:<\/p>\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n<!--KALSHI_SLOT2_ES_START-->\n<section class=\"sq-kalshi-mini\"><p class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__h\">Movimiento de 30 d\u00edas en Kalshi<\/p><p class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__sub\">C\u00f3mo se han movido las principales contendientes en Kalshi en los \u00faltimos 30 d\u00edas. <a href=\"\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/kalshi\/\">Lee nuestra rese\u00f1a completa de Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p><table><thead><tr><th>Selecci\u00f3n<\/th><th>Ahora<\/th><th>Mov. 30d<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>France<\/td><td>18.5%<\/td><td class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up\">\u25b2 +0.7pts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spain<\/td><td>13.3%<\/td><td class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down\">\u25bc -3.1pts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>England<\/td><td>13.0%<\/td><td class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up\">\u25b2 +1.9pts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Argentina<\/td><td>11.0%<\/td><td class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up\">\u25b2 +1.1pts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Portugal<\/td><td>8.4%<\/td><td class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down\">\u25bc -0.2pts<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p class=\"sq-kalshi-mini__cap\">Fuente: Mercados de predicci\u00f3n de Kalshi. Los movimientos pueden ser moderados antes del torneo \u2014 los ajustes m\u00e1s fuertes suelen llegar con los resultados.<\/p><\/section>\n<!--KALSHI_SLOT2_ES_END-->\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; 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padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; 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margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; 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border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; 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}\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Convocatorias finales<\/strong> (finales de mayo \/ principios de junio): cuando cada selecci\u00f3n anuncia su lista de 26 jugadores. Lesiones u omisiones afectan a los precios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Partidos amistosos pre-Mundial<\/strong>: ya est\u00e1n en marcha. Resultados llamativos pueden ajustar precios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Partido inaugural y primera semana<\/strong>: los primeros resultados ajustan probabilidades dr\u00e1sticamente. Una sorpresa temprana puede mover el mercado de forma significativa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cierre de fase de grupos<\/strong>: cuando el cuadro de eliminaci\u00f3n se resuelve, los precios se reajustan seg\u00fan los cruces.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cuartos de final en adelante<\/strong>: cada partido elimina favoritas y los precios se concentran r\u00e1pidamente.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"faqs\">Preguntas frecuentes sobre las predicciones del Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\">\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483112\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 es Polymarket?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Por su parte, polymarket es el mayor mercado de predicci\u00f3n del mundo por volumen, basado en blockchain. Permite a los usuarios comprar y vender contratos sobre eventos futuros, incluyendo el Mundial 2026. Para m\u00e1s detalles, ve a nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/polymarket-review\/\">rese\u00f1a de Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483113\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 es Kalshi?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">En la pr\u00e1ctica, kalshi es el primer mercado de predicci\u00f3n regulado por la CFTC en Estados Unidos. Funciona con d\u00f3lares estadounidenses tradicionales y permite operar contratos sobre eventos futuros. Para m\u00e1s detalles, ve a nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/kalshi\/\">rese\u00f1a de Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483114\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfEs legal usar Polymarket y Kalshi en Estados Unidos?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Sin embargo, kalshi opera bajo regulaci\u00f3n de la CFTC y est\u00e1 disponible legalmente en EE.UU. Polymarket es un mercado descentralizado; el acceso desde EE.UU. ha tenido restricciones espec\u00edficas en momentos puntuales. Consulta las condiciones de cada plataforma antes de operar.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483115\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 selecci\u00f3n tiene la mayor probabilidad impl\u00edcita en los mercados de predicci\u00f3n?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Adem\u00e1s, espa\u00f1a, con una probabilidad impl\u00edcita alrededor del 18% en ambos Polymarket y Kalshi. Es la favorita absoluta del Mundial 2026 tanto en mercados de predicci\u00f3n como en casas de apuestas tradicionales.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483116\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfLos mercados de predicci\u00f3n son m\u00e1s precisos que las casas de apuestas?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Adem\u00e1s, para eventos de alto volumen como el Mundial, las dos fuentes suelen converger en probabilidades muy similares. La diferencia principal es la mec\u00e1nica: los mercados de predicci\u00f3n permiten vender la posici\u00f3n antes del evento, mientras que las casas de apuestas tradicionales fijan la apuesta en el momento de colocarla.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p><em>Solo para mayores de 21 a\u00f1os. Apuesta y opera de forma responsable. Si t\u00fa o alguien que conoces tiene un problema con el juego, llama al 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M26 Hub Calendario Posiciones Momios Predicciones La Final La jornada 2 del Mundial 2026 ya tiene su segundo gran resultado: Noruega 4-1 Irak en el Gillette Stadium, sumando a Noruega seis puntos y +3 de diferencia de gol en la cima del Grupo I, tras el Francia 3-1 Senegal de m&aacute;s temprano. Los mercados de&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3584,"featured_media":225,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"predicciones mundial 2026","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026: Noruega se suma a Francia | Squawka","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026 tras la jornada 2: Noruega 4-1 Irak se une a Francia 3-1 Senegal como los dos favoritos del Grupo I. Probabilidades implicitas en vivo de Polymarket y Kalshi.","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"news-category":[242],"class_list":["post-192","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-category-mundial-2026"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Predicciones del Mundial 2026: Noruega se suma a Francia | Squawka<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Predicciones del Mundial 2026 tras la jornada 2: Noruega 4-1 Irak se une a Francia 3-1 Senegal como los dos favoritos del Grupo I. 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La diferencia principal es la mec\u00e1nica: los mercados de predicci\u00f3n permiten vender la posici\u00f3n antes del evento, mientras que las casas de apuestas tradicionales fijan la apuesta en el momento de colocarla.","inLanguage":"es"},"inLanguage":"es"}]}},"yoast_title":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026: Noruega se suma a Francia | Squawka","yoast_description":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026 tras la jornada 2: Noruega 4-1 Irak se une a Francia 3-1 Senegal como los dos favoritos del Grupo I. Probabilidades implicitas en vivo de Polymarket y Kalshi.","yoast_keyword":"predicciones mundial 2026","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3584"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2081,"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/192\/revisions\/2081"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192"},{"taxonomy":"news-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-category?post=192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}