{"id":1433305,"date":"2026-02-16T12:11:30","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T12:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?post_type=news&#038;p=1433305"},"modified":"2026-02-16T12:11:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T12:11:32","slug":"match-preview-benfica-vs-real-madrid-17-02-26-champions-league","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/match-preview-benfica-vs-real-madrid-17-02-26-champions-league\/","title":{"rendered":"Benfica vs Real Madrid: predictions, stats, tips &#038; odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Benfica and Real Madrid meet in what is sure to be a captivating affair in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/champions-league-tips\/\">Champions League<\/a> knockout first-leg tie on Tuesday. Jose Mourinho will have his troops ready for battle at the Estadio da Luz, with the game kicking off at 8:00pm live on Amazon Prime. Find our best bets and match preview below.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-best-bets-amp-predictions\">Best Bets &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on Real Madrid\u2019s clinical finishing and Benfica\u2019s tendency to underperform in front of goal, our top betting recommendations focus on attacking markets and standout player contributions. We\u2019re particularly confident in backing Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 to score anytime, given his extraordinary conversion rate in this competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Our Prediction<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Odds &amp; Bookmaker<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confidence<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Why We&#8217;re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 to score anytime<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><a href=\"\/en\/go\/betfair?q=gb-all-con-wof-s-spo\">8\/11 @ Betfair<\/a><br>(43.5%)<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mbapp\u00e9 has netted 13 goals in 8 matches, exceeding his xG by over 9 goals\u2014a demonstration of finishing at the very highest level. With a shot accuracy of 52.9% and Real Madrid\u2019s attacking style, he\u2019s the most likely match-winner on the pitch.<\/td>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Benfica or Draw (Double Chance)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><a href=\"\/en\/go\/sky-bet?q=gb-all-con-wof-s-spo\">11\/10 @ SkyBet<\/a><br>(47.6%)<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Benfica won their last home meeting 4-2 and have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 games. Real Madrid have shown defensive lapses, including 3 red cards in 8 matches, giving the hosts a realistic chance to avoid defeat.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"vcsw-sports-widgets shortcode vcsw-market-fixtures\" id=\"markets-1\"><script type=\"application\/json\">{\"sports_type\":\"football\",\"event\":{\"_id\":\"697d7128bc68f466d11a9734\",\"sports_type\":\"football\",\"competition_season\":{\"_id\":\"683e57bb2febbf834dbca6d5\",\"sports_type\":\"football\",\"competition\":\"UEFA Champions League\",\"country\":\"Europe\",\"season\":\"2025\\\/2026\",\"start_date\":\"2025-07-08T00:00:00+00:00\",\"end_date\":\"2026-05-30T00:00:00+00:00\",\"tags\":[\"routine_fixture\"],\"stages\":[{\"stage_id\":null,\"stage_name\":\"2nd Qualifying Round\",\"standings_available\":false},{\"stage_id\":null,\"stage_name\":\"1st Qualifying Round\",\"standings_available\":false},{\"stage_id\":null,\"stage_name\":\"3rd Qualifying 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Round\",\"standings_available\":false},{\"stage_id\":\"6a2606026a88de21bee1a4a1\",\"stage_name\":\"1st Qualifying Round\",\"standings_available\":false},{\"stage_id\":\"6a2606026a88de21bee1a4a2\",\"stage_name\":\"2nd Qualifying Round\",\"standings_available\":false},{\"stage_id\":\"6a1e39f6dd2a4896f26f07e9\",\"stage_name\":\"League Stage\",\"standings_available\":true},{\"stage_id\":\"6a2606026a88de21bee1a4a3\",\"stage_name\":\"3rd Qualifying Round\",\"standings_available\":false}]},\"datetime\":\"2026-02-17T20:00:00+00:00\",\"name\":\"Benfica vs Real Madrid\",\"participants\":[{\"participant_id\":\"665db6d6e93e306d7f468ec9\",\"name\":\"Benfica\",\"team_badge\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sc-prod.onetwenty.media\\\/storage\\\/team-logos\\\/sl-benfica-b.png\",\"side\":\"home\",\"formation\":null,\"result\":{\"half_time\":0,\"full_time\":0,\"extra_time\":0,\"penalties\":0,\"total\":0}},{\"participant_id\":\"665db6b5e93e306d7f466403\",\"name\":\"Real 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Score\",\"name\":\"Both Teams To Score\"},{\"_id\":\"Over\\\/Under\",\"name\":\"Over\\\/Under\"},{\"_id\":\"Correct Score\",\"name\":\"Correct Score\"},{\"_id\":\"Player Shots On Target\",\"name\":\"Player Shots On Target\"},{\"_id\":\"Player To Be Carded\",\"name\":\"Player To Be Carded\"}],\"active_market\":\"\",\"show_title\":\"false\",\"limit_markets\":\"\",\"widget_type\":\"markets\"}<\/script><\/div>\n\n\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/stakemate-bet-10-get-20-in-free-bets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stakemate Offer<\/a>: Bet \u00a310, get \u00a320 in free bets<\/h2>\r\n<p><a href=\"\/en\/go\/stakemate?q=gb-all-all-wof-s-spo\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1422508\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-1024x489.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"489\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-1024x489.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-768x367.png 768w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-1536x733.png 1536w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-400x191.png 400w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-419x200.png 419w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-126x60.png 126w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-150x72.png 150w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150-40x19.png 40w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/01\/06122108\/image-150.png 1986w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>How to claim:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ol>\r\n<li>Go to Stakemate using <a href=\"\/en\/go\/stakemate?q=gb-all-all-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>this link<\/strong><\/a>.<\/li>\r\n<li>Download the app and create your account<\/li>\r\n<li>Place your first bet of \u00a310 or more (minimum odds of 2\/1)<\/li>\r\n<li>Once settled, receive 4 x \u00a35 free bets - minimum 3 selections and 2\/1 odds on each bet.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<div class=\"sq-toplist\" data-bookmaker-id=\"1408906\" data-offer-id=\"1408908\">\r\n<div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\r\n<div class=\"sq-toplist__item\">\r\n<div class=\"sq-toplist__item-tc\">\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>#AD 18+ New Customers Only. Place any \u00a310 bet to qualify, min 2.0 (1\/1) odds. Qualifying bet must settle, excluding cash outs. Bonus credited with 24hrs of settlement. 4 x \u00a35 free bets. Free bets min 3 selections and 3.0 odds. Returns exclude free bet stake. Expiry applies. Full T&amp;Cs apply.<\/em><\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><small>Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Season Form &amp; Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Team<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pos<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">P<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">W<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">L<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">GF<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">GA<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">GD<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Arsenal<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">23<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">+19<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Bayern Munchen<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">22<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">+14<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Liverpool<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">20<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">+12<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Real Madrid<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">21<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">12<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">+9<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Benfica<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">12<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-2<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 (Real Madrid)<\/strong>: 13 goals in 8 games, shot accuracy 52.9%, 25 big chance assists\u2014lethal both as finisher and creator, averaging over 1.6 goals per 90.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Evangelos Pavlidis (Benfica)<\/strong>: Benfica\u2019s main attacking threat, will likely shoulder the scoring responsibility, especially with Benfica\u2019s xG suggesting they create good chances but lack clinical finishing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nicol\u00e1s Otamendi (Benfica)<\/strong>: Key in defence, instrumental in Benfica\u2019s 6 clean sheets (in 12), and a leader in aerial duels (team has won 151 this campaign).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SquawkaBet\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-1024x114.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1415389\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-1024x114.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-300x33.jpg 300w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-768x86.jpg 768w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-1536x171.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-400x45.jpg 400w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-600x67.jpg 600w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-538x60.jpg 538w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-150x17.jpg 150w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-40x4.jpg 40w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1.jpg 1792w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Head-to-head<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Last 6 Meetings<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most recent and only recorded clash between these two sides went Benfica\u2019s way in a lively 4-2 victory at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"\" data-align=\"center\">Date<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Score<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Competition<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28\/01\/26<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Champions League<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-will-benfica-s-defence-hold-out-against-real-madrid-s-attack\">Will Benfica&#8217;s defence hold out against Real Madrid&#8217;s attack?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Real Madrid\u2019s attack firing\u2014led by the remarkable Mbapp\u00e9\u2014and Benfica relying on a tight defensive unit and home advantage, this match promises a real tactical battle. Whether Benfica can restrict Madrid\u2019s efficiency in front of goal may well decide the outcome. For those looking to bet, backing <a href=\"\/en\/go\/betfair?q=gb-all-con-wof-s-spo\">Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 to score anytime at 8\/11 with Betfair<\/a> looks the smartest play given his track record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><small>Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Read more:<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/\"><strong>Latest football news<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Football betting tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Best betting sites<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/best-free-bet-offers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Best free bet offers<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/accumulator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Football accumulator tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-articles-list\">\n                <div class=\"sq-cards\">\n                                           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class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"\" \/>                            <\/a>\n                        <\/div>\n                                        <div class=\"sq-card__content\">\n                        <div class=\"sq-card__meta\">\n                            <span class=\"sq-card__label\">News<\/span>\n                            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/lafc-vs-real-salt-lake-predictions-betting-tips\/\" class=\"sq-card__title\">\n                                <h2 class=\"sq-card__title-text\">\n                                    LAFC vs Real Salt Lake: predictions, best bets and latest odds                                <\/h2>\n                            <\/a>\n                        <\/div>\n                        <div class=\"sq-card__excerpt\">\n                                                            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/author\/andrewfrancis\/\" class=\"sq-card__link\">\n                                    Andy Francis                                <\/a>\n                                                        <time class=\"sq-card__label\">1 day ago<\/time>\n                        <\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                <\/article>\n                    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Benfica and Real Madrid meet in a high-stakes UEFA Champions League showdown at Est\u00e1dio da Luz, with kick-off set for 20:00 on 16 February 2026. This&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2529,"featured_media":1433304,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"Benfica vs Real Madrid, Champions League betting tips, Mbapp\u00e9 anytime scorer, over 2.5 goals, football stats, betting offers","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Benfica vs Real Madrid: predictions, stats, tips & odds","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Get the Squawka Bet predictions, stats and betting tips ahead of the Champions League match between Benfica and Real Madrid on Tuesday 17 February.","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"news-category":[],"class_list":["post-1433305","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Benfica vs Real Madrid: predictions, stats, tips &amp; 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