{"id":1468331,"date":"2026-07-14T12:36:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T11:36:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/?post_type=features&#038;p=1468331"},"modified":"2026-07-14T12:36:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T11:36:09","slug":"2026-world-cup-xg-semi-finalists","status":"publish","type":"features","link":"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/features\/2026-world-cup-xg-semi-finalists\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 World Cup based on xG: Alternative semi-finalists according to Expected Goals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/world-cup-2026-betting-tips-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2026 World Cup<\/a> is now at the semi-finals stage. But we&#8217;re presenting an alternate lineup based on Expected Goals (xG).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While games are won on goals scored and conceded, xG can be used to show how matches went in terms of dominance. You could go as far as to say it shows who deserves to win matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, what would the World Cup semi-final lineup look like if xG did decide matches? And what if it was based on the teams with the best xG difference? We&#8217;ve taken a look.<\/p>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"1382069\"\n            data-offer-id=\"1382068\"\n    >\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/spreadex?q=gb-all-top-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Spreadex\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"10\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#000000\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2022\/12\/25112611\/1287684_1287684_spread-ex_-300x169.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" 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Full T&amp;Cs apply.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content-text-holder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>2026 World Cup xG stats<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-world-cup-semi-finalists-based-on-xg-results\" data-level=\"2\">World Cup semi-finalists based on xG results<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-world-cup-semi-finalists-based-on-xg-difference\" data-level=\"2\">World Cup semi-finalists based on xG difference<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-world-cup-semi-finalists-based-on-xg-results\">World Cup semi-finalists based on xG results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>First off, let&#8217;s look at the semi-finals if the actual quarter-finals were won on xG. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-france-vs-morocco\">France vs Morocco<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Actual result: <\/strong>France 2-0 Morocco<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG result:<\/strong> France 2.22-0.36 Morocco<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG winner:<\/strong> France<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The first quarter-final went pretty much as it should have, based on xG. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/france\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/france\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">France<\/a> dominated the game with 22 shots to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/morocco\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Morocco<\/a>&#8216;s five, with eight on target to one. It really wasn&#8217;t a contest in terms of attacking threat, and Morocco were trying to keep France out as long as they could. France had to wait until the 60th minute to get their first goal, but it was duly deserved. As was their victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spain-vs-belgium\">Spain vs Belgium<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Actual result: <\/strong>Spain 2-1 Belgium<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG result:<\/strong> Spain 1.85-0.31 Belgium<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG winner:<\/strong> Spain<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/spain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Spain<\/a> left it late to beat <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/belgium\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Belgium<\/a> in their quarter-final, with Mikel Merino scoring the winner in the 88th minute. And there was a bit of fortune with a goalkeeper error leading to the goal. But the result seemed to be pretty fair on the balance of things. Spain ran the show with over two-thirds of the possession and 17 shots to Belgium&#8217;s five. <em>La Roja<\/em> hit the target eight times too, with Belgium only really testing Unai Simon twice &#8212; including once for their goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-norway-vs-england\">Norway vs England<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Actual result: <\/strong>Norway 1-2 England<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG result:<\/strong> Norway 1.05-0.79 England<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG winner:<\/strong> Norway<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The first difference in quarter-final results. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/england\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">England<\/a> would be out of the World Cup if their game was decided on xG. Like Spain, England needed a goalkeeper error to get their winner against <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/norway\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Norway<\/a>, with Jude Bellingham tapping in after a fumbled save. The two sides were pretty evenly match with England having 14 shots to Norway&#8217;s 13. But even with England doubling Norway&#8217;s shots on target (eight to four), it was the Vikings who had the higher xG. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-argentina-vs-switzerland\">Argentina vs Switzerland<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Actual result: <\/strong>Argentina 3-1 Switzerland<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG result:<\/strong> Argentina 2.24-0.60 Switzerland<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG winner:<\/strong> Argentina<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The final semi-finalist would be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/argentina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Argentina<\/a>, another result that went as expected. Although Argentina needed extra time against 10-men to beat <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/switzerland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Switzerland<\/a>, xG showed that the result was correct. They had double Switzerland&#8217;s total shots with 22 to 11, though they only had two more efforts on target (seven to five). Argentina hounded the Switzerland defence, boasting 34 touches in the opposition box, particularly once the European side looked to sit deep with their disadvantage.<\/p>\n\n\n    <div class=\"sq-toplist\">\n        <div class=\"sq-toplist__items\">\n\t\t\t    <div\n            class=\"sq-toplist__item\"\n            data-entity-id=\"1382069\"\n            data-offer-id=\"1382068\"\n    >\n\t\t        <div class=\"sq-toplist__item-container\">\n            <div class=\"sq-toplist__offer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/go\/spreadex?q=gb-all-top-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Spreadex\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"10\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"logo\" class=\"sq-toplist__logo\" style=\"background:#000000\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/media.squawka.com\/images\/2022\/12\/25112611\/1287684_1287684_spread-ex_-300x169.png\" 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          <a href=\"\/en\/go\/spreadex?q=gb-all-top-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Spreadex\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"10\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"brand_name\">Spreadex<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                    <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-tablet-visible\">\n                        <a href=\"\/en\/go\/spreadex?q=gb-all-top-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-brand=\"Spreadex\"data-placement=\"bookmaker-offers-content-toplist\" data-rating=\"10\" data-position=\"1\" data-placement-details=\"offer\">Bet \u00a310 Get Up To \u00a360 In Free Bets<\/a>                    <\/span>\n                <\/div>\n                <span class=\"sq-toplist__offer-title is-mobile-visible\">\n                    <a href=\"\/en\/go\/spreadex?q=gb-all-top-wof-s-spo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" 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The promotion will run from 11th March 2025 until discontinued by Spreadex Ltd. using its reasonable discretion, (&#8220;Promotion Period&#8221;). Offer can only be used once per customer. Full T&amp;Cs apply.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content-text-holder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-world-cup-semi-finalists-based-on-xg-difference\">World Cup semi-finalists based on xG difference<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>What if the semi-finals were decided on xG across the tournament as a whole? The top four teams with the best attacks and defences, hurting opposition defences while offering up very little at the other end of the pitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-argentina\">Argentina<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>xG For: <\/strong>12.79<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Against: <\/strong>3.73<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Difference: <\/strong>+9.06<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There has been a lot of talk surrounding Argentina at the World Cup and the level they&#8217;ve been playing at. To the eye, they have relied heavily on Lionel Messi and are only in the semi-finals because of his work. Messi has definitely played a role in their xG being the highest at the World Cup so far, at 12.79. But Messi isn&#8217;t a defender. He won&#8217;t have had much impact on Argentina facing a pretty decent 3.73 xG against. They&#8217;re the best team at the World Cup in terms of xG difference going into the semi-finals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spain\">Spain<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>xG For: <\/strong>10.57<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Against: <\/strong>2.15<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Difference: <\/strong>+8.42<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Spain have definitely been more about a strong defence than threatening attack. But they&#8217;ve still managed to be one of just four teams to have at least 10 xG across the World Cup this summer. Sure, that&#8217;s helped by the fact that they have reached the semi-finals, but not all of the final four have hit that stage yet. Of course, the defence has definitely played a part too. They&#8217;ve only faced 2.15 xG against at the World Cup, which is actually the second-lowest of all 48 teams. The only team lower than them, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/uruguay\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Uruguay<\/a>, were knocked out in the group stages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canada\">Canada<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>xG For: <\/strong>8.63<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Against: <\/strong>2.32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Difference: <\/strong>+6.31<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not a name anyone would have expected to see here. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/canada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Canada<\/a>&#8216;s xG difference of +6.32 is certainly helped by their big win over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/qatar\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Qatar<\/a>. They posted 4.19 xG in that match alone, while conceding just 0.09. But Canada also only faced 0.11 xG in their last-32 win over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/stats\/clubs\/south-africa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">South Africa<\/a>. And they even beat Morocco on xG, at 0.62 to 0.45. But, crucially, Morocco took their chances, while Canada didn&#8217;t, to seal the 3-0 win for the Atlas Lions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-france\">France<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>xG For: <\/strong>9.36<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Against: <\/strong>3.39<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>xG Difference: <\/strong>+5.97<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Another team that won&#8217;t be a surprise. France are favourites to win the World Cup and have a strong team at both ends of the pitch. However, they are the only actual semi-finalist to have an xG return lower than 10. Still, their xG has been pretty consistent across the World Cup and they&#8217;ve stepped things up in the knockout stages. <em>Les Bleus<\/em> blew Morocco away in the quarter-finals, with 2.22 xG to just 0.36 Against. Only Norway have really given them problems at the other end of the pitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Team<\/th><th>Expected Goals For<\/th><th>Expected Goals Against<\/th><th>Expected Goals Difference<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Argentina<\/td><td>12.79<\/td><td>3.73<\/td><td>+9.06<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spain<\/td><td>10.57<\/td><td>2.15<\/td><td>+8.42<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Canada<\/td><td>8.63<\/td><td>2.32<\/td><td>+6.31<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>France<\/td><td>9.36<\/td><td>3.39<\/td><td>+5.97<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Germany<\/td><td>9.74<\/td><td>3.93<\/td><td>+5.81<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brazil<\/td><td>8.32<\/td><td>3.59<\/td><td>+4.73<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Colombia<\/td><td>7.32<\/td><td>2.71<\/td><td>+4. 61<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Belgium<\/td><td>12.16<\/td><td>7.61<\/td><td>+4.55<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>England<\/td><td>10.42<\/td><td>6.34<\/td><td>+4.08<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Turkey<\/td><td>6.48<\/td><td>2.92<\/td><td>+3.56<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Read more:<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/bet\/football-tips\/world-cup-2026-betting-tips-predictions\/\"><strong>World Cup predictions &amp; tips<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/outright-markets\/world-cup-outright-odds\/\"><strong>World Cup outright odds <\/strong><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/news\/world-cup-2026-fixtures-results\/\"><b>World Cup fixtures &amp; results<\/b><\/a><\/li>\r\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.squawka.com\/en\/world-cup-2026-betting-offers\/\"><b>World Cup free bets<\/b><\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2026 World Cup is now at the semi-finals stage. But we&#8217;re presenting an alternate lineup based on Expected Goals (xG). While games are won on goals scored and conceded, xG can be used to show how matches went in terms of dominance. You could go as far as to say it shows who deserves&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":1468351,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"2026 world cup xg","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"2026 World Cup xG: Who would be in the semi-finals if results were determined by Expected Goals? Would there have been any upsets?","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"features-category":[],"squawka-category":[27631],"class_list":["post-1468331","features","type-features","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","squawka-category-world-cup"],"acf":{"external_featured_image_url":"","hide_featured_image_pattern":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2026 World Cup based on xG: Alternative semi-finalists according to Expected Goals | Squawka | EN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2026 World Cup xG: Who would be in the semi-finals if results were determined by Expected Goals? 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