{"id":1419559,"date":"2025-12-18T09:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?post_type=news&#038;p=1419559"},"modified":"2025-12-17T21:24:56","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T21:24:56","slug":"match-preview-mainz-vs-st-pauli-21-12-25-bundesliga","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/match-preview-mainz-vs-st-pauli-21-12-25-bundesliga\/","title":{"rendered":"Mainz vs St. Pauli: predictions, stats, tips &amp; odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mainz 05 welcome St. Pauli to the MEWA Arena in a high-stakes Bundesliga clash, with both sides desperately searching for a turnaround in form. The match kicks off on Sunday, 21 December at 2:30pm, offering a crucial opportunity for Mainz to extend their head-to-head dominance after two comprehensive wins last season. St. Pauli, meanwhile, arrive with technical credentials but carry the weight of recent profligacy and a poor record against these opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-best-bets-amp-predictions\">Best Bets &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on the data, this match shapes up as a battle of weaknesses rather than strengths, but Mainz\u2019s knack for converting big chances and their spotless record against St. Pauli gives them the edge. Here are our top betting recommendations. We\u2019re particularly confident in Mainz to win, with their head-to-head edge and home advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Our Prediction<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Odds &amp; Bookmaker<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confidence<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Why We&#8217;re Backing It<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Mainz to Win<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=gb-all-aiv-wof-s-spo\">20\/21 @ Bet365<\/a><br>(51.2%)<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Unbeaten vs St. Pauli in last 2, flawless record (5-0 aggregate), home advantage.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Under 2.5 Goals<\/strong><\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=gb-all-aiv-wof-s-spo\">4\/6 @ Bet365<\/a><br>(60.0%)<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Both sides average less than a goal per match; two lowest-scoring teams.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"vcsw-sports-widgets shortcode vcsw-market-fixtures\" id=\"markets-1\"><script type=\"application\/json\">{\"sports_type\":\"football\",\"event\":{\"_id\":\"6861d5ec566e672f1bd7f0f6\",\"sports_type\":\"football\",\"competition_season\":{\"_id\":\"682be3423d4ff932ec654e07\",\"sports_type\":\"football\",\"competition\":\"Bundesliga\",\"country\":\"Germany\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-26T00:00:00+00:00\",\"end_date\":\"2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00\",\"season\":\"2025\\\/2026\",\"start_date\":\"2025-08-22T00:00:00+00:00\",\"tags\":[\"routine_fixture\"],\"updated_at\":\"2026-05-22T23:55:30+00:00\",\"stages\":[{\"stage_id\":\"698b2ac681ff06d75c1e8283\",\"stage_name\":\"Regular Season\",\"standings_available\":true}]},\"created_at\":\"2025-06-30T00:10:20+00:00\",\"datetime\":\"2025-12-21T14:30:00+00:00\",\"name\":\"Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli\",\"participants\":[{\"participant_id\":\"665db6ede93e306d7f46abeb\",\"name\":\"Mainz 05\",\"side\":\"home\",\"formation\":null,\"result\":{\"half_time\":0,\"full_time\":0,\"extra_time\":null,\"penalties\":null,\"total\":0}},{\"participant_id\":\"667aab10773e0180d8f65025\",\"name\":\"St. Pauli\",\"side\":\"away\",\"formation\":null,\"result\":{\"half_time\":0,\"full_time\":0,\"extra_time\":null,\"penalties\":null,\"total\":0}}],\"selections\":[{\"channel_id\":1728,\"channel_name\":\"BBC iPlayer\",\"channel_shortname\":\"BBC iPlayer\",\"channel_url\":null,\"channel_slug\":\"bbc-iplayer\",\"channel_coverage\":\"national\",\"is_streaming\":true,\"sprite_class\":\"icons-channels-default\",\"channel_logo_url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/feed-orch-prd.s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com\\\/channel-logos\\\/bbc-iplayer.svg\"}],\"stage\":\"Regular Season\",\"status\":\"finished\",\"status_detailed\":\"played\",\"tags\":[\"routine_fixture\"],\"updated_at\":\"2025-12-28T23:55:30+00:00\",\"venue\":\"MEWA ARENA\"},\"data_markets\":[{\"_id\":\"Match Result\",\"name\":\"Match Result\"},{\"_id\":\"Anytime Goalscorer\",\"name\":\"Anytime Goalscorer\"},{\"_id\":\"Both Teams To Score\",\"name\":\"Both Teams To Score\"},{\"_id\":\"Over\\\/Under 3.5 Cards\",\"name\":\"Over\\\/Under 3.5 Cards\"},{\"_id\":\"Correct Score\",\"name\":\"Correct Score\"},{\"_id\":\"Player Shots On Target\",\"name\":\"Player Shots On Target\"},{\"_id\":\"Player To Be Carded\",\"name\":\"Player To Be Carded\"}],\"active_market\":\"\",\"show_title\":\"false\",\"limit_markets\":\"\",\"widget_type\":\"markets\"}<\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><small>Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Season Form &amp; Standings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>2025\/26 Bundesliga season to date.<br>Both Mainz 05 and St. Pauli sit at the wrong end of the table after 14 matches, each conceding heavily and struggling in attack. Mainz have just one win and a -13 goal difference, while St. Pauli, marginally better, have three wins but also a -13 GD \u2013 underscoring the lack of firepower and defensive solidity in both camps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Team<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pos<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">P<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">W<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">L<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">GF<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">GA<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">GD<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pts<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">St. Pauli<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">16<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">14<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">26<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-13<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mainz 05<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">18<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">14<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">26<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-13<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SquawkaBet\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-1024x114.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1415389\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-1024x114.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-300x33.jpg 300w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-768x86.jpg 768w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-1536x171.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-400x45.jpg 400w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-600x67.jpg 600w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-538x60.jpg 538w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-150x17.jpg 150w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1-40x4.jpg 40w, https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2025\/11\/28163831\/Group-14764-1.jpg 1792w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Potential Match-Winners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Neither side boasts a prolific scorer or creator, with both lacking representatives among the league\u2019s top marksmen or assist leaders. For Mainz, Nelson Weiper stands out as a potential threat (offered at 2\/1 to score anytime), while for St. Pauli, the creative burden is shared with no individual shining\u2014reflected by a poor conversion rate: just 5 of 17 big chances taken (29%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Defensively, Mainz\u2019s discipline is a concern\u201433 yellow and 5 red cards in 14 matches\u2014while St. Pauli\u2019s backline, despite better technical build-up, often buckles under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Head-to-Head: Last 2 Meetings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Mainz have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning both encounters last season by a combined score of 5-0. St. Pauli failed to register a single goal across those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"\" data-align=\"center\">Date<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Score<\/th>\n<th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Competition<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">22\/02\/25<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mainz 05 2-0 St. Pauli<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Bundesliga<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">05\/10\/24<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">St. Pauli 0-3 Mainz 05<\/td>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Bundesliga<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Will Mainz 05 maintain their psychological edge and exploit St. Pauli\u2019s wastefulness in front of goal? With both teams desperate for points, the data leans towards a tight contest, but Mainz\u2019s head-to-head superiority and knack for making big chances count tips the balance. Backing Mainz to win at <a href=\"\/en\/go\/bet365?q=gb-all-con-wof-s-spo\">20\/21 with Bet365<\/a> (51.2%) looks the standout selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><small>Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Read more:<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/\"><strong>Latest football news<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Football betting tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Best betting sites<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/best-free-bet-offers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Best free bet offers<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/accumulator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Football accumulator tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-articles-list\">\n                <div class=\"sq-cards\">\n                                           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          <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction<br \/>\nMainz 05 welcome St. Pauli to the MEWA Arena in a high-stakes Bundesliga clash, with both sides desperately searching for a turnaround in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2529,"featured_media":1419558,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli, Bundesliga predictions, football tips, betting offers, odds, head-to-head, best bets","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli: predictions, stats, tips & odds","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Get the Squawka Bet predictions, stats and betting tips ahead of the Bundesliga match between Mainz and St Pauli on Sunday 21 December.","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"news-category":[],"class_list":["post-1419559","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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