{"id":1425776,"date":"2026-01-22T09:28:39","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T09:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?post_type=news&p=1425776"},"modified":"2026-01-22T09:28:41","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T09:28:41","slug":"match-preview-st-pauli-vs-hamburg-23-01-26-bundesliga","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/match-preview-st-pauli-vs-hamburg-23-01-26-bundesliga\/","title":{"rendered":"St. Pauli vs Hamburg: predictions, stats, tips & odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

St. Pauli<\/a> host Hamburg<\/a> in a fiercely anticipated derby that carries extra weight given both sides’ precarious league positions. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having beaten Hamburg away earlier this season, St. Pauli will be hoping their recent head-to-head edge can inspire a much-needed home performance. Kick-off is set for 19:30 on Friday at the Millerntor-Stadion, with both clubs seeking vital points to climb out of trouble as the Bundesliga<\/a> campaign enters its second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Best Bets & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Based on both teams’ season trends, our top betting recommendations focus on marginal attacking and disciplinary edges. We’re especially confident in the value on Robert Glatzel to score anytime<\/strong>, given Hamburg’s slight attacking superiority and his key role up front. The derby’s combative nature also points to strong interest in the red card market, with Hamburg’s discipline a recurring issue this term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Our Prediction<\/th>\nOdds & Bookmaker<\/th>\nConfidence<\/th>\nWhy We’re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Robert Glatzel Anytime Scorer<\/strong><\/td>\n9\/5 @ Betfair<\/a>
(35.7%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nWe are backing Glatzel to score anytime as Hamburg have the edge in expected goals (xG 15.44) and big chances created, while St. Pauli’s defence has leaked 31 goals in 17 games. Glatzel leads the line for Hamburg and will be the focal point in a fixture that often sees defensive lapses.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
St. Pauli to Win<\/strong><\/td>\n6\/4 @ Betfair<\/a>
(40.0%)<\/td>\n		\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\nThere could be value here due to St. Pauli’s recent head-to-head win away at Hamburg and their better discipline record (just 1 red card compared to Hamburg’s 6). Hamburg’s away form is shaky and St. Pauli, despite being bottom, have shown fight in derbies.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n

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    Season Form & Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Both clubs are in the midst of a relegation scrap, with Hamburg 14th and St. Pauli bottom. Hamburg have claimed 17 points from 17 games, while St. Pauli sit on 12. Neither side has found consistent form, but Hamburg\u2019s slightly better defensive record and additional clean sheets give them a marginal edge in the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Team<\/th>\nPos<\/th>\nP<\/th>\nW<\/th>\nD<\/th>\nL<\/th>\nGF<\/th>\nGA<\/th>\nGD<\/th>\nPts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    Hamburg<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n-10<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    St. Pauli<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n-15<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

    Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n