{"id":1517361,"date":"2026-11-10T12:19:28","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T12:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?post_type=features&#038;p=1517361"},"modified":"2026-11-10T12:21:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T12:21:30","slug":"tactical-explainer-what-is-xg","status":"publish","type":"features","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/features\/tactical-explainer-what-is-xg\/","title":{"rendered":"Tactical Explainer: What is xG and is it still relevant today?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Goals (xG) has become increasingly prevalent among statisticians, and its growing use in the media has made it part of the wider football discourse.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like most things in the sport, xG divides opinion. While its backers see it as a fairer assessment of a team\u2019s attacking play, critics view it as another example of the game\u2019s descent into data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/arcade\/daily-matrix\/\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;margin:24px 0;border-radius:14px;overflow:hidden;padding:22px 26px;box-shadow:0 4px 18px rgba(34,3,74,.3);background-image:linear-gradient(100deg,#6F00FF 22%,rgba(157,102,255,.12) 88%),url('data:image\/svg+xml,%3csvg%20width=%27100%25%27%20height=%27100%25%27%20xmlns=%27http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg%27%20preserveAspectRatio=%27none%27%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cpattern%20id=%27pattern%27%20x=%270%27%20y=%270%27%20width=%2719.11%27%20height=%2743.05%27%20patternUnits=%27userSpaceOnUse%27%20patternTransform=%27rotate(-45)%20scale(1.8)%27%3e%3cpath%20d=%27M-9.37,38.5l-.19-19.11,19.11-.19c.11,10.56-8.36,19.2-18.92,19.3Z%27%20fill=%27%2322034a%27\/%3e%3cpath%20d=%27M18.92,0%20l0.19,20%20l-19.11,0.19%20C-0.11,8.74,8.36,0.11,18.92,0%20Z%27%20fill=%27%2322034a%27\/%3e%3cpath%20d=%27M9.74,38.18l-.19-19.11,19.11-.19c.11,10.56-8.36,19.19-18.92,19.3Z%27%20fill=%27%2322034a%27\/%3e%3c\/pattern%3e%3c\/defs%3e%3crect%20width=%27100%25%27%20height=%27100%25%27%20fill=%27url(%23pattern)%27\/%3e%3c\/svg%3e'),linear-gradient(135deg,#9D66FF 10%,#6F00FF 90%);background-size:100% 100%;background-repeat:repeat\">\n  <div style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:18px;flex-wrap:wrap\">\n    <div style=\"min-width:220px;flex:1\">\n      <div style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:24px;font-weight:900;font-style:italic;letter-spacing:-0.01em;line-height:1.15\">DAILY MATRIX<\/div>\n      <div style=\"color:#f0e9ff;font-size:14.5px;line-height:1.45;margin-top:6px;max-width:560px\">Think you know your stats? Guess the mystery footballer from a Comparison Matrix card &mdash; one new player every day. Keep your &#128293; streak alive.<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;gap:18px;flex-wrap:wrap\">\n      <div style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;background:rgba(24,15,62,.72);border:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.14);border-radius:12px;padding:10px 16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n        <div style=\"position:relative;width:44px;height:44px;flex:none\">\n          <div style=\"position:absolute;top:2px;left:13px;width:18px;height:18px;border-radius:50%;background:#140b33\"><\/div>\n          <div style=\"position:absolute;bottom:0;left:5px;width:34px;height:17px;border-radius:17px 17px 0 0;background:#140b33\"><\/div>\n          <div style=\"position:absolute;top:1px;left:0;width:44px;text-align:center;color:#a78bfa;font-size:21px;font-weight:900\">?<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n        <div style=\"width:120px\">\n          <div style=\"display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:baseline;margin-bottom:5px\">\n            <span style=\"color:#d6cffc;font-size:11px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase\">Goals<\/span>\n            <span style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:14px;font-weight:800\">14<\/span>\n          <\/div>\n          <div style=\"height:8px;border-radius:999px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.16)\">\n            <div style=\"width:72%;height:8px;border-radius:999px;background:#22c55e\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <span style=\"background:#ede4ff;color:#6F00FF;font-size:13px;font-weight:800;letter-spacing:.04em;text-transform:uppercase;padding:12px 24px;border-radius:999px;white-space:nowrap\">Play today&rsquo;s card &rarr;<\/span>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/a>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read on to discover what xG is, how it works and whether it is still relevant today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>In this article we&#8217;ll cover:<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-what-is-xg\" data-level=\"2\">What is xG?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-is-it-still-relevant-today\" data-level=\"2\">Is it still relevant today?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-is-xg\">What is xG?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early football statisticians used variations of xG in the 1960s, but Vic Barnett articulated the concept in 1993, followed by later research by Richard Pollard, Samuel Taylor and Jake Ensum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opta officially started using the metric in 2012, but it became more prominent after broadcasters widely adopted it in 2017, with Match of the Day first using it that year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Put simply, xG measures the likelihood that a player will score from a given chance, which in turn estimates how many goals a team should score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The factors considered include distance from goal, angle, shot type, pattern of play and the previous action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An opportunity with an xG of 0.5 means the player is judged to have a 50 per cent chance of scoring. These values are tallied across matches and seasons to assess a team\u2019s overall performance, giving a deeper look at the data beyond points earned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-is-it-still-relevant-today\">Is it still relevant today?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Expected goals can be extremely useful for assessing the overall performance of a team and its players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysts and pundits use it to interpret the quality of chances a team has created in a game and over a longer period, offering a more in-depth look at attacking play than simply how many shots a side has taken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Managers can be criticised for using it to defend their side\u2019s performances when results are poor, though a team that loses 1-0 but created 2.5 xG has arguably performed better than their opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The growing use of this data has led supporters to liken it to goal difference, since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/features\/premier-league-xg-table\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">teams with the best xG<\/a> tend to finish towards the top of the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The metric is also used in player recruitment, as it can identify underlying trends. A player who consistently outperforms their xG becomes an obvious target in the transfer market, while clubs with a low xG may look for more creative players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, if a defence concedes a low xG, it suggests their defensive approach is working, so a recruitment team may look at other positions when trying to strengthen the squad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those who deride it often end up using its own logic to argue it is needless. For instance, does a high xG tell us anything more than that a team created the better chances? Conversely, does a team with a high xG but few goals need a new forward, or are they just unlucky?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">xG is not perfect, and several companies produce this data using different criteria, so numbers can vary significantly across platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For instance, some providers consider the position of defenders while others don\u2019t, and some may not account for an attacker\u2019s ability to create space or the likelihood that they will pass the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Read more:<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/premier-league\/\"><strong>Premier League predictions &amp; tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/outright-markets\/premier-league-title-odds\/\"><strong>Premier League outright odds <\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/\"><strong>Latest football news<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Best betting sites<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/betting-sites\/best-free-bet-offers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Best free bet offers<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/accumulator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Football accumulator tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-articles-list\">\n                    <h2 class=\"sq-heading-line\">Latest Features<\/h2>\n                <div class=\"sq-cards\">\n                            <article class=\"sq-card\">\n                                            <div class=\"sq-card__thumbnail\">\n                            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/features\/tactical-explainer-what-is-xg\/\" class=\"sq-thumbnail\">\n                                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/11\/10121916\/stat-explainer-what-is-xg-150x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"Stat explainer: What is xG? 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       <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/features\/nottingham-forest-vs-man-city-stats-and-analysis-how-glasner-worked-his-magic-facing-citizens-yet-again\/\" class=\"sq-thumbnail\">\n                                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2026\/11\/07195412\/ForestCity071126_ID3G24KHM-150x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"\" \/>                            <\/a>\n                        <\/div>\n                                        <div class=\"sq-card__content\">\n                        <div class=\"sq-card__meta\">\n                            <span class=\"sq-card__label\">Features<\/span>\n                            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/features\/nottingham-forest-vs-man-city-stats-and-analysis-how-glasner-worked-his-magic-facing-citizens-yet-again\/\" class=\"sq-card__title\">\n                                <h2 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Like most things in the sport, xG divides opinion. While its backers see it as a fairer assessment of a team\u2019s attacking play, critics view it as another example of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":370,"featured_media":1517362,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"what is xg","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"What is xG? Get the Squawka explainer on how expected goals works, where it came from, how clubs and analysts use it and why it divides opinion.","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"features-category":[],"squawka-category":[27680],"class_list":["post-1517361","features","type-features","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","squawka-category-tactical-explainers"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.8 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tactical Explainer: What is xG and is it still relevant today? | Squawka | EN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is xG? 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