{"id":192,"date":"2026-07-17T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/?post_type=news&#038;p=192"},"modified":"2026-07-21T06:23:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T10:23:15","slug":"predicciones-mundial-2026","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/news\/mundial-2026\/predicciones-mundial-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026: Polymarket, Kalshi y Mercados de Predicci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style>\n.sq-wc26 {\n  --sq-forest-deep: #002a23;\n  --sq-forest:      #003d33;\n  --sq-green:       #00c752;\n  --sq-lime:        #b0eb00;\n  --sq-gut:         24px;\n  --sq-max:         1240px;\n  --sq-display:     \"Oswald\", \"Helvetica Neue\", Arial, sans-serif;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs {\n  position: sticky; top: 0; z-index: 40;\n  background: var(--sq-forest-deep);\n  border-bottom: 3px solid var(--sq-green);\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__inner {\n  display: flex; align-items: center;\n  max-width: var(--sq-max); margin: 0 auto;\n  padding: 0 var(--sq-gut); overflow-x: auto; scrollbar-width: none;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__inner::-webkit-scrollbar { display: none; }\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__brand {\n  display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px;\n  padding: 16px 16px 14px 0; margin-right: 8px;\n  font-family: var(--sq-display); font-weight: 700;\n  font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: .2em; text-transform: uppercase;\n  color: var(--sq-lime); border-right: 1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.12);\n  flex-shrink: 0; white-space: nowrap;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__brand::before {\n  content: \"\"; width: 7px; height: 7px; border-radius: 50%;\n  background: var(--sq-lime); box-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(176,235,0,.8); flex-shrink: 0;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a {\n  flex: 0 0 auto; padding: 18px 18px 16px;\n  font-family: var(--sq-display); font-weight: 600;\n  font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: .12em; text-transform: uppercase;\n  color: rgba(255,255,255,.65); border-bottom: 3px solid transparent;\n  text-decoration: none; white-space: nowrap;\n  transition: color .15s, border-color .15s, background .15s; margin-bottom: -3px;\n}\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a:hover { color: #fff; background: rgba(255,255,255,.04); }\n.sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a.is-active { color: #fff; border-bottom-color: var(--sq-lime); background: rgba(255,255,255,.04); }\n@media (max-width: 720px) {\n  .sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a { padding: 15px 14px 13px; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: .08em; }\n  .sq-wc26 .sq-tabs__brand { font-size: 11px; padding-right: 12px; }\n}\n@media (max-width: 480px) {\n  .sq-wc26 .sq-tabs a { padding: 13px 11px 11px; font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: .06em; }\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"sq-wc26\">\n  <nav class=\"sq-tabs\" aria-label=\"Mundial 2026 navegaci\u00f3n\">\n    <div class=\"sq-tabs__inner\">\n      <span class=\"sq-tabs__brand\">M26<\/span>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/mundial-2026\/\">Hub<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/calendario-mundial-2026\/\">Calendario<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/posiciones-mundial-2026\/\">Posiciones<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/outright-markets\/apuestas-mundial-2026\/\">Momios<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/news\/predicciones-mundial-2026\/\" class=\"is-active\">Predicciones<\/a>\n      <a href=\"\/us-es\/news\/final-copa-del-mundo-2026\/\">La Final<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Espa\u00f1a es campe\u00f3n del Mundial 2026<\/strong>, tras vencer 1-0 a Argentina en la final despu\u00e9s del tiempo extra, con gol de Ferran Torres. A lo largo del torneo los mercados de predicci\u00f3n tuvieron a Francia y Espa\u00f1a al frente del mercado de campe\u00f3n; al final, fue Espa\u00f1a quien levant\u00f3 el trofeo. Abajo tienes el resultado y c\u00f3mo leyeron el torneo Kalshi y Polymarket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En esta p\u00e1gina tienes el desglose de c\u00f3mo terminaron las predicciones del Mundial 2026 en los dos mercados de predicci\u00f3n m\u00e1s relevantes en Estados Unidos: <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> (mercado descentralizado, basado en blockchain) y <strong>Kalshi<\/strong> (mercado regulado por la CFTC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Nota para usuarios en EE.UU.:<\/strong> Polymarket ya est\u00e1 en vivo para operar con dinero real en EE.UU. tras su adquisici\u00f3n de QCX en 2025, un exchange regulado por la CFTC, disponible en la mayor\u00eda de los estados con excepci\u00f3n de Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada y Ohio. Los nuevos usuarios pueden reclamar un bono del 100% hasta $50 con el c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05. Los precios mostrados son cifras reales de la plataforma Polymarket. <a href=\"\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/kalshi\/\">Kalshi<\/a>, tambi\u00e9n regulada por la CFTC, opera en los 50 estados.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"que-son-mercados\">Qu\u00e9 son los mercados de predicci\u00f3n<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por ello, un <strong>mercado de predicci\u00f3n<\/strong> es una plataforma donde los usuarios compran y venden contratos sobre el resultado de un evento futuro. Cada contrato paga una cantidad fija (t\u00edpicamente USD 1) si el resultado se cumple, y nada si no. El precio del contrato \u2014 entre 0 y 1 USD \u2014 se interpreta como la <strong>probabilidad impl\u00edcita<\/strong> que el mercado le asigna al resultado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por ejemplo: si un contrato &#8220;Espa\u00f1a gana el Mundial 2026&#8221; se vende a USD 0.18, eso implica que el mercado le asigna a Espa\u00f1a una probabilidad de aproximadamente 18% de ganar el torneo. La diferencia frente a una casa de apuestas tradicional es que ese precio surge del trading entre usuarios, no de las decisiones de un operador.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"polymarket\">Polymarket: predicciones del Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Polymarket<\/strong> es el mayor mercado de predicci\u00f3n del mundo por volumen. Funciona en blockchain (USDC en la red Polygon) y opera de forma descentralizada. Para los usuarios en Estados Unidos, el acceso depende del estado y de las condiciones legales locales \u2014 Polymarket ha tenido restricciones de acceso desde EE.UU. en momentos espec\u00edficos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El mercado del Mundial 2026 en Polymarket estuvo activo desde finales de 2024 con volumen importante. Durante el torneo, los cinco favoritos concentraron los precios m\u00e1s altos \u2014Espa\u00f1a, Francia, Argentina, Inglaterra y Brasil\u2014 y Espa\u00f1a termin\u00f3 cumpliendo el pron\u00f3stico al ganar el t\u00edtulo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para m\u00e1s detalles sobre c\u00f3mo funciona Polymarket y c\u00f3mo registrarte, consulta nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/polymarket-review\/\">rese\u00f1a completa de Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"147\"\n            data-offer-id=\"657\"\n    >\n\t\t            <span class=\"sq-toplist__label\">C\u00d3DIGO: ACQUIRE05<\/span>\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#ffffff\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18142018\/polymarket-1.svg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a>\t\t\t\t                <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer-box\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__bookmaker\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"brand_name\">Polymarket<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-tablet-visible\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">100% hasta $50 con el c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-mobile-visible\">\n                    <a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">100% hasta $50 con el c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05<\/a>                <\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/polymarket?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Polymarket\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"8.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"cta\" class=\"sq-btn sq-btn--secondary sq-btn--full\">\u00a1OPERA AHORA!<\/a>                <div class=\"sq-rating\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__text\">Our Score<\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__value\">8.5<\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/polymarket\/\" class=\"sq-review-link\">\n                    <span>Read our review<\/span>\n                <\/a>\n            <\/div>\n\t\t\t        <\/div>\n\t\t            <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\"><p>Debes tener al menos 18 a\u00f1os y contar con una direcci\u00f3n residencial legal en EE. UU. dentro del estado correspondiente, D.C. o territorios de EE. UU. No disponible en AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV ni OH. \u00bfProblemas con el juego? Llama o env\u00eda un mensaje al 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat disponible en <a href=\"https:\/\/na0messaging.icarol.com\/ConsumerRegistration.aspx?org=65800&amp;pid=57&amp;cc=en-US&amp;RIF1=651580\">ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"kalshi\">Kalshi: predicciones del Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kalshi<\/strong> es el primer mercado de predicci\u00f3n <strong>regulado por la CFTC<\/strong> (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, el regulador estadounidense de derivados) y la \u00fanica plataforma de mercados de predicci\u00f3n donde los usuarios en EE.UU. pueden operar con dinero real hoy mismo, en los 50 estados, con d\u00f3lares estadounidenses. Polymarket, aunque tiene la v\u00eda regulatoria federal tras su adquisici\u00f3n de QCX, ya admite trading con dinero real para cuentas estadounidenses en la mayor\u00eda de los estados (excepto AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV y OH), con un bono del 100% hasta $50 (c\u00f3digo ACQUIRE05) para nuevos usuarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El mercado del Mundial 2026 en Kalshi mostr\u00f3 probabilidades muy similares a Polymarket, con Espa\u00f1a como favorita y el bloque de cuatro perseguidoras por detr\u00e1s. Espa\u00f1a confirm\u00f3 ese favoritismo levantando el trofeo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para m\u00e1s detalles sobre Kalshi, consulta nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/kalshi\/\">rese\u00f1a completa de Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"141\"\n            data-offer-id=\"11\"\n    >\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Bet365\"data-placement=\"toplist-offers\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#005641\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/04\/18142100\/bet365_Logo_Inline.svg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a>\t\t\t\t                <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer-box\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__bookmaker\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Bet365\"data-placement=\"toplist-offers\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"brand_name\">Bet365<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-tablet-visible\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Bet365\"data-placement=\"toplist-offers\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Safety Net en tu primera apuesta &#8211; Hasta $1,000 en Bonus Bets<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-mobile-visible\">\n                    <a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Bet365\"data-placement=\"toplist-offers\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Safety Net en tu primera apuesta &#8211; Hasta $1,000 en Bonus Bets<\/a>                <\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=us-sg1-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Bet365\"data-placement=\"toplist-offers\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"cta\" class=\"sq-btn sq-btn--secondary sq-btn--full\">Reclamar oferta<\/a>                <div class=\"sq-rating\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__text\">Our Score<\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__value\">9.5<\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/bet365\/\" class=\"sq-review-link\">\n                    <span>Read our review<\/span>\n                <\/a>\n            <\/div>\n\t\t\t        <\/div>\n\t\t            <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\"><p>Dep\u00f3sito requerido. Pagado en Bonus Bets. La apuesta de Bonus Bets queda excluida del pago. Solo clientes nuevos. Aplican T&amp;Cs, l\u00edmites de tiempo y exclusiones.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"146\"\n            data-offer-id=\"656\"\n    >\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#ffffff\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"77\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-300x77.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-300x77.png 300w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-1024x263.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-768x197.png 768w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-1536x394.png 1536w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-2048x526.png 2048w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-400x103.png 400w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-600x154.png 600w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-234x60.png 234w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-150x38.png 150w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/05\/18141924\/Kalshi_logo.svg-scaled-1-288x74.png 288w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\t\t\t\t                <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer-box\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__bookmaker\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"brand_name\">Kalshi<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-tablet-visible\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Opera $10, recibe $10 de bono<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-mobile-visible\">\n                    <a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Opera $10, recibe $10 de bono<\/a>                <\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/kalshi?q=us-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Kalshi\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"9.5\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"cta\" class=\"sq-btn sq-btn--secondary sq-btn--full\">Operar mercados<\/a>                <div class=\"sq-rating\">\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__text\">Our Score<\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-rating__value\">9.5<\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/bet\/betting-sites\/kalshi\/\" class=\"sq-review-link\">\n                    <span>Read our review<\/span>\n                <\/a>\n            <\/div>\n\t\t\t        <\/div>\n\t\t            <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\"><p>Solo mayores de 21 a\u00f1os. \u00bfProblemas con el juego? Llama o env\u00eda un mensaje al 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat disponible en ncpgambling.org\/chat<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"diferencias\">Mercados de predicci\u00f3n vs. casas de apuestas: \u00bfen qu\u00e9 se diferencian?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Origen del precio:<\/strong> en una casa de apuestas, el operador fija los momios y absorbe el riesgo. En un mercado de predicci\u00f3n, los precios surgen del trading entre usuarios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Margen del operador:<\/strong> las casas de apuestas tienen un margen integrado en los momios (t\u00edpicamente 5\u201310% en mercados l\u00edquidos). Los mercados de predicci\u00f3n cobran comisiones expl\u00edcitas por trade y suelen tener menor margen total.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Liquidez:<\/strong> las casas de apuestas tienen liquidez garantizada por el operador. Los mercados de predicci\u00f3n dependen de que haya contraparte para cada trade \u2014 en mercados grandes esto rara vez es un problema, pero en mercados peque\u00f1os s\u00ed puede serlo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trading vs. apuesta:<\/strong> en un mercado de predicci\u00f3n puedes vender tu posici\u00f3n antes del evento, capturando ganancias o limitando p\u00e9rdidas. En una casa de apuestas tradicional, una vez colocada la apuesta queda fija (salvo cash-out parcial en algunos operadores).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regulaci\u00f3n:<\/strong> Kalshi est\u00e1 regulado por la CFTC en EE.UU. Polymarket opera de forma descentralizada (regulaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s limitada). Las casas de apuestas estadounidenses est\u00e1n reguladas estado por estado por las comisiones de juego correspondientes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"comparativa\">Comparativa: mercados de predicci\u00f3n vs. casas de apuestas para el Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Selecci\u00f3n<\/th><th>Polymarket<\/th><th>Kalshi<\/th><th>Casas de apuestas (impl\u00edcita)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Espa\u00f1a<\/td><td>~18%<\/td><td>~18%<\/td><td>~17\u201318%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Francia<\/td><td>~14%<\/td><td>~14%<\/td><td>~14\u201315%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Argentina<\/td><td>~13%<\/td><td>~13%<\/td><td>~12\u201313%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inglaterra<\/td><td>~11%<\/td><td>~11%<\/td><td>~11\u201312%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brasil<\/td><td>~10%<\/td><td>~10%<\/td><td>~10\u201311%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Probabilidades impl\u00edcitas aproximadas. Los precios cambian con el mercado.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La lectura en vivo del mercado del ganador del Mundial 2026 en las dos plataformas reguladas de mercados de predicci\u00f3n para usuarios en EE. UU. \u2014 <a href=\"\/us-es\/news\/kalshi-resena\/\">Kalshi<\/a> y <a href=\"\/us-es\/news\/polymarket-resena\/\">Polymarket<\/a>. Cuanto m\u00e1s larga la probabilidad impl\u00edcita, m\u00e1s favorita es una selecci\u00f3n; las diferencias entre ambas plataformas son donde est\u00e1 la ventaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"border-radius:16px;overflow:hidden;margin:24px 0;background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29,#08251a);color:#f4f8f1;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,sans-serif;box-shadow:0 14px 36px rgba(10,44,31,.3)\"><div style=\"padding:22px 24px\"><div style=\"display:inline-block;border:1.5px solid rgba(168,224,57,.5);border-radius:999px;padding:5px 14px;color:#a8e039;font-weight:800;font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;margin-bottom:14px\">Resultado Final &middot; Mundial 2026<\/div><div style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;gap:14px;margin-bottom:6px\"><span style=\"font-size:34px\">&#127942;<\/span><div><div style=\"font-size:11px;font-weight:800;letter-spacing:.14em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8e039\">Campe&oacute;n<\/div><div style=\"font-size:30px;font-weight:900;color:#fff;line-height:1.05\">Espa&ntilde;a<\/div><\/div><\/div><div style=\"color:rgba(255,255,255,.72);font-size:14px;margin-bottom:18px\">Venci&oacute; 1&ndash;0 a Argentina en la final tras tiempo extra &middot; gol de Ferran Torres<\/div><table style=\"width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;font-size:14.5px\"><tbody><tr style=\"background:rgba(168,224,57,.11)\"><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:900;color:#a8e039;width:34px;text-align:center\">1<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:800;color:#fff\">Espa&ntilde;a<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;text-align:right;color:#a8e039;font-weight:700\">Campe&oacute;n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:900;color:rgba(255,255,255,.5);text-align:center\">2<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:700\">Argentina<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;text-align:right;color:rgba(255,255,255,.6)\">Subcampe&oacute;n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:900;color:rgba(255,255,255,.5);text-align:center\">3<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:700\">Inglaterra<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;text-align:right;color:rgba(255,255,255,.6)\">3.&ordm; &middot; 6&ndash;4 a Francia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:900;color:rgba(255,255,255,.5);text-align:center\">4<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;font-weight:700\">Francia<\/td><td style=\"padding:9px 10px;text-align:right;color:rgba(255,255,255,.6)\">4.&ordm;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><div style=\"margin-top:16px;padding-top:14px;border-top:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22);font-size:14px;color:rgba(255,255,255,.85)\"><b style=\"color:#F0B429\">Bota de Oro:<\/b> Kylian Mbapp&eacute; (Francia) &mdash; 10 goles, con los que se convirti&oacute; en el m&aacute;ximo goleador hist&oacute;rico de los Mundiales (22). Los mercados ten&iacute;an a Espa&ntilde;a entre las favoritas, y cumpli&oacute;.<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cuando-mover\">Cu\u00e1ndo se mueven m\u00e1s los precios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por su lado, los precios en los mercados de predicci\u00f3n del Mundial 2026 se mover\u00e1n especialmente en estas ventanas:<\/p>\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; 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text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td:first-child { text-align:left; font-weight:700; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-up { color:#a8e039; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-down { color:#FF6B6B; font-weight:800; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__delta-flat { color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); font-weight:600; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__cap { font-size:11.5px; color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n<style>\n.sq-kalshi-mini { background:linear-gradient(135deg,#0e3f29 0%,#0a2c1f 60%,#08251a 100%);\n  border-radius:14px; padding:22px 26px; margin:22px 0;\n  font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Inter,sans-serif;\n  color:#f4f8f1; box-shadow:0 12px 30px rgba(10,44,31,.28); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__h { color:#a8e039; font-size:12px; font-weight:800; text-transform:uppercase;\n  letter-spacing:2px; margin:0 0 12px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub { color:rgba(255,255,255,.7); font-size:13px; margin:0 0 14px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini__sub a { color:#a8e039; text-decoration:underline; text-underline-offset:2px; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini table { width:100%; border-collapse:collapse; font-size:13.5px;\n  background:rgba(8,37,26,.5); border:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.18); border-radius:10px;\n  overflow:hidden; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th { background:rgba(10,44,31,.7); color:#a8e039; font-weight:800;\n  letter-spacing:.7px; text-transform:uppercase; font-size:11px; padding:9px 8px;\n  text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid rgba(168,224,57,.22); }\n.sq-kalshi-mini thead th:first-child { text-align:left; }\n.sq-kalshi-mini tbody td { padding:10px 8px; text-align:center; color:#f4f8f1;\n  font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.05); 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color:rgba(255,255,255,.5); margin:10px 4px 0;\n  line-height:1.5; }\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Convocatorias finales<\/strong> (finales de mayo \/ principios de junio): cuando cada selecci\u00f3n anuncia su lista de 26 jugadores. Lesiones u omisiones afectan a los precios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Partidos amistosos pre-Mundial<\/strong>: ya est\u00e1n en marcha. Resultados llamativos pueden ajustar precios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Partido inaugural y primera semana<\/strong>: los primeros resultados ajustan probabilidades dr\u00e1sticamente. Una sorpresa temprana puede mover el mercado de forma significativa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cierre de fase de grupos<\/strong>: cuando el cuadro de eliminaci\u00f3n se resuelve, los precios se reajustan seg\u00fan los cruces.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cuartos de final en adelante<\/strong>: cada partido elimina favoritas y los precios se concentran r\u00e1pidamente.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"faqs\">Preguntas frecuentes sobre las predicciones del Mundial 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\">\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483112\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 es Polymarket?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Por su parte, polymarket es el mayor mercado de predicci\u00f3n del mundo por volumen, basado en blockchain. Permite a los usuarios comprar y vender contratos sobre eventos futuros, incluyendo el Mundial 2026. Para m\u00e1s detalles, ve a nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/polymarket-review\/\">rese\u00f1a de Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483113\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 es Kalshi?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">En la pr\u00e1ctica, kalshi es el primer mercado de predicci\u00f3n regulado por la CFTC en Estados Unidos. Funciona con d\u00f3lares estadounidenses tradicionales y permite operar contratos sobre eventos futuros. Para m\u00e1s detalles, ve a nuestra <a href=\"\/us-es\/kalshi\/\">rese\u00f1a de Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483114\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfEs legal usar Polymarket y Kalshi en Estados Unidos?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Sin embargo, kalshi opera bajo regulaci\u00f3n de la CFTC y est\u00e1 disponible legalmente en EE.UU. Polymarket es un mercado descentralizado; el acceso desde EE.UU. ha tenido restricciones espec\u00edficas en momentos puntuales. Consulta las condiciones de cada plataforma antes de operar.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483115\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfQui\u00e9n gan\u00f3 el Mundial 2026?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Espa\u00f1a gan\u00f3 el Mundial 2026, al vencer 1-0 a Argentina en la final tras el tiempo extra. Fue la favorita de los mercados de predicci\u00f3n (Polymarket y Kalshi) durante buena parte del torneo, as\u00ed que el resultado confirm\u00f3 lo que ya se\u00f1alaban.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1778489483116\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u00bfLos mercados de predicci\u00f3n son m\u00e1s precisos que las casas de apuestas?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Adem\u00e1s, para eventos de alto volumen como el Mundial, las dos fuentes suelen converger en probabilidades muy similares. La diferencia principal es la mec\u00e1nica: los mercados de predicci\u00f3n permiten vender la posici\u00f3n antes del evento, mientras que las casas de apuestas tradicionales fijan la apuesta en el momento de colocarla.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Solo para mayores de 21 a\u00f1os. Apuesta y opera de forma responsable. Si t\u00fa o alguien que conoces tiene un problema con el juego, llama al 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M26 Hub Calendario Posiciones Momios Predicciones La Final Espa\u00f1a es campe\u00f3n del Mundial 2026, tras vencer 1-0 a Argentina en la final despu\u00e9s del tiempo extra, con gol de Ferran Torres. A lo largo del torneo los mercados de predicci\u00f3n tuvieron a Francia y Espa\u00f1a al frente del mercado de campe\u00f3n; al final, fue Espa\u00f1a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3584,"featured_media":225,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"predicciones mundial 2026","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Predicciones del Mundial 2026: Espa\u00f1a Campe\u00f3n | Squawka","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"C\u00f3mo termin\u00f3 el Mundial 2026: Espa\u00f1a campe\u00f3n, con el desglose de los mercados de predicci\u00f3n (Kalshi y Polymarket) y c\u00f3mo leyeron el torneo.","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"news-category":[242],"class_list":["post-192","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-category-mundial-2026"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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Polymarket) y c\u00f3mo leyeron el torneo.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/us-es\/news\/mundial-2026\/predicciones-mundial-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Squawka | US-ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-21T10:23:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/sites\/14\/2026\/04\/30094531\/MUNDIAL-2026-Predicciones.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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