{"id":1442341,"date":"2026-04-09T12:50:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T11:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?post_type=news&p=1442341"},"modified":"2026-04-09T12:50:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T11:50:34","slug":"match-preview-southampton-vs-derby-11-04-26-championship","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/match-preview-southampton-vs-derby-11-04-26-championship\/","title":{"rendered":"Southampton vs Derby County: predictions, stats, tips & odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Southampton<\/a> host Derby County<\/a> in what promises to be a vital Championship<\/a> clash at St Mary\u2019s, with both sides still in the play-off hunt as the business end of the 2025\/26 season approaches. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kick-off is set for 15:00 on Saturday, and the Saints arrive full of confidence after a thumping 5\u20131 away win over Wrexham. Yet, history suggests this fixture could be far tighter than the stats imply, with the previous three encounters all ending level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Based on Southampton\u2019s superior attacking metrics and Derby\u2019s tendency for both teams to get on the scoresheet, here are our top betting recommendations. We\u2019re particularly confident in a Southampton win, given their high shot output, strong home form, and the fact they come into this with real momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Bookmaker<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Southampton to Win<\/strong><\/td>\n8\/11 @ Betfair<\/a>
(57.9%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nSouthampton boast the league\u2019s highest shot output (574), a 68-goal haul, and are coming off a 5\u20131 victory. Derby have struggled for consistency away from home and have a lower pass and shot accuracy, making the Saints deserved favourites.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Both Teams to Score \u2013 Yes<\/strong><\/td>\n8\/11 @ Betfred<\/a>
(57.9%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nAll three of the last head-to-heads have seen both teams find the net, and while Southampton are prolific, Derby have netted in every recent meeting. Saints\u2019 high defensive line could be exposed on the break, so BTTS Yes is strong value.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing.<\/p>\n\n\n

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    Season Form & Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Both teams remain firmly in the hunt for a play-off spot. Southampton sit 6th with 66 points from 40 matches, while Derby are just three points back in 8th, but have played one game more. The Saints have a superior goal difference (+19) and have been more consistent in attack. Derby\u2019s defensive record is only marginally better in terms of clean sheets (11 to Southampton\u2019s 10), but they have conceded more cards, which could be costly in a tense run-in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Southampton<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n68<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n+19<\/td>\n66<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Derby County<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n+9<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Neither Southampton nor Derby County have players topping the league charts for goals or assists, suggesting both sides rely on a collective approach. However, several individuals could make the difference:<\/p>\n\n\n\n